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The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Thurlow James

    (UNU-WIDER and International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Tarp Finn

    (UNU-WIDER and University of Copenhagen)

  • McCoy Simon

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Hai Nguyen Manh

    (Central Institute of Economic Management)

  • Breisinger Clemens

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Arndt Channing

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.

Suggested Citation

  • Thurlow James & Tarp Finn & McCoy Simon & Hai Nguyen Manh & Breisinger Clemens & Arndt Channing, 2011. "The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:globdv:v:2:y:2011:i:1:n:6
    DOI: 10.2202/1948-1837.1058
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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2012. "Republic of Yemen - Joint Social and Economic Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 12284, The World Bank Group.
    2. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Engelke, Wilfried & Al-Bataly, Abdulmajeed, 2012. "Managing transition in Yemen: An assessment of the costs of conflict and development scenarios for the future," IFPRI discussion papers 1210, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2013. "Essays on Farm Household Decision-Making: Evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints 96azx, Center for Open Science.
    4. World Bank & United Nations & European Union & Islamic Development Bank, 2012. "Joint Social and Economic Assessment for the Republic of Yemen," World Bank Publications - Reports 11920, The World Bank Group.
    5. Rodriguez-Takeuchi, Laura & Imai, Katsushi S., 2013. "Food price surges and poverty in urban Colombia: New evidence from household survey data," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 227-236.
    6. Andy McKay & Finn Tarp, 2014. "Distributional Impacts of the 2008 Global Food Price Spike in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. McKay, Andy & Tarp, Finn, 2014. "Distributional impacts of the 2008 global food price spike in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Finn Tarp, 2018. "Vietnam: The dragon that rose from the ashes," WIDER Working Paper Series 126, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Bryan, Elizabeth & De Pinto, Alessandro & Ringler, Claudia & Asuming-Brempong, Samuel & Bendaoud, Luís Artur & Givá, Nicia & Anh, Dao The & Mai, Nguyen Ngoc & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Sarpong, Daniel, 2012. "Institutions for agricultural mitigation: Potential and challenges in four countries," CAPRi working papers 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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