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The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

  • Thurlow James

    (UNU-WIDER and International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Tarp Finn

    (UNU-WIDER and University of Copenhagen)

  • McCoy Simon

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Hai Nguyen Manh

    (Central Institute of Economic Management)

  • Breisinger Clemens

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Arndt Channing

    (University of Copenhagen)

Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Globalization and Development.

Volume (Year): 2 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 1-31

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:globdv:v:2:y:2011:i:1:n:6
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  1. Channing Arndt & Rui Benfica & Nelson Maximiano & Antonio M. D. Nucifora & James T. Thurlow, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 497-511, November.
  2. Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
  3. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Maximiano, Nelson & Nucifora, Antonio M.D. & Thurlow, James, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: Economic impacts and responses for Mozambique," IFPRI discussion papers 836, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Glewwe, Paul & Gragnolati, Michele & Zaman, Hassan, 2002. "Who Gained from Vietnam's Boom in the 1990s?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 773-92, July.
  5. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
  6. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2009. "Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 341-353, February.
  7. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
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