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Time-varying risk aversion: An application to energy hedging

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Listed author(s):
  • Cotter, John
  • Hanly, Jim

Abstract

Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 432-441

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:2:p:432-441
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

Keywords: Energy Hedging Risk management Risk aversion Forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
  2. John Cotter & Jim Hanly, 2006. "Reevaluating hedging performance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 677-702, 07.
  3. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
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  5. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
  6. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-630, November.
  7. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  9. Demirer, Riza & Lien, Donald & Shaffer, David R., 2005. "Comparisons of short and long hedge performance: the case of Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 51-66, February.
  10. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
  11. Lence, Sergio H., 1995. "On the optimal hedge under unbiased futures prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 385-388, March.
  12. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  13. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
  14. Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-488, July.
  15. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1989. " The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 307-325, June.
  16. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  18. Julia Devlin, 2004. "Managing Oil Price Risk in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 19(1), pages 119-139.
  19. Sadorsky, Perry, 2002. "Time-varying risk premiums in petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 539-556, November.
  20. Paul Stevens, 2005. "Oil Markets," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 19-42, Spring.
  21. Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-317, June.
  22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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Cited by:

  1. Cotter, John & Hanly, Jim, 2012. "A utility based approach to energy hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 817-827.
  2. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
  3. repec:eee:appene:v:196:y:2017:i:c:p:152-161 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John, 2013. "Downside risk and the energy hedger's horizon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 371-379.
  5. Cotter, John & Hanly, Jim, 2015. "Performance of utility based hedges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 718-726.

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