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Time-varying risk aversion: An application to energy hedging

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  • Cotter, John
  • Hanly, Jim

Abstract

Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 432-441

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:2:p:432-441
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

Keywords: Energy Hedging Risk management Risk aversion Forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  16. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 2000. "Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 6130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Demirer, Riza & Lien, Donald & Shaffer, David R., 2005. "Comparisons of short and long hedge performance: the case of Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 51-66, February.
  18. Moosa, Imad A. & Al-Loughani, Nabeel E., 1994. "Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 99-105, April.
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  21. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
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Cited by:

  1. Cotter, John & Hanly, Jim, 2012. "A utility based approach to energy hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 817-827.
  2. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John, 2013. "Downside risk and the energy hedger's horizon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 371-379.

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