IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Entrepreneurial exit in real and imagined markets

  • Roy Thurik
  • F. Stam
  • Peter van der Zwan

Entrepreneurs exit their business due to selection pressures experienced in the market place, i.e. business failure. Next to this well known ex-post decision to exit, entrepreneurs select exantewhether they are willing to pursue an entrepreneurial career at all, or to give up theseentrepreneurial intentions. Hardly anything is known about the latter selection process in imagined markets that precedes the variety creation and selection process in real markets. This paper explores and explains the prevalence of these two selection processes using survey data on 20,000 individuals in 27 European countries and the US in 2007. We distinguish business failures from exit by sell-off. Results indicate that individuals in the US are less likely to exit imagined markets, and are more likely to have exited the real market (especially by selling their business) than Europeans. Individuals in a Corporatist welfare state regime have relatively high chances to exit imagined markets. Business owners in urban environments are more likely to fail, while individuals with a high risk tolerance, a high education and self-employed parents are less likely to exit in imagined as well as in real markets (via business failure). This study shows that exit in real and in imagined markets is differently affected by competition and institutions. These selection environments have differential effects on entrepreneurial aspirations and actions of individuals, and provide evidence for the dissimilar nature of exit in real and exit in imagined markets.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EIM Business and Policy Research in its series Scales Research Reports with number H200720.

in new window

Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 21 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eim:papers:h200720
Contact details of provider: Postal:
P.O. Box 7001, 2701 AA Zoetermeer

Phone: (+31) 79 341 36 34
Fax: (+31) 79 341 50 24
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Casper, Steven & Whitley, Richard, 2004. "Managing competences in entrepreneurial technology firms: a comparative institutional analysis of Germany, Sweden and the UK," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 89-106, January.
  2. Fry, Tim R. L. & Harris, Mark N., 1996. "A Monte Carlo study of tests for the independence of irrelevant alternatives property," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 19-30, February.
  3. Cramer, J. S. & Hartog, J. & Jonker, N. & Van Praag, C. M., 2002. "Low risk aversion encourages the choice for entrepreneurship: an empirical test of a truism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 29-36, May.
  4. Geroski, Paul A, 2000. "Exploring the Niche Overlaps Between Organizational Ecology and Industrial Economics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Simon C. Parker & Yacine Belghitar, 2006. "What Happens to Nascent Entrepreneurs? An Econometric Analysis of the PSED," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 81-101, August.
  6. Blanchflower, David G & Meyer, Bruce D, 1994. "A Longitudinal Analysis of the Young Self-Employed in Australia and the United States," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, February.
  7. Taylor, Mark P, 1999. "Survival of the Fittest? An Analysis of Self-Employment Duration in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C140-55, March.
  8. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1979. "A General Equilibrium Entrepreneurial Theory of Firm Formation Based on Risk Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 719-48, August.
  9. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro & Guimaraes, Paulo, 1995. "The survival of new plants: Start-up conditions and post-entry evolution," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-481, December.
  10. Roy Thurik & Andreas Freytag, 2006. "Entrepreneurship and its determinants in a cross-country setting," Scales Research Reports H200616, EIM Business and Policy Research.
  11. van Stel, A.J. & Suddle, K., 2005. "The Impact of New Firm Formation on Regional Development in the Netherlands," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-075-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  12. Stuart, Toby & Sorenson, Olav, 2003. "The geography of opportunity: spatial heterogeneity in founding rates and the performance of biotechnology firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 229-253, February.
  13. Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 2006. "Entrepreneurship and the Process of Firms’ Entry, Survival and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 2475, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Topi, Jukka, 1996. "Microeconomic and macroeconomic influences of entry and exit of firms," Research Discussion Papers 6/1996, Bank of Finland.
  15. Small, Kenneth A & Hsiao, Cheng, 1985. "Multinomial Logit Specification Tests," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 619-27, October.
  16. Stam, F.C. & Audretsch, D.B. & Meijaard, J., 2006. "Renascent Entrepreneurship," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-017-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  17. Marco van Gelderen & Niels Bosma & Roy Thurik, 2003. "Success and risk factors in the pre-startup phase," Scales Research Reports N200314, EIM Business and Policy Research.
  18. Dorothea Schäfer & Oleksandr Talavera, 2009. "Small business survival and inheritance: evidence from Germany," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 95-109, January.
  19. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, September.
  20. Forbes, Daniel P., 2005. "Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 623-640, September.
  21. Holmes, Thomas J & Schmitz, James A, Jr, 1990. "A Theory of Entrepreneurship and Its Application to the Study of Business Transfers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 265-94, April.
  22. Caliendo, Marco & Fossen, Frank M. & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2006. "Risk Attitudes of Nascent Entrepreneurs: New Evidence from an Experimentally-Validated Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 2168, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  23. Isabel Grilo & Jesus-Maria Irigoyen, 2006. "Entrepreneurship in the EU: To Wish and not to be," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 305-318, 05.
  24. Andrew Burke & Felix FitzRoy & Michael Nolan, 2008. "What makes a die-hard entrepreneur? Beyond the ‘employee or entrepreneur’ dichotomy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 93-115, August.
  25. Henrekson, Magnus, 2002. "Entrepreneurship: A Weak Link in the Welfare State," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 518, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Mar 2005.
  26. Cefis, E. & Marsili, O., 2004. "A Matter of Life and Death: Innovation and Firm Survival," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-109-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  27. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Lionel Nesta & Michel Quéré, 2008. "Market Selection Along the Firm Life Cycle," Post-Print halshs-00721063, HAL.
  28. Roy Thurik & Isabel Grilo & Peter van der Zwan, 2006. "The entrepreneurial ladder and its determinants," Scales Research Reports H200620, EIM Business and Policy Research.
  29. Levesque, Moren & Minniti, Maria, 2006. "The effect of aging on entrepreneurial behavior," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 177-194, March.
  30. Ciavarella, Mark A. & Buchholtz, Ann K. & Riordan, Christine M. & Gatewood, Robert D. & Stokes, Garnett S., 2004. "The Big Five and venture survival: Is there a linkage?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 465-483, July.
  31. Bianchi, Milo & Henrekson, Magnus, 2005. "Is Neoclassical Economics still Entrepreneurless?," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 584, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 02 Feb 2005.
  32. Simon Cheng & J. Scott Long, 2007. "Testing for IIA in the Multinomial Logit Model," Sociological Methods & Research, SAGE Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 583-600, May.
  33. Cooper, Arnold C., 1993. "Challenges in predicting new firm performance," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 241-253, May.
  34. Baldwin, John R. & Raffiquzzaman, Mohammed, 1995. "Selection Versus Evolutionary Adaptation: Learning and Post-entry Performance," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 1994072e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  35. van Praag, C M & Cramer, J S, 2001. "The Roots of Entrepreneurship and Labour Demand: Individual Ability and Low Risk Aversion," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(269), pages 45-62, February.
  36. Evans, David S & Leighton, Linda S, 1989. "Some Empirical Aspects of Entrepreneurship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 519-35, June.
  37. Roy Thurik & Isabel Grilo, 2005. "Latent and actual entrepreneurship in Europe and the US: some recent developments," Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 2005-24, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Group.
  38. Bernard F. Lentz & David N. Laband, 1990. "Entrepreneurial Success and Occupational Inheritance among Proprietors," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 563-79, August.
  39. Ekelund, Jesper & Johansson, Edvard & Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta & Lichtermann, Dirk, 2005. "Self-employment and risk aversion--evidence from psychological test data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 649-659, October.
  40. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1978. "A Conditional Probit Model for Qualitative Choice: Discrete Decisions Recognizing Interdependence and Heterogeneous Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 403-26, March.
  41. J. Scott Long & Jeremy Freese, 2006. "Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables using Stata, 2nd Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 2, number long2, September.
  42. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-40, September.
  43. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew & Stutzer, Alois, 2001. "Latent entrepreneurship across nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 680-691, May.
  44. C. Mirjam van Praag, 2003. "Business Survival and Success of Young Small Business Owners," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-050/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  45. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-45, September.
  46. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December.
  47. Amit, Raphael & Muller, Eitan & Cockburn, Iain, 1995. "Opportunity costs and entrepreneurial activity," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 95-106, March.
  48. Sidney G. Winter, 1971. "Satisficing, Selection, and the Innovating Remnant," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(2), pages 237-261.
  49. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
  50. Esping-Andersen, Gosta, 1999. "Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198742005, December.
  51. Jean-Pierre Huiban, 2011. "The spatial demography of new plants: urban creation and rural survival," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 73-86, July.
  52. Bruce, Donald, 2002. "Taxes and Entrepreneurial Endurance: Evidence from the Self-Employed," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 55(N. 1), pages 5-24, March.
  53. Ari Hyytinen & Pekka Ilmakunnas, 2007. "What distinguishes a serial entrepreneur?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 793-821, October.
  54. Marcus Box, 2008. "The death of firms: exploring the effects of environment and birth cohort on firm survival in Sweden," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 379-393, December.
  55. Audretsch, David B, 1998. "Agglomeration and the Location of Innovative Activity," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 18-29, Summer.
  56. Bates, Timothy, 1990. "Entrepreneur Human Capital Inputs and Small Business Longevity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 551-59, November.
  57. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Joulfaian, David & Rosen, Harvey S, 1994. "Sticking It Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 53-75, February.
  58. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
  59. Westhead, Paul & Wright, Mike, 1998. "Novice, portfolio, and serial founders: are they different?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 173-204, May.
  60. Paul Reynolds & Niels Bosma & Erkko Autio & Steve Hunt & Natalie De Bono & Isabel Servais & Paloma Lopez-Garcia & Nancy Chin, 2005. "Global Entrepreneurship Monitor: Data Collection Design and Implementation 1998–2003," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 205-231, 02.
  61. Minniti, Maria, 2005. "Entrepreneurship and network externalities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-27, May.
  62. Cramer, J. S. & Ridder, G., 1991. "Pooling states in the multinomial logit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 267-272, February.
  63. Michael Fritsch & Pamela Mueller, 2004. "Effects of New Business Formation on Regional Development over Time," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 961-975.
  64. William P. Barnett & Aimee-Noelle Swanson & Olav Sorenson, 2003. "Asymmetric selection among organizations," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 673-695, August.
  65. Scott Shane & Rakesh Khurana, 2003. "Bringing individuals back in: the effects of career experience on new firm founding," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 519-543, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eim:papers:h200720. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster EIM)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.