IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v46y2015icp225-237.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The business cycle implications of land financing in China

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Shen
  • Liu, Lezheng
  • Zhao, Yan

Abstract

In the past decade, the Chinese government was increasingly relying on revenues from land sales to finance the public spending. This paper examines the impacts of land financing on business cycle fluctuations in China in an estimated DSGE model. The simulation results indicate that the overall effect of land financing is to increase the business cycle fluctuations by 12.6%. However, the impacts of land financing on business cycle fluctuations depend on shocks hitting the economy. The policy implication of this paper is that cutting the direct linkage between the government expenditure and the land sales could mitigate the business cycle fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Shen & Liu, Lezheng & Zhao, Yan, 2015. "The business cycle implications of land financing in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 225-237.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:225-237
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.12.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999314005057
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.12.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang & Mr. Steven A Barnett, 2014. "Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China," IMF Working Papers 2014/004, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Peterson, George E. & Kaganova, Olga, 2010. "Integrating land financing into subnational fiscal management," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5409, The World Bank.
    3. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
    4. Xin Wang & Yi Wen, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of government spending in China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 416-446, August.
    5. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2013. "Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    6. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Yingyi Qian, 2006. "The Return to Capital in China," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 61-102.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    8. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    9. Zhang, Wenlang, 2009. "China's monetary policy: Quantity versus price rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 473-484, September.
    10. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    12. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    13. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    14. Chadwick C. Curtis & Nelson Mark, 2010. "Business Cycles, Consumption and Risk-Sharing: How Different Is China?," NBER Working Papers 16154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.
    16. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Ren & Hou, Jie, 2021. "Land finance, land attracting investment and housing price fluctuations in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 690-699.
    2. Wang, Ren & Hou, Jie & He, Xiaobei, 2017. "Real estate price and heterogeneous investment behavior in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-280.
    3. Jing Qian & Yunfei Peng & Cheng Luo & Chao Wu & Qingyun Du, 2015. "Urban Land Expansion and Sustainable Land Use Policy in Shenzhen: A Case Study of China’s Rapid Urbanization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Guo, Shen & Jiang, Zheng & Shi, Huimin, 2018. "The business cycle implications of bank discrimination in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 264-278.
    5. Jiao Huang & Ze Liang & Shuyao Wu & Shuangcheng Li, 2019. "Grain Self-Sufficiency Capacity in China’s Metropolitan Areas under Rapid Urbanization: Trends and Regional Differences from 1990 to 2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-23, April.
    6. Fan, Ying, 2022. "Demand shocks and price stickiness in housing market dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Gyourko, Joseph & Shen, Yang & Wu, Jing & Zhang, Rongjie, 2022. "Land finance in China: Analysis and review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Wang, Weifang & van Noorloos, Femke & Spit, Tejo, 2020. "Stakeholder power relations in Land Value Capture: comparing public (China) and private (U.S.) dominant regimes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Yiping Xiao & Yan Song & Xiaodong Wu, 2018. "How Far Has China’s Urbanization Gone?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, August.
    10. Ping Zhang & Xiaojuan Yang & Hua Chen & Sidong Zhao, 2023. "Matching Relationship between Urban Service Industry Land Expansion and Economy Growth in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-29, May.
    11. Xuewen Li & Weiwen Zhang & Yi Peng, 2016. "Grain Output and Cultivated Land Preservation: Assessment of the Rewarded Land Conversion Quotas Trading Policy in China’s Zhejiang Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-15, August.
    12. Xinhua Zhu & Yigang Wei & Yani Lai & Yan Li & Sujuan Zhong & Chun Dai, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of the Driving Factors of China’s ‘Land Finance’ Mechanism Using Soft Budget Constraint Theory and the PLS-SEM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Yubo Wang & Xizhu Yang, 2022. "Fiscal Ecological Cost of Land in China: Estimation and Regional Differences," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-25, August.
    14. Ma, Yong & Lv, Lin, 2022. "Money, debt, and the effects of fiscal stimulus," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 152-178.
    15. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Chang, Long, 2021. "Monetary–fiscal policy regime and macroeconomic dynamics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 121-135.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Shen & Jiang, Zheng & Shi, Huimin, 2018. "The business cycle implications of bank discrimination in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 264-278.
    2. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin‐Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    3. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2013. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 367-386.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    6. Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Who benefits from using property taxes to finance a labor tax wedge reduction?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2015. "Housing market dynamics in China: Findings from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 26-40.
    8. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.
    9. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    10. Ma, Yong & Li, Shushu, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of China's monetary policy transparency: A New Keynesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 236-248.
    11. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    12. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    13. Yunqing Wang & Qigui Zhu, 2015. "Energy price shocks, monetary policy and China's economic fluctuations," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 29(1), pages 126-141, May.
    14. Marc P. Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2005. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 431, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    16. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1415-1450, September.
    17. Inoue, Atsushi & Kuo, Chun-Hung & Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Identifying the sources of model misspecification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 1-18.
    18. Philip Arestis & Georgios Chortareas & John D. Tsoukalas, 2010. "Money and Information in a New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(542), pages 101-128, February.
    19. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Sticky Prices versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-Offs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 60-90, January.
    20. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Current account dynamics and the housing cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 22-43.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:225-237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.