IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/stratm/v40y2019i12p1938-1964.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The case for humble expectations: CEO humility and market performance

Author

Listed:
  • Oleg V. Petrenko
  • Federico Aime
  • Tessa Recendes
  • Jeffrey A. Chandler

Abstract

Research Summary In this study, we investigate the effect of chief executive officer (CEO) humility on firm's market performance. We argue and find that firms with more humble CEOs will have better market performance but not because they actually perform better but, rather, because they benefit from an expectation discount in the market. Specifically, we show that, all else equal, financial analysts announce lower earnings per share expectations for firms with more humble CEOs. This expectation discount sets the stage for those firms to meet or beat analysts' expectations resulting in improved market performance for firms with humble CEOs. We find support for our ideas with a sample of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 CEOs, operationalizing CEO humility with a videometric technique. Managerial Summary In this study, we investigate the effect of CEO humility on firm's market performance. We show that firms with more humble CEOs will outperform other firms in the market because financial analysts tend to set lower market expectations for firms with more humble CEOs increasing the probability that they will outperform those expectations. Rather counterintuitively, these firms do not have better market performance because they perform better but because they face lower expectations. Ultimately, the study demonstrates the importance of CEO characteristics for external evaluations and perceptions about the firm with significant effects on investment performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Oleg V. Petrenko & Federico Aime & Tessa Recendes & Jeffrey A. Chandler, 2019. "The case for humble expectations: CEO humility and market performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 1938-1964, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:40:y:2019:i:12:p:1938-1964
    DOI: 10.1002/smj.3071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3071
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/smj.3071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Skinner, Dj, 1994. "Why Firms Voluntarily Disclose Bad-News," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 38-60.
    2. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    3. Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
    4. Bartov, Eli, 1991. "Open-market stock repurchases as signals for earnings and risk changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 275-294, September.
    5. Peng, Lin, 2005. "Learning with Information Capacity Constraints," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 307-329, June.
    6. Allaudeen Hameed & Randall Morck & Jianfeng Shen & Bernard Yeung, 2015. "Information, Analysts, and Stock Return Comovement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3153-3187.
    7. David Deephouse & Pursey Heugens, 2009. "Linking Social Issues to Organizational Impact: The Role of Infomediaries and the Infomediary Process," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 86(4), pages 541-553, June.
    8. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    9. Butler, Kc & Lang, Lhp, 1991. "The Forecast Accuracy Of Individual Analysts - Evidence Of Systematic Optimism And Pessimism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 150-156.
    10. Oleg V. Petrenko & Federico Aime & Jason Ridge & Aaron Hill, 2016. "Corporate social responsibility or CEO narcissism? CSR motivations and organizational performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 262-279, February.
    11. Foong Soon Cheong & Jacob Thomas, 2011. "Why Do EPS Forecast Error and Dispersion Not Vary with Scale? Implications for Analyst and Managerial Behavior," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(2), pages 359-401, May.
    12. Lawrence D. Brown, 2001. "A Temporal Analysis of Earnings Surprises: Profits versus Losses," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 221-241, September.
    13. Timothy J. Quigley & Donald C. Hambrick, 2012. "When the former ceo stays on as board chair: effects on successor discretion, strategic change, and performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 834-859, July.
    14. M. K. Chin & Matthew Semadeni, 2017. "CEO political ideologies and pay egalitarianism within top management teams," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(8), pages 1608-1625, August.
    15. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Ron Kasznik & Maureen F. McNichols, 2002. "Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 727-759, June.
    18. Yi Tang & Daniel Z. Mack & Guoli Chen, 2018. "The differential effects of CEO narcissism and hubris on corporate social responsibility," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 1370-1387, May.
    19. Bradley P. Owens & Michael D. Johnson & Terence R. Mitchell, 2013. "Expressed Humility in Organizations: Implications for Performance, Teams, and Leadership," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(5), pages 1517-1538, October.
    20. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1969. "Portfolio Theory And Accounting," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 300-323.
    21. Joshua J. Filzen & Kyle Peterson, 2015. "Financial Statement Complexity and Meeting Analysts’ Expectations," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 1560-1594, December.
    22. Kim, Yongtae & Lobo, Gerald J. & Song, Minsup, 2011. "Analyst characteristics, timing of forecast revisions, and analyst forecasting ability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2158-2168, August.
    23. Sucheta Nadkarni & Tianxu Chen & Jianhong Chen, 2016. "The clock is ticking! Executive temporal depth, industry velocity, and competitive aggressiveness," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 1132-1153, June.
    24. Theresa S. Cho & Donald C. Hambrick, 2006. "Attention as the Mediator Between Top Management Team Characteristics and Strategic Change: The Case of Airline Deregulation," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 453-469, August.
    25. Irene Karamanou & Nikos Vafeas, 2005. "The Association between Corporate Boards, Audit Committees, and Management Earnings Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 453-486, June.
    26. Hal S. Scott, 1998. "When the Euro Falls Apart," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 207-228, December.
    27. repec:bla:intfin:v:1:y:1998:i:2:p:207-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Jeffrey T. Doyle & Russell J. Lundholm & Mark T. Soliman, 2006. "The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following I/B/E/S Earnings Surprises," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 849-887, December.
    29. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    30. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    31. Pertti H. Lounamaa & James G. March, 1987. "Adaptive Coordination of a Learning Team," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 107-123, January.
    32. James G. March & Robert I. Sutton, 1997. "Crossroads---Organizational Performance as a Dependent Variable," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(6), pages 698-706, December.
    33. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    34. Minyoung Kim, 2016. "Geographic scope, isolating mechanisms, and value appropriation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 695-713, April.
    35. Angelo Fanelli & Vilmos F. Misangyi & Henry L. Tosi, 2009. "In Charisma We Trust: The Effects of CEO Charismatic Visions on Securities Analysts," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(6), pages 1011-1033, December.
    36. Zeki Simsek & John F. Veiga & Michael Lubatkin & Richard N. Dino, 2005. "Modeling the Multilevel Determinants of Top management Team Behavorial Integration," Post-Print hal-02311805, HAL.
    37. Aboody, David & Kasznik, Ron, 2000. "CEO stock option awards and the timing of corporate voluntary disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 73-100, February.
    38. Gary A. Ballinger & Jeremy J. Marcel, 2010. "The use of an interim CEO during succession episodes and firm performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 262-283, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. René Belderbos & Jinhyuck (Joseph) Park & Martin Carree, 2021. "Do R&D investments in weak IPR countries destroy market value? The role of internal linkages," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1431, August.
    2. Ryan Kirkland, Julia C. & Edwards, Bryan D. & Flaherty, Karen E., 2021. "The effect of honest and humble leadership on salesperson customer orientation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 49-58.
    3. Gada, Viswa Prasad & Popli, Manish & Malhotra, Shavin, 2024. "Geographic distance in cross-border acquisitions: The impact of CEO's psychological attributes," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(1).
    4. Qiuzhen Ren & Yingjie Xu & Ranran Zhou & Jingdong Liu, 2020. "Can CEO’s Humble Leadership Behavior Really Improve Enterprise Performance and Sustainability? A Case Study of Chinese Start-Up Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-25, April.
    5. Sebastian Cortes-Mejia & Andres Felipe Cortes & Pol Herrmann, 2022. "Sharing Strategic Decisions: CEO Humility, TMT Decentralization, and Ethical Culture," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 241-260, June.
    6. Hrazdil, Karel & Li, Xin & Suwanyangyuan, Nattavut, 2022. "CEO happiness and forecasting," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Johannes Brunzel & Daniel Ebsen, 2023. "The role of humility in Chief Executive Officers: a review," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1487-1532, May.
    8. Tessa Recendes & Federico Aime & Aaron D. Hill & Oleg V. Petrenko, 2022. "Bargaining your way to success: The effect of Machiavellian chief executive officers on firm costs," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2012-2041, October.
    9. Han, Yu & Chi, Wei & Zhou, Jinyi, 2022. "Prosocial imprint: CEO childhood famine experience and corporate philanthropic donation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1604-1618.
    10. Chandler, Jeffrey A. & Short, Jeremy C. & Hasan, Md Kamrul & Fan, Gang, 2022. "Founding team characteristics and the pursuit of social motives: A role theory perspective," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    11. Chandler, Jeffrey A. & Fan, Gang & Tyge Payne, G., 2022. "Working the crowd: Leveraging podcasts to enhance crowdfunding success," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 79-88.
    12. Sun Hyun Park & Sung Hun (Brian) Chung & Nandini Rajagopalan, 2021. "Be careful what you wish for: CEO and analyst firm performance attributions and CEO dismissal," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(10), pages 1880-1908, October.
    13. Jeffrey A. Chandler & Tsutomu Doiguchi & Oleg V. Petrenko, 2022. "Revisiting the Effect of Internationalization on Firm Governance: A Replication and Extension Study," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 351-391, June.
    14. Johannes Brunzel, 2023. "Linguistic cues of chief executive officer personality and its effect on performance," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 215-243, January.
    15. Lee, Yong Suk & Kim, Taekyun & Choi, Sukwoong & Kim, Wonjoon, 2022. "When does AI pay off? AI-adoption intensity, complementary investments, and R&D strategy," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    16. Aaron D. Hill & Tessa Recendes & Yuting Yang, 2023. "Precarious situations: A prelude to hiring more hubristic chief executive officers," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 812-828, March.
    17. Bao, Xin & Sun, Baiqing & Han, Meini & Lin, Han & Lau, Raymond Y.K., 2023. "Quantifying the impact of CEO social media celebrity status on firm value: Novel measures from digital gatekeeping theory," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    18. Waddingham, Jacob A. & Hamrick, Alexander B. & Zachary, Miles A., 2023. "Addressing the entrepreneur in the room: Entrepreneurial exit and impression management tactics in the employment interview context," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    2. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    3. Emmanuel Mamatzakis & Anna Bagntasarian, 2021. "The nexus between CEO incentives and analysts' earnings forecasts," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6205-6248, October.
    4. Kai Wai Hui & P. Eric Yeung, 2013. "Underreaction to Industry‐Wide Earnings and the Post‐Forecast Revision Drift," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 701-737, September.
    5. Kumar, Alok & Rantala, Ville & Xu, Rosy, 2022. "Social learning and analyst behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 434-461.
    6. Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, June.
    7. Horton, Joanne & Serafeim, George & Wu, Shan, 2017. "Career concerns of banking analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 231-252.
    8. Hall, Jason L. & Tacon, Paul B., 2010. "Forecast accuracy and stock recommendations," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 18-33.
    9. Verhoeks, Ralph C. & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2024. "Wall street watches Washington: Asset pricing implications of policy uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    10. Johannes Brunzel, 2023. "Linguistic cues of chief executive officer personality and its effect on performance," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 215-243, January.
    11. Skarlicki, Daniel & Lo, Kin & Rogo, Rafael & Avolio, Bruce J. & DeHaas, CodieAnn, 2023. "The role of CEO accounts and perceived integrity in analysts’ forecasts," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    12. Rui Lu & Wenxuan Hou & Henry Oppenheimer & Ting Zhang, 2018. "The Integrity of Financial Analysts: Evidence from Asymmetric Responses to Earnings Surprises," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 761-783, September.
    13. Bin Ke & Yong Yu, 2006. "The Effect of Issuing Biased Earnings Forecasts on Analysts' Access to Management and Survival," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 965-999, December.
    14. Régis BRETON & Sébastien GALANTI & Christophe HURLIN & Anne-Gaël VAUBOURG, 2011. "Does the firm-analyst relationship matter in explaining analysts' earnings forecast errors?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 469, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Shanshan Pan & Michael Lacina & Haeyoung Shin, 2019. "Income Classification Shifting and Financial Analysts’ Forecasts," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-48, June.
    16. Wu, Yanran & Zhang, Chao, 2022. "Hard to arbitrage, hard for analysts to forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    18. Chen, Jing & Jung, Michael J. & Tang, Michael, 2023. "Does lowball guidance work? An analysis of firms that consistently beat their guidance by large margins," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(6).
    19. Kim, Yongtae & Lobo, Gerald J. & Song, Minsup, 2011. "Analyst characteristics, timing of forecast revisions, and analyst forecasting ability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2158-2168, August.
    20. Ayres, Douglas & Huang, Xuerong (Sharon) & Myring, Mark, 2017. "Fair value accounting and analyst forecast accuracy," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-70.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:40:y:2019:i:12:p:1938-1964. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/0143-2095 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.