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Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920s

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  • Phillips, Peter C B
  • McFarland, James W
  • McMahon, Patrick C

Abstract

This paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies. The methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data. They are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails, and they can be applied to data sets where the frequency of observation and the futures maturity do not coincide. In addition, our methods allow for stochastic trend nonstationarity and general forms of serial dependence. The methods are applied to daily data of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates during the 1920's, which marked the first episode of a broadly general floating exchange rate system. The tail behavior of the data is analyzed using an adaptive data-based method for estimating the tail slope of the density. The results confirm the need for the use of robust regression methods. We find cointegration between the forward rate and spot rate for the four currencies we consider (the Belgian and French francs, the Italian lira and the US dollar, all measured against the British pound), we find support for a stationary risk premium in the case of the Belgian franc, the Italian lira and the US dollar, and we find support for the simple market efficiency hypothesis (where the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate and there is a zero mean risk premium) in the case of the US dollar.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 11 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (Jan.-Feb.)
Pages: 1-22

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:11:y:1996:i:1:p:1-22

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References

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1990. "A Shortcut to LAD Estimator Asymptotics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 949, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Chan, Ngai Hang & Tran, Lanh Tat, 1989. "On the First-Order Autoregressive Process with Infinite Variance," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 354-362, December.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1017, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March.
  5. Phillip Kearns & Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Estimating The Density Tail Index For Financial Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 171-175, May.
  6. Koedijk, C.G. & Kool, C.J.M., 1992. "Tail estimates of East European exchange rates," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108733, Tilburg University.
  7. Levine, Ross, 1989. "The pricing of forward exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 163-179, June.
  8. Phillips, Peter C.B., 1995. "Robust Nonstationary Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 912-951, October.
  9. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Time Series Modeling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: Concepts, Illustrations and Asymptotics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1038, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1989. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root and Infinite Variance Errors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 897R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  11. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-78, September.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  13. Corbae, Dean & Lim, Kian-Guan & Ouliaris, Sam, 1992. "On Cointegration and Tests of Forward Market Unbiasedness," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 728-32, November.
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  15. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:4:p:450-63 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
  17. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  18. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 307-17, July.
  19. Knight, Keith, 1991. "Limit Theory for M-Estimates in an Integrated Infinite Variance," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 200-212, June.
  20. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Unit Root Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1104, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  21. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  22. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:2:p:200-212 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
  24. Bowden,Roger J. & Turkington,Darrell A., 1990. "Instrumental Variables," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521385824, October.
  25. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  26. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-43, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & James W. McFarland, 1993. "Forward Exchange Market Unbiasedness: The Case of the Australian Dollar Since 1984," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1055, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised 1996.
  2. Tore Selland Kleppe & Jun Yu & Hans J. Skaug, 2012. "Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Latent Diffusion Models," Working Papers 12-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  3. Hodgson, D.J., 1995. "Adaptive Estimation of Cointegrating Regressions with ARMA Errors," RCER Working Papers 408, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Alex Maynard, 2003. "Testing for Forward-Rate Unbiasedness: On Regression in Levels and in Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 313-327, May.
  5. John Cotter, 2011. "Varying the VaR for Unconditional and Conditional Environments," Papers 1103.5649, arXiv.org.
  6. John Cotter, 2011. "Tail Behaviour of the Euro," Working Papers 200417, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  7. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1999. "Re-examining forward market efficiency Evidence from fractional and Harris-Inder cointegration tests," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 433-453, November.
  8. Cotter, John, 2001. "Margin exceedences for European stock index futures using extreme value theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1475-1502, August.
  9. Gallagher, Liam A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "Measuring the temporary component of stock prices: robust multivariate analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 193-200, May.
  10. Nucci, Francesco, 2003. "Cross-currency, cross-maturity forward exchange premiums as predictors of spot rate changes: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 183-200, February.

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