Whither Indian Wheat? Productivity Plateau, Spatial Heterogeneity, and R&D Targeting

The productivity plateau of Indian wheat during and after the 1990s has attracted significant research and development (R&D) investment and policy focus. Our paper explores the reasons for this phenomenon by analysing the regional differences in wheat production in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). We found that there was only a small yield gap to bridge in the irrigated, high-input systems of the Western IGP States (Punjab and Haryana), whereas further yield increases, in the range of 50–100 per cent, are possible in the Eastern States (Bihar and Jharkhand). In the West, wheat farmers require technologies to enhance the potential yield, and to curtail production cost and resource use, whereas technologies for minimisation of yield-gap are warranted in the East. Beyond designing the interventions, the enhancement of productivity and profitability requires more efficient targeting of innovations and institutional changes in marketing the output. Most wheat farmers of the Eastern IGP States do not obtain the minimum support price (MSP) declared by the Government of India. The lack of access to government markets might present disincentives to investing in wheat in these States, as evidenced by the slow varietal replacement rate and low rate of mechanisation of agriculture. We have identified three areas for further study: (i) how output price expectations affect farmer demand for newer varieties and the pace of mechanisation in wheat cultivation; (ii) which technologies are to be deployed in order to increase farmers’ income without increasing the cost of cultivation; and (iii) spatial and social targeting of technologies to reduce inequalities in agricultural development.