IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/arp/tjssrr/2019p1357-1364.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Interaction of Macroeconomic Variables on Capital Inflow in Emerging Market Countries in ASEAN: Panel Error Correction Model Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hasdi Aimon

    (Faculty of Economics, Universitas Negeri Padang, Padang, Indonesia)

  • Rika Utami Restihani

    (Faculty of Economics, Universitas Negeri Padang, Padang, Indonesia)

  • Anggi Putri Kurniadi*

    (Faculty of Economics, Universitas Negeri Padang, Padang, Indonesia)

Abstract

This study investigates the short and long-term determinants of capital inflows in emerging market countries in ASEAN using the Panel Error Correction Model. This study uses panel data with a time series from 2000 to 2017 and a cross-section of five countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam). This study has three important findings. First, conditions of exchange rate, foreign reserve, and lending rate disrupt the equilibrium of capital inflow in the short term. Second, current account conditions disrupt the equilibrium in the long term. Third, capital inflow will return to equilibrium in the long term. Therefore, it is highly recommended for emerging market countries in ASEAN to stabilize the variables that disrupt the equilibrium in the long and short term to stabilize their capital inflow.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasdi Aimon & Rika Utami Restihani & Anggi Putri Kurniadi*, 2019. "The Interaction of Macroeconomic Variables on Capital Inflow in Emerging Market Countries in ASEAN: Panel Error Correction Model Approach," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(9), pages 1357-1364, 09-2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:arp:tjssrr:2019:p:1357-1364
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.arpgweb.com/pdf-files/jssr5(9)1357-1364.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.arpgweb.com/journal/7/archive/09-2019/9/5
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    2. Pol Antràs & Ricardo J. Caballero, 2009. "Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 701-744, August.
    3. Yilmaz Bayar & Marius Dan Gavriletea, 2018. "Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Financial Development in Central and Eastern European Union Countries: A Panel Cointegration and Causality," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, May.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Ly Slesman & Evelyn Shyamala Devadason, 2017. "Types of Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth: New Evidence on Role of Financial Markets," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 768-789, August.
    5. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R. & Chamon, Marcos & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2012. "Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 407-421.
    6. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    7. repec:eco:journ1:2014-03-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alberola, Enrique & Erce, Aitor & Serena, José Maria, 2016. "International reserves and gross capital flows dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 151-171.
    9. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    10. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
    11. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    12. Samuel Adams & Daniel Sakyi & Eric Evans Osei Opoku, 2016. "Capital Inflows and Domestic Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 51(4), pages 328-343, November.
    13. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    14. Filipa Sá & Pascal Towbin & Tomasz Wieladek, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Financial Structure And Housing Booms," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 522-546, April.
    15. Zhaosu MENG & Wei WEI & Xiaotong LIU & Kedong YIN, 2018. "The Influence of International Capital Flow on the Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 21-40, December.
    16. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2010. "Determinants of capital inflows into Asia: The relevance of contagion effects as push factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 273-284, September.
    17. Josef Schroth, 2016. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle?," Staff Working Papers 16-53, Bank of Canada.
    18. Edem Kwame Mensah Klobodu & Samuel Adams, 2016. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth in Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 291-307, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang Zhou, 2022. "The Effects of Capital Controls on Housing Prices," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-29, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    2. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin, 2020. "The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 969-1003, August.
    3. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    4. McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "The great moderation in international capital flows: A global phenomenon?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 188-212.
    5. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    6. Aguirre, Pablo & Alonso, José Antonio & Jerez, Miguel, 2019. "Effectiveness of capital account regulation: Lessons from Brazil and Peru," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 176-194.
    7. Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 7, pages 205-253, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Capital inflows, equity issuance activity, and corporate investment," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    9. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    10. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    11. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    12. Wishnu Mahraddika, 2021. "How effective is capital flow management? The Indonesian experience," Departmental Working Papers 2021-15, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    13. Nasha Ananchotikul & Longmei Zhang, 2016. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 36., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jul 2016.
    14. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    15. Boubekeur Baba & Guven Sevil, 2020. "The behavior of stock market prices throughout the episodes of capital inflows," Papers 2008.13472, arXiv.org.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Capital flows and GDP in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 140-163.
    17. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Mileva, Elitza & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 386-398.
    18. Abdul Rashid & Fazal Husain, 2013. "Capital Inflows, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate Volatility- An Investigation for Linear and Nonlinear Causal Linkages," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 183-206.
    19. Boonman, Tjeerd, 2023. "Have drivers of portfolio capital flows changed since the Global Financial Crisis?," MPRA Paper 116507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2020. "Capital flows in the euro area and TARGET2 balances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arp:tjssrr:2019:p:1357-1364. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Managing Editor (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arpgweb.com/?ic=journal&journal=7&info=aims .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.