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Impact of the Great Recession on unemployed and NEET individuals’ labour market transitions in Ireland

Author

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  • Kelly, Elish
  • McGuinness, Seamus

Abstract

The impact that the Great Recession has had on countries’ labour markets has been well documented. In Ireland, the contraction in economic activity that took place resulted in the country's overall unemployment rate increasing from 4.6% in 2006 to 15% in 2012. The country's youth unemployment rate rose from 9.9% to 33% over the same time period, while the proportion of NEETs increased from 10.1% in 2006 to 18.7% in 2012. Policymakers are aware of the unemployment rates of young and prime-aged people as well as the NEETs rate. However, little is known about these groups’ profiles, whether their profiles have changed since the recession and also their labour market transition patterns pre and post the Great Recession. Given the importance of this information in the design of effective activation measures to assist unemployed and NEET individuals, this paper examines each of these issues in turn. Overall, the study found for all three groups examined that the rate of transition to employment fell dramatically between 2006 and 2011. The analysis showed that the drop in the groups’ transition rates was not due to changes in the underlying sub-group population structures but to changes in the external environment that resulted in the impact of possessing certain characteristics changing over the recession. For example, education and nationality have become more important in finding a job in Ireland over the course of the recession, while there has been a fall in the scarring impact of unemployment durations.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus, 2015. "Impact of the Great Recession on unemployed and NEET individuals’ labour market transitions in Ireland," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 59-71.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:39:y:2015:i:1:p:59-71
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.06.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Timoney, Kevin & Byrne, David, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20141, April.
    2. Bettina Isengard, 2002. "Youth Unemployment: Individual Risk Factors and Institutional Determinants: A Case Study of Germany and the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 284, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    6. McGinnity, Fran & Russell, Helen & Watson, Dorothy & Kingston, Gillian & Kelly, Elish, 2014. "Winners and Losers? The Equality Impact of the Great Recession in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT265.
    7. Duncan McVicar & Michael Anyadike-Danes, 2002. "Predicting successful and unsuccessful transitions from school to work by using sequence methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(2), pages 317-334.
    8. Rick Audas & Eva Berde & Peter Dolton, 2005. "Youth unemployment and labour market transitions in Hungary," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-25.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kelly, Elish & McGuinness, Seamus & Walsh, John R., 2015. "An Evaluation of the Back to Education Allowance," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS47.
    2. Jeremy W Bray & Brooks Depro & Dorren McMahon & Marion Siegle & Lee Mobley, 2016. "Disconnected Geography: A Spatial Analysis of Disconnected Youth in the United States," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 317-342, September.
    3. repec:eso:journl:v:48:y:2017:i:4:p:463-488 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:quaeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Smyth, Emer & Banks, Joanne & Whelan, Adele & Darmody, Merike & McCoy, Selina, 2015. "Review of the School Completion Programme," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS44.
    6. Brian Nolan & Sarah Voitchovsky, 2016. "Job loss by wage level: lessons from the Great Recession in Ireland," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-29, December.
    7. Kelly, Elish & Barrett, Alan, 2017. "Recent Developments in the Irish Labour Market: Is It All Good News?," IZA Discussion Papers 10541, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Fontes, T. & Pereira, S.R. & Bandeira, J.M. & Coelho, M.C., 2015. "Assessment of the effectiveness of fuel and toll pricing policies in motorway emissions: An ex-post analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, pages 83-93.
    9. Lucia Mýtna Kureková & Zuzana Žilinčíková, 2016. "Are student jobs flexible jobs? Using online data to study employers’ preferences in Slovakia," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Recession; Ireland; Youth unemployment; NEETs; Labour market transitions; Decomposition techniques;

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J40 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - General
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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