IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v51y2013i4p701-737.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Underreaction to Industry‐Wide Earnings and the Post‐Forecast Revision Drift

Author

Listed:
  • KAI WAI HUI
  • P. ERIC YEUNG

Abstract

We test whether the post‐forecast revision drift is mainly attributable to investors’ underreaction to industry‐wide earnings news conveyed by analysts’ forecast revisions. We find a large drift associated with industry‐wide earnings news but no drift associated with firm‐specific earnings news. Consistent with the functional fixation hypothesis, we provide evidence that the post‐forecast revision drift is driven by investors’ underreaction to the higher persistence of industry‐wide earnings. Although prior research has focused on differential persistence of earnings components stemming from managerial reporting discretion, we provide evidence suggesting that investors do not fully understand the differential earnings persistence attributable to industry fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Wai Hui & P. Eric Yeung, 2013. "Underreaction to Industry‐Wide Earnings and the Post‐Forecast Revision Drift," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 701-737, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:51:y:2013:i:4:p:701-737
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12006
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-679X.12006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Grossman, Seth, 1986. "Discrete Expectational Data and Portfolio Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 699-713, July.
    2. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    3. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    4. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    5. Mueller,Dennis C., 2009. "Profits in the Long Run," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521101592.
    6. Ball, R, 1972. "Changes In Accounting Techniques And Stock Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10, pages 1-38.
    7. Givoly, Dan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1980. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : Their value to investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 221-233, September.
    8. Givoly, Dan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1979. "The information content of financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 165-185, December.
    9. Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G. & Soliman, Mark T. & Tuna, Irem, 2005. "Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 437-485, September.
    10. Preston R. Fee & Hugo M. Mialon & Michael A. Williams, 2004. "What Is a Barrier to Entry?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 461-465, May.
    11. Mashruwala, Christina & Rajgopal, Shivaram & Shevlin, Terry, 2006. "Why is the accrual anomaly not arbitraged away? The role of idiosyncratic risk and transaction costs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 3-33, October.
    12. Griffin, Paul A, 1976. "Competitive Information in the Stock Market: An Empirical Study of Earnings, Dividends and Analysts' Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 631-650, May.
    13. Sanjeev Bhojraj & Charles M. C. Lee & Derek K. Oler, 2003. "What's My Line? A Comparison of Industry Classification Schemes for Capital Market Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 745-774, December.
    14. Jeffrey T. Doyle & Russell J. Lundholm & Mark T. Soliman, 2006. "The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following I/B/E/S Earnings Surprises," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 849-887, December.
    15. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Joonghyuk Kim & Susan D. Krische & Charles M. C. Lee, 2004. "Analyzing the Analysts: When Do Recommendations Add Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1083-1124, June.
    16. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    17. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    18. John S. Howe & Emre Unlu & Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, 2009. "The Predictive Content of Aggregate Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 799-821, June.
    19. Ashiq Ali & Sandy Klasa & Eric Yeung, 2009. "The Limitations of Industry Concentration Measures Constructed with Compustat Data: Implications for Finance Research," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 3839-3871, October.
    20. Brad Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Maureen McNichols & Brett Trueman, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
    21. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
    22. Joshua Livnat & Richard R. Mendenhall, 2006. "Comparing the Post–Earnings Announcement Drift for Surprises Calculated from Analyst and Time Series Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 177-205, March.
    23. Amy P. Hutton & Lian Fen Lee & Susan Z. Shu, 2012. "Do Managers Always Know Better? The Relative Accuracy of Management and Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 1217-1244, December.
    24. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    25. Moyer, R. Charles & Chatfield, Robert E. & Sisneros, Phillip M., 1989. "Security Analyst Monitoring Activity: Agency Costs and Information Demands," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 503-512, December.
    26. Elgers, Pieter T. & Porter, Susan L. & Emily Xu, Le, 2008. "The timing of industry and firm earnings information in security prices: A re-evaluation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 78-93, March.
    27. Stuart C. Gilson & Paul M. Healy & Christopher F. Noe & Krishna G. Palepu, 2001. "Analyst Specialization and Conglomerate Stock Breakups," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 565-582, December.
    28. Chan, Kalok & Hameed, Allaudeen, 2006. "Stock price synchronicity and analyst coverage in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 115-147, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. K. C. Kenneth Chu & W. H. Sophia Zhai, 2021. "Distress risk puzzle and analyst forecast optimism," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 429-460, August.
    2. Shawn X. Huang & Sami Keskek & Juan Manuel Sanchez, 2022. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Option Vesting Terms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 773-795, January.
    3. Claire Y. C. Liang & Rengong Zhang, 2020. "Post-earnings announcement drift and parameter uncertainty: evidence from industry and market news," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 695-738, August.
    4. Vandenbruaene, Jonas & De Ceuster, Marc & Annaert, Jan, 2023. "Does time series momentum also exist outside traditional financial markets? Near-laboratory evidence from sports betting," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Philipp K. Illeditsch & Jayant V. Ganguli & Scott Condie, 2021. "Information Inertia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 443-479, February.
    6. Wu, Xuan & Tian, Gaoliang & Li, Yueting & Zhou, Qing, 2019. "On the pricing of the persistence of earnings components in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 112-132.
    7. Baker, H. Kent & Ni, Yang & Saadi, Samir & Zhu, Hui, 2019. "Competitive earnings news and post-earnings announcement drift," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 331-343.
    8. Jong‐Hag Choi & Sunhwa Choi & Linda A. Myers & David Ziebart, 2019. "Financial Statement Comparability and the Informativeness of Stock Prices About Future Earnings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 389-417, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Xi, 2005. "The persistence of relative performance in stock recommendations of sell-side financial analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 129-152, December.
    2. Kadan, Ohad & Madureira, Leonardo & Wang, Rong & Zach, Tzachi, 2012. "Analysts' industry expertise," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 95-120.
    3. Hsieh, Jim & Ng, Lilian & Wang, Qinghai, 2023. "How informative are insider trades and analyst recommendations?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Oya Altınkılıç & Vadim S. Balashov & Robert S. Hansen, 2013. "Are Analysts' Forecasts Informative to the General Public?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2550-2565, November.
    5. Yezegel, Ari, 2015. "Why do analysts revise their stock recommendations after earnings announcements?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 163-181.
    6. Hall, Jason L. & Tacon, Paul B., 2010. "Forecast accuracy and stock recommendations," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 18-33.
    7. Po-Jung Chen, 2016. "The Effects of Analysts’ Herding on Traders: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 203-227, June.
    8. Ryan Chacon & Dan French & Kuntara Pukthuanthong, 2018. "The Information Content of Analysts' Net Asset Value Estimates: The Case of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)," ERES eres2018_82, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Hui, Kai Wai & Nelson, Karen K. & Yeung, P. Eric, 2016. "On the persistence and pricing of industry-wide and firm-specific earnings, cash flows, and accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 185-202.
    10. Oleg V. Petrenko & Federico Aime & Tessa Recendes & Jeffrey A. Chandler, 2019. "The case for humble expectations: CEO humility and market performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 1938-1964, December.
    11. Engelberg, Joseph & McLean, R. David & Pontiff, Jeffrey, 2020. "Analysts and anomalies," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    12. Pasaribu, Rowland Bismark Fernando, 2010. "Anomali Overreaction di bursa efek Indonesia: Penelitian Saham LQ-45 [Overreaction Anomaly in Indonesia Stock Exchange: Case Study of LQ-45 Stocks]," MPRA Paper 36998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh, 2015. "A comparison of buy‐side and sell‐side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 42-51, January.
    14. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    15. Nerissa C. Brown & Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers, 2014. "Analyst Recommendations, Mutual Fund Herding, and Overreaction in Stock Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 1-20, January.
    16. Birru, Justin & Gokkaya, Sinan & Liu, Xi & Stulz, Rene M., 2019. "Are Analyst Trade Ideas Valuable?," Working Paper Series 2019-15, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    17. Marina Balboa & J. Carlos Gómez‐Sala & Germán López‐Espinosa, 2009. "The Value of Adjusting the Bias in Recommendations: International Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 208-230, January.
    18. Ambrus Kecskés & Roni Michaely & Kent L. Womack, 2017. "Do Earnings Estimates Add Value to Sell-Side Analysts’ Investment Recommendations?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1855-1871, June.
    19. Hobbs, Jeffrey & Singh, Vivek, 2015. "A comparison of buy-side and sell-side analysts," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-51.
    20. Lin, Mei-Chen, 2023. "Analyst coverage and the idiosyncratic skewness effect in the Taiwan stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:51:y:2013:i:4:p:701-737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-8456 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.