IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Understanding the impacts of product knowledge and product type on the accuracy of intentions-based new product predictions

  • Ozer, Muammer
Registered author(s):

    New product development involves several critical decisions. A key decision making area in new product development is the evaluation of the viability and the market potentials of a new product. In the absence of any relevant historical data, companies ask the potential buyers of their products about their intentions to buy those products when assessing their viability. Despite the popularity of the use of behavioral intentions in predicting the market acceptance of new product ideas, both survey and empirical studies suggest that the accuracy of such predictions is usually very low. Although earlier case-based studies suggest that a number of factors can affect the quality of new product decisions, it is still empirically unclear how product knowledge and the type of new products might impact the predictive accuracy of intentions-based new product forecasting. This study utilized a longitudinal research design and empirically tested the hypotheses across two new products. The study first collected purchase intentions data about the new products. Second, it collected subsequent actual purchase data about the new products. The results of series of hierarchical regression analyses comparing the initial purchase intentions and subsequent actual behaviors showed that while product knowledge is positively related to the predictive accuracy and consistency of intentions-based new product forecasting, product type is negatively related to them.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCT-51TPVS0-1/2/b448a9b875149cdff57cbcf5f3a2ea4a
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

    Volume (Year): 211 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 359-369

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:211:y:2011:i:2:p:359-369
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Li, Yongquan & Zhu, Kaijie, 2009. "Information acquisition in new product introduction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 618-625, October.
    2. Morwitz, Vicki G & Johnson, Eric J & Schmittlein, David C, 1993. " Does Measuring Intent Change Behavior?," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(1), pages 46-61, June.
    3. Zhang, Qingyu & Vonderembse, Mark A. & Cao, Mei, 2009. "Product concept and prototype flexibility in manufacturing: Implications for customer satisfaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 143-154, April.
    4. Robert L. Winkler & Roy M. Poses, 1993. "Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(12), pages 1526-1543, December.
    5. Andreeva, Galina & Ansell, Jake & Crook, Jonathan, 2007. "Modelling profitability using survival combination scores," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1537-1549, December.
    6. D'Acierno, Luca & Cartenì, Armando & Montella, Bruno, 2009. "Estimation of urban traffic conditions using an Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) System," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 719-736, July.
    7. Wilton, Peter C & Pessemier, Edgar A, 1981. " Forecasting the Ultimate Acceptance of an Innovation: The Effects of Information," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(2), pages 162-71, September.
    8. Petty, Richard E & Cacioppo, John T & Schumann, David, 1983. " Central and Peripheral Routes to Advertising Effectiveness: The Moderating Role of Involvement," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(2), pages 135-46, September.
    9. Brucks, Merrie, 1985. " The Effects of Product Class Knowledge on Information Search Behavior," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, June.
    10. Bettman, James R & Park, C Whan, 1980. " Effects of Prior Knowledge and Experience and Phase of the Choice Process on Consumer Decision Processes: A Protocol Analysis," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 234-48, December.
    11. Karniouchina, Ekaterina V. & Moore, William L. & van der Rhee, Bo & Verma, Rohit, 2009. "Issues in the use of ratings-based versus choice-based conjoint analysis in operations management research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 340-348, August.
    12. Harvey, Lewis O., 1992. "The critical operating characteristic and the evaluation of expert judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 229-251, November.
    13. Sohn, So Young & Lim, Michael, 2008. "The effect of forecasting and information sharing in SCM for multi-generation products," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 276-287, April.
    14. Alba, Joseph W & Hutchinson, J Wesley, 2000. " Knowledge Calibration: What Consumers Know and What They Think They Know," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(2), pages 123-56, September.
    15. López-Gamero, María D. & Claver-Cortés, Enrique & Molina-Azorín, José F., 2009. "Evaluating environmental regulation in Spain using process control and preventive techniques," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 497-518, June.
    16. Ozer, Muammer, 2008. "Improving the accuracy of expert predictions of the future success of new internet services," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 1085-1099, February.
    17. von Winterfeldt, Detlof & Fasolo, Barbara, 2009. "Structuring decision problems: A case study and reflections for practitioners," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 857-866, December.
    18. Temponi, Cecilia & Bryant, Michael D. & Fernandez, Benito, 2009. "Integration of business function models into an aggregate enterprise systems model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 793-800, December.
    19. Shanteau, James, 1992. "Competence in experts: The role of task characteristics," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 252-266, November.
    20. Pangburn, Michael S. & Sundaresan, Shankar, 2009. "Capacity decisions for high-tech products with obsolescence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 102-111, August.
    21. Ma, T. & Grubler, A. & Nakamori, Y., 2009. "Modeling technology adoptions for sustainable development under increasing returns, uncertainty, and heterogeneous agents," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 296-306, May.
    22. Holden, Ken & Thompson, John & Ruangrit, Yuphin, 2005. "The Asian crisis and calendar effects on stock returns in Thailand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 242-252, May.
    23. F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2, June.
    24. Druehl, Cheryl T. & Schmidt, Glen M. & Souza, Gilvan C., 2009. "The optimal pace of product updates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 621-633, January.
    25. Lin, Jun & Chai, Kah Hin & Brombacher, Aarnout C. & Wong, Yoke San, 2009. "Optimal overlapping and functional interaction in product development," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1158-1169, August.
    26. Reimann, Marc & Schiltknecht, Philippe, 2009. "Studying the interdependence of contractual and operational flexibilities in the market of specialty chemicals," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(3), pages 760-772, November.
    27. Musti, Silvana & D'Ecclesia, Rita Laura, 2008. "Term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis: The euro area," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
    28. Cortés-Aldana, Félix Antonio & García-Melón, Mónica & Fernández-de-Lucio, Ignacio & Aragonés-Beltrán, Pablo & Poveda-Bautista, Rocío, 2009. "University objectives and socioeconomic results: A multicriteria measuring of alignment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 811-822, December.
    29. Granbois, Donald H & Summers, John O, 1975. " Primary and Secondary Validity of Consumer Purchase Probabilities," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(4), pages 31-38, March.
    30. Liesiö, Juuso & Mild, Pekka & Salo, Ahti, 2008. "Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(3), pages 679-695, November.
    31. Ozer, Muammer, 2009. "The roles of product lead-users and product experts in new product evaluation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1340-1349, October.
    32. Forgionne, Guisseppi & Guo, Zhiling, 2009. "Internal supply chain coordination in the electric utility industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 619-627, July.
    33. Ozer, Muammer, 2005. "Factors which influence decision making in new product evaluation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(3), pages 784-801, June.
    34. Martin R. Young & Wayne S. DeSarbo & Vicki G. Morwitz, 1998. "The Stochastic Modeling of Purchase Intentions and Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(2), pages 188-202, February.
    35. Wang, Qinan & Wu, Zhang, 2001. "A duopolistic model of dynamic competitive advertising," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 213-226, January.
    36. Lessmann, Stefan & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2009. "Identifying winners of competitive events: A SVM-based classification model for horserace prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 569-577, July.
    37. Nahra, Tammie A. & Mendez, David & Alexander, Jeffrey A., 2009. "Employing super-efficiency analysis as an alternative to DEA: An application in outpatient substance abuse treatment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1097-1106, August.
    38. Huang, Wei & Swaminathan, Jayashankar M., 2009. "Introduction of a second channel: Implications for pricing and profits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(1), pages 258-279, April.
    39. Saha, Asish & Subramanian, V. & Basu, Sanjay & Mishra, Alok Kumar, 2009. "Networth exposure to interest rate risk: An empirical analysis of Indian commercial banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 581-590, March.
    40. Park, C Whan & Mothersbaugh, David L & Feick, Lawrence, 1994. " Consumer Knowledge Assessment," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 71-82, June.
    41. Kleinmuntz, Don N. & Fennema, M. G. & Peecher, Mark E., 1996. "Conditioned Assessment of Subjective Probabilities: Identifying the Benefits of Decomposition," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 1-15, April.
    42. Cowley, Elizabeth & Mitchell, Andrew A, 2003. " The Moderating Effect of Product Knowledge on the Learning and Organization of Product Information," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 443-54, December.
    43. Rappold, James A. & Van Roo, Ben D., 2009. "Designing multi-echelon service parts networks with finite repair capacity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 781-792, December.
    44. West, Patricia M & Brown, Christina L & Hoch, Stephen J, 1996. " Consumption Vocabulary and Preference Formation," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(2), pages 120-35, September.
    45. Chen, Jiaqiong & Askin, Ronald G., 2009. "Project selection, scheduling and resource allocation with time dependent returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 23-34, February.
    46. Yücel, Eda & Karaesmen, Fikri & Salman, F. Sibel & Türkay, Metin, 2009. "Optimizing product assortment under customer-driven demand substitution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 759-768, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:211:y:2011:i:2:p:359-369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.