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The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Thurlow James

    (UNU-WIDER and International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Tarp Finn

    (UNU-WIDER and University of Copenhagen)

  • McCoy Simon

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Hai Nguyen Manh

    (Central Institute of Economic Management)

  • Breisinger Clemens

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Arndt Channing

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.

Suggested Citation

  • Thurlow James & Tarp Finn & McCoy Simon & Hai Nguyen Manh & Breisinger Clemens & Arndt Channing, 2011. "The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:globdv:v:2:y:2011:i:1:n:6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    2. Channing Arndt & Rui Benfica & Nelson Maximiano & Antonio M. D. Nucifora & James T. Thurlow, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 497-511, November.
    3. Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
    4. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    5. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Maximiano, Nelson & Nucifora, Antonio M.D. & Thurlow, James, 2008. "Higher fuel and food prices: Economic impacts and responses for Mozambique," IFPRI discussion papers 836, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Glewwe, Paul & Gragnolati, Michele & Zaman, Hassan, 2002. "Who Gained from Vietnam's Boom in the 1990s?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 773-792, July.
    7. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2009. "Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 341-353, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2012. "Republic of Yemen - Joint Social and Economic Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12284, The World Bank.
    2. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Engelke, Wilfried & Al-Bataly, Abdulmajeed, 2012. "Managing transition in Yemen: An assessment of the costs of conflict and development scenarios for the future," IFPRI discussion papers 1210, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. World Bank & United Nations & European Union & Islamic Development Bank, 2012. "Joint Social and Economic Assessment for the Republic of Yemen," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11920, The World Bank.
    4. Rodriguez-Takeuchi, Laura & Imai, Katsushi S., 2013. "Food price surges and poverty in urban Colombia: New evidence from household survey data," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 227-236.
    5. McKay, Andy & Tarp, Finn, 2014. "Distributional impacts of the 2008 global food price spike in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Finn Tarp, 2018. "Viet Nam: The dragon that rose from the ashes," WIDER Working Paper Series 126, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Bryan, Elizabeth & De Pinto, Alessandro & Ringler, Claudia & Asuming-Brempong, Samuel & Bendaoud, Luís Artur & Givá, Nicia & Anh, Dao The & Mai, Nguyen Ngoc & Asenso-Okyere, Kwadwo & Sarpong, Daniel, 2012. "Institutions for agricultural mitigation: Potential and challenges in four countries," CAPRi working papers 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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