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Time-varying risk aversion: An application to energy hedging

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  • Cotter, John
  • Hanly, Jim

Abstract

Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 432-441

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:2:p:432-441
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

Keywords: Energy Hedging Risk management Risk aversion Forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
  • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  2. John Cotter & Jim Hanly, 2006. "Reevaluating hedging performance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 677-702, 07.
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  16. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  17. Moosa, Imad A. & Al-Loughani, Nabeel E., 1994. "Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 99-105, April.
  18. Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-17, June.
  19. Demirer, Riza & Lien, Donald & Shaffer, David R., 2005. "Comparisons of short and long hedge performance: the case of Taiwan," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 51-66, February.
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Cited by:

  1. Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John, 2013. "Downside risk and the energy hedger's horizon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 371-379.
  2. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
  3. John Cotter & Jim Hanly, 2014. "Performance of Utility Based Hedges," Working Papers 201404, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  4. John Cotter & Jim Hanly, 2011. "A Utility Based Approach to Energy Hedging," Working Papers 201106, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.

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