IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/bjposi/v49y2019i02p557-577_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of District Magnitude on Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments in Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Lucardi, Adrián

Abstract

How does district magnitude affect electoral outcomes? This article addresses this question by exploiting a combination of two natural experiments in Argentina between 1985 and 2015. Argentine provinces elect half of their congressional delegation every two years, and thus districts with an odd number of representatives have varying magnitudes in different election years. Furthermore, whether a province elects more representatives in midterm or concurrent years was decided by lottery in 1983. I find that district magnitude (a) increases electoral support for small parties, (b) increases the (effective) number of parties that gain seats and (c) reduces electoral disproportionality. The last two results are driven by the mechanical rather than the psychological effect of electoral rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucardi, Adrián, 2019. "The Effect of District Magnitude on Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments in Argentina," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 557-577, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:49:y:2019:i:02:p:557-577_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0007123416000740/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fiva, Jon H. & Folke, Olle, 2016. "Mechanical and Psychological Effects of Electoral Reform," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 265-279, April.
    2. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    3. Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The wealth of subnations: Geography, institutions, and within-country development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 88-111.
    4. Federico Ferrara & Erik S. Herron, 2005. "Going It Alone? Strategic Entry under Mixed Electoral Rules," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 16-31, January.
    5. Fukumoto, Kentaro & Horiuchi, Yusaku, 2011. "Making Outsiders' Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 586-603, August.
    6. Sanz, Carlos, 2017. "The Effect of Electoral Systems on Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(4), pages 689-710, October.
    7. Sebastian Galiani & Iván Torre & Gustavo Torrens, 2016. "Fiscal Federalism and Legislative Malapportionment: Causal Evidence from Independent but Related Natural Experiments," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 133-159, March.
    8. Ernesto Dal Bó & Martín A. Rossi, 2011. "Term Length and the Effort of Politicians," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(4), pages 1237-1263.
    9. Orit Kedar & Liran Harsgor & Raz A. Sheinerman, 2016. "Are Voters Equal under Proportional Representation?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(3), pages 676-691, July.
    10. Kenneth A. Shepsle & Robert P. Van Houweling & Samuel J. Abrams & Peter C. Hanson, 2009. "The Senate Electoral Cycle and Bicameral Appropriations Politics," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 343-359, April.
    11. Riker, William H., 1982. "The Two-party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 753-766, December.
    12. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    13. Gerring, John & Palmer, Maxwell & Teorell, Jan & Zarecki, Dominic, 2015. "Demography and Democracy: A Global, District-level Analysis of Electoral Contestation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 574-591, August.
    14. Massimo Bordignon & Tommaso Nannicini & Guido Tabellini, 2016. "Moderating Political Extremism: Single Round versus Runoff Elections under Plurality Rule," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2349-2370, August.
    15. Matt Golder, 2006. "Presidential Coattails and Legislative Fragmentation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(1), pages 34-48, January.
    16. Singer, Matthew M., 2013. "Was Duverger Correct? Single-Member District Election Outcomes in Fifty-three Countries," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 201-220, January.
    17. Lijphart, Arend, 1990. "The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws, 1945–85," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 481-496, June.
    18. Duverger, Maurice, 1952. "Public Opinion and Political Parties in France," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(4), pages 1069-1078, December.
    19. Fujiwara, Thomas, 2011. "A Regression Discontinuity Test of Strategic Voting and Duverger's Law," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 6(3–4), pages 197-233, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Galindo-Silva, Hector, 2021. "Political openness and armed conflict: Evidence from local councils in Colombia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laurent Bouton & Jorge Gallego & Aniol Llorente-Saguer & Rebecca Morton, 2022. "Run-off Elections in the Laboratory," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 106-146.
    2. Matakos, Konstantinos & Savolainen, Riikka & Troumpounis, Orestis & Tukiainen, Janne & Xefteris, Dimitrios, 2018. "Electoral Institutions and Intraparty Cohesion," Working Papers 109, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana, 2013. "Electoral thresholds and political outcomes: Quasi-experimental evidence from a reform in Germany," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 177, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Hangartner, Dominik & Ruiz, Nelson A. & Tukiainen, Janne, 2019. "Open or Closed? How List Type Affects Electoral Performance, Candidate Selection, and Campaign Effort," Working Papers 120, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Torres, Javier & Díaz, Guillermo, 2019. "Effects of runoff voting rules on number of parties and candidates' political experience: Evidence from a law change in Peru," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 97-107.
    6. Buisseret, Peter, 2017. "Electoral competition with entry under non-majoritarian run-off rules," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 494-506.
    7. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Hoje Jo & Jimi Kim & Moo Sung Kim, 2018. "Business Groups and Corporate Social Responsibility," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 153(4), pages 931-954, December.
    8. Friedrich, Sarah & Pauly, Markus, 2018. "MATS: Inference for potentially singular and heteroscedastic MANOVA," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 166-179.
    9. Hollingsworth, Bruce & Ohinata, Asako & Picchio, Matteo & Walker, Ian, 2017. "Labour supply and informal care supply: The impacts of financial support for long-term elderly care," GLO Discussion Paper Series 118, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Silva,Joana C. G. & Morgandi,Matteo & Levin,Victoria, 2016. "Trust in government and support for redistribution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7675, The World Bank.
    11. Andrés Elberg & Pedro M. Gardete & Rosario Macera & Carlos Noton, 2019. "Dynamic effects of price promotions: field evidence, consumer search, and supply-side implications," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-58, March.
    12. James G. MacKinnon & Matthew D. Webb & Morten Ø. Nielsen, 2017. "Bootstrap And Asymptotic Inference With Multiway Clustering," Working Paper 1386, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    13. Asako Ohinata & Matteo Picchio, 2020. "Financial support for long-term elderly care and household saving behaviour," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 247-268.
    14. Hagemann, Andreas, 2019. "Placebo inference on treatment effects when the number of clusters is small," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 190-209.
    15. James G. MacKinnon & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Matthew D. Webb, 2023. "Fast and reliable jackknife and bootstrap methods for cluster‐robust inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 671-694, August.
    16. Costel Andonie & Daniel Diermeier, 2022. "Electoral Institutions with impressionable voters," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 59(3), pages 683-733, October.
    17. Britto, Diogo G.C. & Fiorin, Stefano, 2020. "Corruption and legislature size: Evidence from Brazil," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Adam M. Lavecchia & Philip Oreopoulos & Robert S. Brown, 2020. "Long-Run Effects from Comprehensive Student Support: Evidence from Pathways to Education," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 209-224, June.
    19. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    20. Isabella Giorgetti & Matteo Picchio, 2021. "One billion euro programme for early childcare services in Italy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 460-492, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:49:y:2019:i:02:p:557-577_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/jps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.