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Networth exposure to interest rate risk: An empirical analysis of Indian commercial banks

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  • Saha, Asish
  • Subramanian, V.
  • Basu, Sanjay
  • Mishra, Alok Kumar

Abstract

In the Basel II era, management of interest rate risk in the banking book has become significant. In the first study of its kind, we develop a simulation based driver-driven approach to estimate the impact of interest rate volatility on the networth of Indian banks during the period 2002-2004. We derive the interest rates that drive changes in deposit and prime lending rates (PLR). Then we perform Monte Carlo simulation and multiple regressions, on these driver rates, to obtain simulated shocks to deposit rates and PLR. We use these simulated shocks to get the 99% worst EVE loss for the sample banks. These losses are much larger than what the existing literature suggests. This is because, apart from repricing risk, we are the first to find evidence of significant basis risk. Our results have important policy implications both for banks and regulators.

Suggested Citation

  • Saha, Asish & Subramanian, V. & Basu, Sanjay & Mishra, Alok Kumar, 2009. "Networth exposure to interest rate risk: An empirical analysis of Indian commercial banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 581-590, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:193:y:2009:i:2:p:581-590
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. "Market Evidence on the Effective Maturity of Bank Assets and Liabilities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 435-445, November.
    2. Flannery, Mark J, 1981. "Market Interest Rates and Commercial Bank Profitability: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1085-1101, December.
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    4. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. " The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Common Stock Returns of Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1141-1153, September.
    5. Wetmore, Jill L. & Brick, John R., 1998. "The Basis Risk Component of Commercial Bank Stock Returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 67-76, January.
    6. Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Interest Rate Risk in the Belgian Banking Sector," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 2(1), pages 157-179, June.
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    8. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    9. Quémard, J L. & Golitin, V., 2005. "Interest rate risk in the French banking system," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 6, pages 81-94, June.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Interest Rate Volatility and Risk in Indian Banking," IMF Working Papers 04/17, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ozer, Muammer, 2011. "Understanding the impacts of product knowledge and product type on the accuracy of intentions-based new product predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 359-369, June.
    2. Tsionas, Mike G., 2016. "Parameters measuring bank risk and their estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 291-304.
    3. Francis, Bill & Gupta, Aparna & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2015. "Impact of compensation structure and managerial incentives on bank risk taking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(2), pages 651-676.
    4. Mitra, Sovan & Date, Paresh & Mamon, Rogemar & Wang, I-Chieh, 2013. "Pricing and risk management of interest rate swaps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 102-111.

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