IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reaccs/v16y2011i1d10.1007_s11142-009-9118-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysts’ accrual-related over-optimism: do analyst characteristics play a role?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael S. Drake

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Linda A. Myers

    (University of Arkansas)

Abstract

Bradshaw et al. (J Acc Res 39:45–74, 2001) find that analyst forecast over-optimism is greater for firms with high accruals. This “accrual-related over-optimism” is generally interpreted as evidence that analyst forecasts do not fully incorporate predictable earnings reversals associated with high accruals. We investigate whether analyst experience, access to resources (brokerage size), and portfolio complexity moderate the relation between over-optimistic forecasts and high accruals. We demonstrate the robustness of accrual-related over-optimism to controls for cash flow and prior forecast errors. We find that accrual-related over-optimism is lower for analysts with greater general experience and for analysts following fewer firms but find only limited evidence of lower accrual-related over-optimism for analysts from larger brokerages and for analysts following fewer industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S. Drake & Linda A. Myers, 2011. "Analysts’ accrual-related over-optimism: do analyst characteristics play a role?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 59-88, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:16:y:2011:i:1:d:10.1007_s11142-009-9118-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-009-9118-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11142-009-9118-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11142-009-9118-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis, Jennifer & Nanda, Dhananjay & Wang, Xin, 2006. "Re-examining the effects of regulation fair disclosure using foreign listed firms to control for concurrent shocks," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 271-292, September.
    2. Patricia M. Dechow & Amy P. Hutton & Richard G. Sloan, 2000. "The Relation between Analysts' Forecasts of Long†Term Earnings Growth and Stock Price Performance Following Equity Offerings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, March.
    3. Shuping Chen & Dawn A. Matsumoto, 2006. "Favorable versus Unfavorable Recommendations: The Impact on Analyst Access to Management‐Provided Information," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 657-689, September.
    4. Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G. & Soliman, Mark T. & Tuna, Irem, 2005. "Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 437-485, September.
    5. Elgers, Pieter T. & Lo, May H. & Pfeiffer, Ray Jr., 2003. "Analysts' vs. investors' weightings of accruals in forecasting annual earnings," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 255-280.
    6. Abarbanell, Jeffery S., 1991. "Do analysts' earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 147-165, June.
    7. Siew Hong Teoh & T. J. Wong, 2002. "Why New Issues and High-Accrual Firms Underperform: The Role of Analysts' Credulity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 869-900.
    8. Mikhail, MB & Walther, BR & Willis, RH, 1997. "Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35, pages 131-157.
    9. Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2003. "The effect of experience on security analyst underreaction," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 101-116, April.
    10. Jeffery S. Abarbanell & Reuven Lehavy, 2007. "Letting the “Tail Wag the Dog†: The Debate over GAAP versus Street Earnings Revisited," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(3), pages 675-723, September.
    11. Partha S. Mohanram & Shyam V. Sunder, 2006. "How Has Regulation FD Affected the Operations of Financial Analysts?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 491-525, June.
    12. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    14. Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October.
    15. Gintschel, Andreas & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "The effectiveness of Regulation FD," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 293-314, September.
    16. Mendenhall, Rr, 1991. "Evidence On The Possible Underweighting Of Earnings-Related Information," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 170-179.
    17. Libby, R & Frederick, Dm, 1990. "Experience And The Ability To Explain Audit Findings," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 348-367.
    18. Bradshaw, Mark T. & Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G., 2006. "The relation between corporate financing activities, analysts' forecasts and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 53-85, October.
    19. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    20. Hovakimian, Armen & Opler, Tim & Titman, Sheridan, 2001. "The Debt-Equity Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, March.
    21. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    22. Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
    23. Brucks, Merrie, 1985. "The Effects of Product Class Knowledge on Information Search Behavior," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, June.
    24. Dechow, Patricia M., 1994. "Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance : The role of accounting accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-42, July.
    25. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    26. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    27. Ron Kasznik & Maureen F. McNichols, 2002. "Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 727-759, June.
    28. Nelson, Karen K. & Barth, Mary E. & Cram, Donald, 2001. "Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows," Research Papers 1594r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    29. Douglas J. Skinner & Richard G. Sloan, 2002. "Earnings Surprises, Growth Expectations, and Stock Returns or Don't Let an Earnings Torpedo Sink Your Portfolio," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 289-312, June.
    30. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    31. Paul Hribar & Daniel W. Collins, 2002. "Errors in Estimating Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 105-134, March.
    32. Daniel W. Collins & Guojin Gong & Paul Hribar, 2003. "Investor Sophistication and the Mispricing of Accruals," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 251-276, June.
    33. Mashruwala, Christina & Rajgopal, Shivaram & Shevlin, Terry, 2006. "Why is the accrual anomaly not arbitraged away? The role of idiosyncratic risk and transaction costs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 3-33, October.
    34. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    35. Francis, J & Philbrick, D, 1993. "Analysts Decisions As Products Of A Multitask Environment," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 216-230.
    36. Mark T. Bradshaw & Scott A. Richardson & Richard G. Sloan, 2001. "Do Analysts and Auditors Use Information in Accruals?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 45-74, June.
    37. Anthony, Joseph H. & Ramesh, K., 1992. "Association between accounting performance measures and stock prices : A test of the life cycle hypothesis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 203-227, August.
    38. Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh & Peter D. Wysocki, 2004. "The Walk†down to Beatable Analyst Forecasts: The Role of Equity Issuance and Insider Trading Incentives," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 885-924, December.
    39. Jacob K. Thomas & Huai Zhang, 2002. "Inventory Changes and Future Returns," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 163-187, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    2. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    3. Lee, Bryan Byung-Hee & Lee, Jay Junghun, 2024. "Financial statement comparability and analysts’ optimism for accruals," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3).
    4. Yu, Fang (Frank), 2008. "Analyst coverage and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 245-271, May.
    5. Sanghyuk Byun & Kristin Roland, 2021. "Analyst bias and forecast consistency," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(4), pages 5403-5437, December.
    6. K. C. Kenneth Chu & W. H. Sophia Zhai, 2021. "Distress risk puzzle and analyst forecast optimism," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 429-460, August.
    7. K. Hung Chan & Ray R. Wang & Ruixin Wang, 2021. "The Macbeth Factor: The Dark Side of Achievement‐driving Analysts," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(2), pages 325-361, June.
    8. Liu, Alfred Zhu & Schneible, Richard, 2017. "Analysts' experience and interpretation of discretionary accruals in predicting future earnings," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 88-98.
    9. Mark T. Bradshaw & Michael S. Drake & James N. Myers & Linda A. Myers, 2012. "A re-examination of analysts’ superiority over time-series forecasts of annual earnings," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 944-968, December.
    10. Dana Hollie & Philip B. Shane & Qiuhong Zhao & Steven Cahan, 2017. "The role of financial analysts in stock market efficiency with respect to annual earnings and its cash and accrual components," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 199-237, March.
    11. Verhoeks, Ralph C. & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2024. "Wall street watches Washington: Asset pricing implications of policy uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    12. Bin Ke & Yong Yu, 2006. "The Effect of Issuing Biased Earnings Forecasts on Analysts' Access to Management and Survival," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 965-999, December.
    13. C. S. Agnes Cheng & K. C. Kenneth Chu & James Ohlson, 2020. "Analyst forecasts: sales and profit margins," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 54-83, March.
    14. David P. Weber, 2009. "Do Analysts and Investors Fully Appreciate the Implications of Book†Tax Differences for Future Earnings?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 1175-1206, December.
    15. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    16. Andrew C. Call & Shuping Chen & Yen H. Tong, 2009. "Are analysts’ earnings forecasts more accurate when accompanied by cash flow forecasts?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 358-391, September.
    17. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    18. Po‐Chang Chen & Ganapathi S. Narayanamoorthy & Theodore Sougiannis & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Analyst underreaction and the post‐forecast revision drift," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1151-1181, October.
    19. Xiaomeng Chen & Meiting Lu & Yaowen Shan & Yizhou Zhang, 2021. "Australian evidence on analysts' cash flow forecasts: issuance, accuracy and usefulness," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 3-50, March.
    20. Tsang, Albert & Xiang, Yi & Yu, Li, 2023. "Cross-border regulatory cooperation and analyst forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:16:y:2011:i:1:d:10.1007_s11142-009-9118-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.