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Impact of the Great Recession on unemployed and NEET individuals’ labour market transitions in Ireland

Listed author(s):
  • Kelly, Elish
  • McGuinness, Seamus

The impact that the Great Recession has had on countries’ labour markets has been well documented. In Ireland, the contraction in economic activity that took place resulted in the country's overall unemployment rate increasing from 4.6% in 2006 to 15% in 2012. The country's youth unemployment rate rose from 9.9% to 33% over the same time period, while the proportion of NEETs increased from 10.1% in 2006 to 18.7% in 2012. Policymakers are aware of the unemployment rates of young and prime-aged people as well as the NEETs rate. However, little is known about these groups’ profiles, whether their profiles have changed since the recession and also their labour market transition patterns pre and post the Great Recession. Given the importance of this information in the design of effective activation measures to assist unemployed and NEET individuals, this paper examines each of these issues in turn. Overall, the study found for all three groups examined that the rate of transition to employment fell dramatically between 2006 and 2011. The analysis showed that the drop in the groups’ transition rates was not due to changes in the underlying sub-group population structures but to changes in the external environment that resulted in the impact of possessing certain characteristics changing over the recession. For example, education and nationality have become more important in finding a job in Ireland over the course of the recession, while there has been a fall in the scarring impact of unemployment durations.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362514000971
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 39 (2015)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 59-71

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:39:y:2015:i:1:p:59-71
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.06.004
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  1. Elish Kelly & Seamus McGuinness & Philip J O’connell & David Haugh & Alberto GonzÁlez Pandiella, 2014. "Transitions In and Out of Unemployment among Young People in the Irish Recession," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(4), pages 616-634, December.
  2. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Timoney, Kevin & Byrne, David, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20141, April.
  3. Duncan McVicar & Michael Anyadike-Danes, 2002. "Predicting successful and unsuccessful transitions from school to work by using sequence methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(2), pages 317-334.
  4. Rick Audas & Eva Berde & Peter Dolton, 2005. "Youth unemployment and labour market transitions in Hungary," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-25.
  5. Bettina Isengard, 2002. "Youth Unemployment: Individual Risk Factors and Institutional Determinants: A Case Study of Germany and the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 284, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Harris, Mark N, 1996. "Modelling the Probability of Youth Unemployment in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(217), pages 118-129, June.
  7. Misbah Tanveer Choudhry, 2012. "Youth unemployment rate and impact of financial crises," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 76-95, March.
  8. Stefano Scarpetta & Anne Sonnet & Thomas Manfredi, 2010. "Rising Youth Unemployment During The Crisis: How to Prevent Negative Long-term Consequences on a Generation?," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 106, OECD Publishing.
  9. Paul Ryan, 2001. "The School-to-Work Transition: A Cross-National Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 34-92, March.
  10. Paul Ryan, 2001. "The School-to-Work Transition: A Cross-National Perspective: Corrigendum," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 767-767, September.
  11. McGinnity, Fran & Russell, Helen & Watson, Dorothy & Kingston, Gillian & Kelly, Elish, 2014. "Winners and Losers? The Equality Impact of the Great Recession in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT265, March.
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