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Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts

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  • YONCA ERTIMUR
  • JAYANTHI SUNDER
  • SHYAM V. SUNDER

Abstract

ABSTRACT We examine the contemporaneous relation between earnings forecast accuracy and recommendation profitability to assess the effectiveness with which analysts translate forecasts into profitable recommendations. We find that, after controlling for expertise, more accurate analysts make more profitable recommendations, albeit only for firms with value-relevant earnings. Next, we show that conflicts of interest from investment banking activities affect the relation between accuracy and profitability. In the case of buy recommendations, more accurate forecasts are associated with more profitable recommendations only for the nonconflicted analysts. For hold recommendations, higher levels of accuracy are associated with higher levels of profitability for conflicted analysts, provided these recommendations are treated as sells. Finally, we find that regulatory reforms aimed at mitigating analyst conflicts of interest appear to have improved the relation between accuracy and profitability. Specifically, the integrity of buy and hold recommendations has improved and the change is more pronounced for analysts expected to be most conflicted. Copyright University of Chicago on behalf of the Institute of Professional Accounting, 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:45:y:2007:i:3:p:567-606
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    Cited by:

    1. Hueiling Chen & Cheng-Tsu Huang & Hsiou-Wei W. Lin, 2016. "Changes in analyst following for less covered firms accompanying Regulation Fair Disclosure: the roles of ability and industry experience," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 519-541, April.
    2. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00934606 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Pascal Alphonse & Michel Levasseur & Xia Zhang, 2012. "Les Cours Boursiers Et Les Previsions De Rentabilite Des Analystes Sont-Ils En Phase?," Post-Print hal-00690947, HAL.
    4. repec:kap:jbuset:v:142:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10551-015-2752-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Xueming Luo & Heli Wang & Sascha Raithel & Qinqin Zheng, 2015. "Corporate social performance, analyst stock recommendations, and firm future returns," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 123-136, January.
    6. Krolikowski, Marcin W. & Chen, Gaole & Mohr, Joseph E., 2016. "Optimism pattern of all-star analysts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 222-228.
    7. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Singh, Vivek, 2015. "A comparison of buy-side and sell-side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-51.
    8. Baljit Sidhu & Hwee Cheng Tan, 2011. "The Performance of Equity Analysts During the Global Financial Crisis," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 21(1), pages 32-43, March.
    9. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    10. Jeremy Burke & Angela Hung & Jack Clift & Steven Garber & Joanne K. Yoong, 2015. "Impacts of Conflicts of Interest in the Financial Services Industry," Working Papers WR-1076, RAND Corporation.
    11. Hanousek, Jan & Kopřiva, František, 2013. "Do broker/analyst conflicts matter? Detecting evidence from internet trading platforms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 86-92.
    12. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    13. Chen, An-Sing & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Cheng, Lee-Young & Tu, Hsing-Yu, 2016. "Do analysts cater to investor beliefs via target prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 232-252.
    14. Lys, Thomas Z. & Sunder, Jayanthi, 2008. "Endogenous entry/exit as an alternative explanation for the disciplining role of independent analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 317-323, August.
    15. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Kovacs, Tunde & Sharma, Vivek, 2012. "The investment value of the frequency of analyst recommendation changes for the ordinary investor," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 94-108.
    16. Artur Aiguzhinov & Ana Paula Serra & Carlos Soares, 2016. "Are rankings of financial analysts useful to investors?," CEF.UP Working Papers 1604, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    17. Hugon, Artur & Muslu, Volkan, 2010. "Market demand for conservative analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 42-57, May.
    18. Hess, Dieter & Kreutzmann, Daniel & Pucker, Oliver, 2011. "Projected earnings accuracy and the profitability of stock recommendations," CFR Working Papers 10-17 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    19. Cici, Gjergji & Shane, Philip B. & Yang, Yanhua Sunny, 2017. "Do connections with buy-side analysts inform sell-side analyst research?," CFR Working Papers 17-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    20. Chen, Mark A. & Marquez, Robert, 2009. "Regulating securities analysts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 259-283, April.
    21. Balboa, Marina & Gomez-Sala, Juan Carlos & Lopez-Espinosa, German, 2008. "Does the value of recommendations depend on the level of optimism? A country-based analysis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 405-426, October.
    22. Hoechle, Daniel & Schaub, nic & Schmid, Markus, 2012. "Time Stamp Errors and the Stock Price Reaction to Analyst Recommendation and Forecast Revisions," Working Papers on Finance 1215, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Sep 2015.

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