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Predicting successful and unsuccessful transitions from school to work by using sequence methods

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  • Duncan McVicar
  • Michael Anyadike‐Danes

Abstract

Policy makers recognize the importance of identifying early young people who are likely to end up jobless on entry to the adult labour market. This paper uses sequence techniques to characterize 712 young peoples' transitions from school to work into `types', with jobless types interpreted as unsuccessful transitions. A logit model is estimated for transition type using a collection of static individual, family and school characteristics. This allows us to identify which young people are most likely to experience unsuccessful transitions into the adult labour market. Policy makers might use such information to target social and educational policy more effectively to promote social inclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Duncan McVicar & Michael Anyadike‐Danes, 2002. "Predicting successful and unsuccessful transitions from school to work by using sequence methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(2), pages 317-334, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:165:y:2002:i:2:p:317-334
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-985X.00641
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Armstrong & Duncan McVicar, 2000. "Value added in further education and vocational training in Northern Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1727-1736.
    2. Cramer, J. S. & Ridder, G., 1991. "Pooling states in the multinomial logit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 267-272, February.
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