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Weather-Based Adverse Selection And The U.S. Crop Insurance Program: The Private Insurance Company Perspective

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  • Ker, Alan P.
  • McGowan, Pat

Abstract

Surprisingly, investigations of adverse selection have focused only on farmers. Conversely, this article investigates if insurance companies, not farmers, can generate excess rents from adverse selection activities. Currently political forces fashioning crop insurance as the cornerstone of U.S. agricultural policy make our analysis particularly topical. Focusing on El Nino/La Nina and winter wheat in Texas, we simulate out-of-sample reinsurance decisions during the 1978 through 1997 crop years while reflecting the realities imposed by the risk-sharing arrangement between the insurance companies and the federal government. The simulations indicate that economically and statistically significant excess rents may be garnered by insurance companies through weather-based adverse selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Ker, Alan P. & McGowan, Pat, 2000. "Weather-Based Adverse Selection And The U.S. Crop Insurance Program: The Private Insurance Company Perspective," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(02), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30907
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/30907
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goodwin, Barry K. & Ker, Alan P., 1998. "Revenue Insurance: A New Dimension in Risk Management," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 13(4).
    2. Quiggin, John C. & Karagiannis, Giannis & Stanton, J., 1993. "Crop Insurance And Crop Production: An Empirical Study Of Moral Hazard And Adverse Selection," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 37(02), August.
    3. Goodwin, Barry K., 1994. "Premium Rate Determination In The Federal Crop Insurance Program: What Do Averages Have To Say About Risk?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December.
    4. Jerry R. Skees & J. Roy Black & Barry J. Barnett, 1997. "Designing and Rating an Area Yield Crop Insurance Contract," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 430-438.
    5. Baquet, Alan E. & Skees, Jerry R., 1994. "Group Risk Plan Insurance: An Alternative Management Tool for Farmers," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 9(1).
    6. Ker, Alan P. & Coble, Keith H., 1998. "On Choosing A Base Coverage Level For Multiple Peril Crop Insurance Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(02), December.
    7. Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 439-447.
    8. Kennedy, Peter E, 1995. "Randomization Tests in Econometrics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 85-94, January.
    9. Mario J. Miranda & Joseph W. Glauber, 1997. "Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 206-215.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jesse B. Tack & David Ubilava, 2015. "Climate and agricultural risk: measuring the effect of ENSO on U.S. crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(2), pages 245-257, March.
    2. Deryugina, Tatyana, 2012. "Does Selection in Insurance Markets Always Favor Buyers?," MPRA Paper 53583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ubilava, David & holt, Matt, 2013. "El Ni~no southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(2), June.
    4. Tor N. Tolhurst & Alan P. Ker, 2015. "On Technological Change in Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 137-158.
    5. Martin, Steven W. & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H., 2001. "Developing And Pricing Precipitation Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
    6. Christopher N. Boyer & B. Wade Brorsen & Emmanuel Tumusiime, 2015. "Modeling skewness with the linear stochastic plateau model to determine optimal nitrogen rates," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 1-10, January.
    7. Miguel A. Carriquiry & Walter E. Baethgen, 2016. "Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management: Implications for Insurance Design," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 16-03, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    8. Ker, Alan. P & Tolhurst, Tor & Liu, Yong, 2015. "Rating Area-yield Crop Insurance Contracts Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Mixture Models," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205211, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    Risk and Uncertainty;

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