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Land finance, land attracting investment and housing price fluctuations in China

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  • Wang, Ren
  • Hou, Jie

Abstract

We study the relationship between government imposed land price discrimination and housing price fluctuation in China. Providing the first DSGE model considering such discrimination, we show that land finance, monetary easing policy, labor preference and housing demand shocks accounts for 39.01%, 24.89%, 14.45% and 9.26% of housing price variation from 2008Q1 to 2017Q4, respectively. Counterfactual simulation proves that the current land price policy in China stimulates the growth of manufacturing sector at the expense of inflated housing cost and reduced multiplier of government spending. We also find that easing monetary policy with land price discrimination contributes to elevated housing price inflation and lowered consumption good price inflation.

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  • Wang, Ren & Hou, Jie, 2021. "Land finance, land attracting investment and housing price fluctuations in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 690-699.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:72:y:2021:i:c:p:690-699
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.12.021
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    3. Tan, Zhengxun & Tang, Qianqian & Meng, Juan, 2022. "The effect of monetary policy on China’s housing prices before and after 2017: A dynamic analysis in DSGE model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Yuzheng Zhang & Shirui He, 2023. "Local Government’s Land Finance Dependence and Migrants’ Settlement Intentions: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-16, July.
    5. Zengming Wu & Mengnan Zhu, 2022. "More air pollution control, less industrial land leasing? Empirical evidence from microland transactions," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 647-658, April.
    6. Xiaoying Ju & Huizhao Li & Peng Yao & Jianxu Liu & Fei Chen & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2022. "Analysis of the Impact of Industrial Land Price Distortion on Overcapacity in the Textile Industry and Its Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    7. Yujiao Chen & Zhengbo Luo, 2022. "Hedonic Pricing of Houses in Megacities Pre- and Post-COVID-19: A Case Study of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, September.
    8. Siyu Han & Mengcheng Wang & Qi Liu & Renyang Wang & Guoliang Ou & Lu Zhang, 2022. "The Influence of Land Disposition Derived from Land Finance on Urban Innovation in China: Mechanism Discussion and Empirical Evidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Weiwei Li & Lisheng Weng & Kaixu Zhao & Sidong Zhao & Ping Zhang, 2021. "Research on the Evaluation of Real Estate Inventory Management in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-29, November.
    10. Jian Wang & Shangui Peng & Siqi Yan & Guancheng Guo & Qun Wu, 2023. "Impact of Chinese Local Government‐led Construction Land Supply Strategies on Urban Innovation and its Spatiotemporal Differences," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 161-189, September.
    11. Tinghui Li & Jiehua Ma & Bin Mo, 2021. "Does the Land Market Have an Impact on Green Total Factor Productivity? A Case Study on China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-19, June.
    12. Gyourko, Joseph & Shen, Yang & Wu, Jing & Zhang, Rongjie, 2022. "Land finance in China: Analysis and review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Ma, Yong & Lv, Lin, 2022. "Money, debt, and the effects of fiscal stimulus," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 152-178.
    14. Xiaodong Yang & Weilong Wang & Xufeng Su & Siyu Ren & Qiying Ran & Jianlong Wang & Jianhong Cao, 2023. "Analysis of the influence of land finance on haze pollution: An empirical study based on 269 prefecture‐level cities in China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 101-134, March.
    15. Lida Han & Xi Wu & Peng Tang, 2023. "Does Environmental Decentralization Affect the Supply of Urban Construction Land? Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land finance; Land attracting investment; Housing price fluctuations; Fiscal multiplier; DSGE; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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