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Citations for "On the frequency of large stock returns: putting booms and busts into perspective"

by Dennis Jansen & Casper de Vries

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  1. Danielsson, J. & de Haan, L. & Peng, L. & de Vries, C. G., 2001. "Using a Bootstrap Method to Choose the Sample Fraction in Tail Index Estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 226-248, February.
  2. Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2011. "Estimating the Marginal Law of a Time Series with Applications to Heavy Tailed Distributions," Working Papers 2011-30, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  3. Kaehler, Jürgen, 1993. "On the modelling of speculative prices by stable Paretian distributions and regularly varying tails," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-25, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  4. Campbell, Rachel A.J. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Koedijk, Kees G. & Kofman, Paul, 2008. "Increasing correlations or just fat tails?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-309, March.
  5. Zhou, Chen, 2010. "Dependence structure of risk factors and diversification effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 531-540, June.
  6. Hyung, Namwon & de Vries, Casper G., 2012. "Simulating and calibrating diversification against black swans," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1162-1175.
  7. Gimeno, Ricardo & Gonzalez, Clara I., 2012. "An automatic procedure for the estimation of the tail index," MPRA Paper 37023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Turan G. Bali & Salih N. Neftci, 2002. "Disturbing Extremal Behavior of Spot Rate Dynamics," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2002-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  9. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2009. "Test of Higher Moment Capital Asset Pricing Model in Case of Pakistani Equity Market," MPRA Paper 38059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
  11. Andrea Morone, 2008. "Financial markets in the laboratory: an experimental analysis of some stylized facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 513-532.
  12. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, 05.
  14. Daníelsson, Jón & Jorgensen, Bjørn N. & Samorodnitsky, Gennady & Sarma, Mandira & de Vries, Casper G., 2013. "Fat tails, VaR and subadditivity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 283-291.
  15. François, LONGIN & Bruno, SOLNIK, 1998. "Correlation Structure of International Equity Markets During Extremely Volatile Periods," Les Cahiers de Recherche 646, HEC Paris.
  16. Gus, Garita & Chen, Zhou, 2011. "Averting Currency Crises: The Pros and Cons of Financial Openness," MPRA Paper 30218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson & Deyuan Li & Hongyi Li & Sidney Resnick & Casper G. de Vries, 2013. "The Impact of Competition on Prices with Numerous Firms," Working Papers 13-07, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  18. Chen Zou, 2009. "Dependence structure of risk factors and diversification effects," DNB Working Papers 219, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  19. K. D. Patterson & S. M. Heravi, 2003. "The impact of fat-tailed distributions on some leading unit roots tests," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 635-667.
  20. Jalal, Amine & Rockinger, Michael, 2008. "Predicting tail-related risk measures: The consequences of using GARCH filters for non-GARCH data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 868-877, December.
  21. Peter C.B. Phillips & James W. McFarland & Patrick C. McMahon, 1994. "Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920's," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1080, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  22. Geluk, J.L. & de Vries, C.G., 2004. "Weighted sums of subexponential random variables and asymptotic dependence between returns on reinsurance equities," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-47, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  23. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Scholarly Articles 2624460, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. de Lima, Pedro J. F., 1997. "On the robustness of nonlinearity tests to moment condition failure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 251-280.
  25. Gus Garita & Chen Zhou, 2009. "Can Open Capital Markets Help Avoid Currency Crises?," DNB Working Papers 205, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  26. Maarten van Oordt & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Systematic risk under extremely adverse market condition," DNB Working Papers 281, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  27. S. T. M. Straetmans & W. F. C. Verschoor & C. C. P. Wolff, 2008. "Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9|11," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 17-42.
  28. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2011. "Identifying Extreme Values of Exchange Market Pressure," Carleton Economic Papers 11-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  29. Emma M. Iglesias & Oliver Linton, 2009. "Estimation of tail thickness parameters from GJR-GARCH models," Economics Working Papers we094726, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  30. Rustam Ibragimov, 2005. "Portfolio Diversification and Value At Risk Under Thick-Tailedness," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2386, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2005.
  31. Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market-A copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 743-759, September.
  32. Holger Drees & Laurens F.M. de Haan & Sidney Resnick, 1998. "How to make a Hill Plot," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-090/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  33. C.G. de vries, 2004. "The simple economics of bank fragility," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 755, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  34. Marian Vavra, 2012. "Testing Non-linearity Using a Modified Q Test," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1204, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  35. Candelon, Bertrand & Straetmans, Stefan, 2006. "Testing for multiple regimes in the tail behavior of emerging currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1187-1205, November.
  36. Pedro J. F. de Lima & Michelle L. Barnes, 2000. "Modeling Financial Volatility: Extreme Observations, Nonlinearities and Nonstationarities," School of Economics Working Papers 2000-05, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  37. Geluk, J.L. & De Vries, C.G., 2006. "Weighted sums of subexponential random variables and asymptotic dependence between returns on reinsurance equities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 39-56, February.
  38. repec:dgr:uvatin:1998090 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2002. "How deep was the September 2001 stock market crisis?: putting recent events on the American and French markets into perspective with an index of market shocks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24936, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  40. James Y. Yao & Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Donald J. Mathieson, 2002. "Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/98, International Monetary Fund.
  41. Pais, Amelia & Stork, Philip A., 2011. "Contagion risk in the Australian banking and property sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 681-697, March.
  42. Donald J. Brown & Rustam Ibragimov, 2005. "Sign Tests for Dependent Observations and Bounds for Path-Dependent Options," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1518, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  43. Yi-Ting Chen, 2002. "On the Robustness of Ljung-Box and McLeod-Li Q Tests: A Simulation Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(17), pages 1-10.
  44. Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki & Eugene Stanley, H., 2008. "Quantifying and understanding the economics of large financial movements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 303-319, January.
  45. Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2013. "Early warning systems for currency crises: A multivariate extreme value approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 151-171.
  46. Cotter, John & Longin, Francois, 2004. "Margin setting with high-frequency data," MPRA Paper 3528, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
  47. Slijkerman, Jan Frederik & Schoenmaker, Dirk & de Vries, Casper G., 2013. "Systemic risk and diversification across European banks and insurers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 773-785.
  48. Longin, Francois M., 2000. "From value at risk to stress testing: The extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1097-1130, July.
  49. Jonathan Wiley & Leonard Zumpano, 2009. "Institutional Investment and the Turn-of-the-Month Effect: Evidence from REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 180-201, August.
  50. Jon Danielsson & Bjørn N. Jorgensen & Mandira Sarma & C. G. de Vries, 2005. "Comparing downside risk measures for heavy tailed distribution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24671, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  51. Terence D.Agbeyegbe, 2003. "The tail behavior of stock index return on the Jamaican Stock Exchange," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 305, Hunter College Department of Economics.
  52. ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2001. "Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns," Les Cahiers de Recherche 739, HEC Paris.
  53. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk, 2006. "Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 547-563, April.
  54. Longin, François & Solnik, Bruno H, 2000. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  55. Rustam Ibragimov & Johan Walden, 2011. "Value at risk and efficiency under dependence and heavy-tailedness: models with common shocks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 285-318, August.
  56. G. Booth & John Broussard, 1998. "Setting NYSE Circuit Breaker Triggers," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 187-204, June.
  57. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Economics Working Papers 2008,08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  58. Chollete, Loran, 2011. "A Model of Endogenous Extreme Events," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/2, University of Stavanger.
  59. Poon, Ser-Huang & Rockinger, Michael & Tawn, Jonathan, 2001. "New Extreme-Value Dependence Measures and Finance Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 2762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  60. Jan Frederik Slijkerman & Dirk Schoenmaker & Casper de Vries, 2005. "Risk Diversification by European Financial Conglomerates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-110/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  61. Chollete, Lorán, 2008. "The Propagation of Financial Extremes: An Application to Subprime Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers 2008/2, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  62. Fong, Wai Mun, 2003. "Time reversibility tests of volume-volatility dynamics for stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 39-45, October.
  63. Tong, Bin & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2012. "Risk concentration of aggregated dependent risks: The second-order properties," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 139-149.
  64. Haque, Mahfuzul & Kabir Hassan, M. & Varela, Oscar, 2004. "Safety-first portfolio optimization for US investors in emerging global, Asian and Latin American markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-116, January.
  65. P. Bertrand & J.L. Prigent, 2000. "Portfolio Insurance : The extreme Value of the CCPI Method," THEMA Working Papers 2000-49, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  66. repec:dgr:uvatin:2010082 is not listed on IDEAS
  67. repec:wii:bpaper:bowp:088 is not listed on IDEAS
  68. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
  69. Simon A. BRODA & Markus HAAS & Jochen KRAUSE & Marc S. PAOLELLA & Sven C. STEUDE, . "Stable Mixture GARCH Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 11-39, Swiss Finance Institute.
  70. Epaminondas Panas & Vassilia Ninni, 2010. "The Distribution of London Metal Exchange Prices: A Test of the Fractal Market Hypothesis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 192-210.
  71. Einmahl, J.H.J. & Haan, L.F.M. de & Zhou, C., 2014. "Statistics of Heteroscedastic Extremes," Discussion Paper 2014-015, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  72. K. Minderhoud, 2006. "Systemic Risk in the Dutch Financial Sector," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 177-195, June.
  73. Wang, Jying-Nan & Yeh, Jin-Huei & Cheng, Nick Ying-Pin, 2011. "How accurate is the square-root-of-time rule in scaling tail risk: A global study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1158-1169, May.
  74. Ibragimov, Rustam, 2014. "On the robustness of location estimators in models of firm growth under heavy-tailedness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 25-33.
  75. repec:dgr:uvatin:2007023 is not listed on IDEAS
  76. repec:dgr:uvatin:2004102 is not listed on IDEAS
  77. Kyle Moore & Chen Zhou, 2012. "Identifying systemically important financial institutions: size and other determinants," DNB Working Papers 347, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  78. Krehbiel, Tim & Adkins, Lee C., 2008. "Extreme daily changes in U.S. Dollar London inter-bank offer rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 397-411.
  79. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2551-2569, August.
  80. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper G. De Vries, 2005. "Banking System Stability: A Cross-Atlantic Perspective," NBER Working Papers 11698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2008. "Portfolio diversification under local and moderate deviations from power laws," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 594-599, April.
  82. Haile, Fasika & Pozo, Susan, 2008. "Currency crisis contagion and the identification of transmission channels," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 572-588, October.
  83. Zhou, Chen, 2013. "The impact of imposing capital requirements on systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 320-329.
  84. Rustam Ibragimov & Marat Ibragimov & Rufat Khamidov, 2010. "Measuring Inequality in CIS Countries: Theory and Empirics," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 88, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  85. Phillip Wild & John Foster, 2012. "On testing for non-linear and time irreversible probabilistic structure in high frequency ASX financial time series data," Discussion Papers Series 466, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  86. Jansen, Dennis W. & Koedijk, Kees G. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Portfolio selection with limited downside risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 247-269, November.
  87. repec:dgr:uvatin:2005008 is not listed on IDEAS
  88. M. F. Omran, 1997. "Moment condition failure in stock returns: UK evidence," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 201-206.
  89. Meagan M. Jordan, 2003. "Punctuations and agendas: A new look at local government budget expenditures," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 345-360.
  90. LONGIN, François & SOLNIK, Bruno, 2000. "Extreme correlation of international equity markets," Les Cahiers de Recherche 705, HEC Paris.
  91. Nirei, Makoto & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2011. "Jumps in foreign exchange rates and stochastic unwinding of carry trades," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 110-127, January.
  92. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Determination Of Volatility And Mean Returns: An Evidence From An Emerging Stock Market," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1), pages 103-118.
  93. Straetmans, Stefan & Candelon, Bertrand, 2013. "Long-term asset tail risks in developed and emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1832-1844.
  94. ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 1999. "The Tail Behavior of Stock Returns: Emerging versus Mature Markets," Les Cahiers de Recherche 668, HEC Paris.
  95. Ghose, Devajyoti & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "The relationship between GARCH and symmetric stable processes: Finding the source of fat tails in financial data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-251, September.
  96. Raúl Susmel, 1998. "Extreme Observations and Diversification in Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 138, Universidad del CEMA.
  97. Assaf, A., 2009. "Extreme observations and risk assessment in the equity markets of MENA region: Tail measures and Value-at-Risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 109-116, June.
  98. Jon Danielsson & Hyun Song Shin & Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 2012. "Endogenous Extreme Events and the Dual Role of Prices," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 111-129, 07.
  99. Ibragimov, Rustam & Jaffee, Dwight & Walden, Johan, 2011. "Diversification disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 333-348, February.
  100. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1997. "Do We Often Find ARCH Because Of Neglected Outliers?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9706-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  101. Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki & Stanley, Eugene, 2007. "A unified econophysics explanation for the power-law exponents of stock market activity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 81-88.
  102. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  103. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.
  104. Susmel, Raul, 2001. "Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 971-986, December.
  105. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2010. "Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," NBER Working Papers 16223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  106. Makoto Nirei, 2008. "Self-organized criticality in a herd behavior model of financial markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 89-97, June.
  107. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2006. "Predictability in Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: Evidence from KSE 100 Stock Price Index," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 369-381.
  108. Kaehler, Jürgen & Marnet, Volker, 1993. "Markov-switching models for exchange-rate dynamics and the pricing of foreign-currency options," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-03, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  109. DiTraglia, Francis J. & Gerlach, Jeffrey R., 2013. "Portfolio selection: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 305-323.
  110. Garita, Gus & Zhou, Chen, 2009. "Can Financial Openness Help Avoid Currency Crises?," MPRA Paper 23166, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jun 2010.
  111. Longin, François, 1999. "From Value at Risk to Stress Testing: The Extreme Value Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 2161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  112. Jon Danielsson & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "Beyond the Sample: Extreme Quantile and Probability Estimation," FMG Discussion Papers dp298, Financial Markets Group.
  113. Chao Huang & Jin-Guan Lin & Yan-Yan Ren, 2012. "Statistical Inferences for Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Interior Penalty Function Algorithm and Bootstrap Methods and Applications in Analyzing Stock Data," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 173-193, February.
  114. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2002:i:17:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  115. Chollete, Loran & de la Pena , Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/26, University of Stavanger.
  116. Lux, Thomas, 2006. "Financial power laws: Empirical evidence, models, and mechanism," Economics Working Papers 2006,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  117. repec:dgr:uvatin:2098090 is not listed on IDEAS
  118. Toni Gravelle & Fuchun Li, 2011. "Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach," Working Papers 11-19, Bank of Canada.
  119. Campbell, Rachel & Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees, 2001. "Optimal portfolio selection in a Value-at-Risk framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1789-1804, September.
  120. Donald Brown & Rustam Ibragimov, 2005. "Sign Tests for Dependent Observations and Bounds for Path-Dependent Options," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2581, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2005.