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Assessment of climate variability and trend on wheat productivity in West Bengal, India: crop growth simulation approach

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  • A. Mukherjee

    (Western Sydney University
    Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya)

  • A. K. S. Huda

    (Western Sydney University)

Abstract

Wheat is the second important cereal crop after rice in West Bengal. During last three decades, due to climate fluctuations and variability, the productivity of this crop remains almost constant, bringing the threat of food security of this State. The objectives of the present study were to assess the trend of climatic variables (rainfall, rainy days, and temperature) over six locations covering five major agro-climatic sub-zones of West Bengal and to estimate the variability of potential, simulated yield using crop simulation model (DSAATv4.5) and the yield gap with actual yield. There were no significant change of rainfall and rainy days in annual, seasonal and monthly scale at all the study sites. In general, the maximum temperature is decreasing throughout West Bengal. Except for Birbhum, the minimum temperature increased significantly in different study sites. District average yield of wheat varied from 1757 kg ha−1 at Jalpaiguri to 2421 kg ha−1at Birbhum. The actual yield trend ranged from − 4.7 kg ha−1 year−1 at Nadia to 32.8 kg ha−1 year−1 at Birbhum. Decreasing trend of potential yield was observed in Terai (Jalpaiguri), New Alluvial Zone (Nadia) and Coastal saline zone (South 24 Parganas), which is alarming for food security in West Bengal.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Mukherjee & A. K. S. Huda, 2018. "Assessment of climate variability and trend on wheat productivity in West Bengal, India: crop growth simulation approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 235-252, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2113-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2113-y
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    2. Abbas Ali, Chandio & Yuansheg, Jiang & Asad, Amin & Waqar, Akram & Ilhan, Ozturk & Avik, Sinha & Fayyaz, Ahmad, 2021. "Modeling the impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on cereal production: evidence from Indian agricultural sector," MPRA Paper 110065, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    3. Jose, Monish & Krishna, Vijesh V., 2021. "Whither Indian Wheat? Productivity Plateau, Spatial Heterogeneity, and R&D Targeting," Review of Agrarian Studies, Foundation for Agrarian Studies, vol. 11(01), June.

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