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Varying the VaR for Unconditional and Conditional Environments

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Author Info
Cotter, John

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Abstract

Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from twelve European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional distributions for single and multi-period settings. These measures underpinned by extreme value theory are statistically robust explicitly allowing for fat-tailed densities. Conditional tail estimates are obtained by adjusting the unconditional extreme value procedure with GARCH filtered returns. The conditional modelling results in iid returns allowing for the use of a simple and efficient multi-period extreme value scaling law. The paper examines the properties of these distinct conditional and unconditional trading models. The paper finds that the biases inherent in unconditional single and multi-period estimates assuming normality extend to the conditional setting.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3483/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3483.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3483

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G0 - Financial Economics - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Phillip Kearns & Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Estimating The Density Tail Index For Financial Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 171-175, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-081, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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  3. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-16, April.
  4. Ghose, Devajyoti & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "The relationship between GARCH and symmetric stable processes: Finding the source of fat tails in financial data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-251, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jansen, Dennis W. & Koedijk, Kees G. & de Vries, Casper G., 2000. "Portfolio selection with limited downside risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 247-269, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cotter, John, 2000. "Margin Exceedences for European Stock Index Futures using Extreme Value Theory," MPRA Paper 3534, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jón Daníelsson & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "Value-at-Risk and Extreme Returns," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-017/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Spectral Risk Measures with an Application to Futures Clearinghouse Variation Margin Requirements," MPRA Paper 3495, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "The tail risks of FX return distributions: a comparison of the returns associated with limit orders and market orders," MPRA Paper 3493, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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