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Climate shocks and fertility intentions: Evidence from extreme temperature events

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  • Zhang, Xin
  • Zhang, Jie
  • Chen, Fanglin

Abstract

This study investigates how temperature anomalies reshape fertility intentions, addressing persistent gaps in linking climate dynamics to demographic change amid population aging. Using micro-level survey data and meteorological records from China, we examine the impact by employing high-dimensional fixed effects model. Our analysis reveals a 1 °C increase in temperature anomalies, fertility intentions decrease by 0.3082 units, equivalent to 14.8 % of the average fertility intention. Interestingly, air conditioner users, young people, highly educated individuals, and farmers are particularly sensitive to changes in temperature. Potential mechanisms include changes in energy consumption, cognitive evaluation, and physical health. Our findings reveal a climate-driven demographic response that may reshape population structures in the long term. Policymakers must recognize that addressing low fertility rates requires more than financial subsidies. In the face of global warming, humanity may need to “cool down” and rethink its future.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Xin & Zhang, Jie & Chen, Fanglin, 2025. "Climate shocks and fertility intentions: Evidence from extreme temperature events," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325002184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107223
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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