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Tail Behaviour of the Euro

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Author Info
Cotter, John

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Abstract

This paper empirically analyses risk in the Euro relative to other currencies. Comparisons are made between a sub period encompassing the final transitional stage to full monetary union with a sub period prior to this. Stability in the face of speculative attack is examined using Extreme Value Theory to obtain estimates of tail exchange rate changes. The findings are encouraging. The Euro’s common risk measures do not deviate substantially from other currencies. Also, the Euro is stable in the face of speculative pressure. For example, the findings consistently show the Euro being less risky than the Yen, and having similar inherent risk to the Deutsche Mark, the currency that it is essentially replacing.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3531.

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Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision: 2005
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3531

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 1998. "The emergence of the euro as an international currency," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 305-343, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas, 1996. "Modelling the sterling-deutschmark exchange rate: Non-linear dependence and thick tails," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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  4. Dooley, Michael, 1998. "Speculative Attacks on a Monetary Union?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(1), pages 21-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ghose, Devajyoti & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "The relationship between GARCH and symmetric stable processes: Finding the source of fat tails in financial data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-251, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2000. "Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian," NBER Working Papers 7488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Phillip Kearns & Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Estimating The Density Tail Index For Financial Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 171-175, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. " Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Koedijk, Kees G & Kool, Clemens J M, 1994. "Tail Estimates and the EMS Target Zone," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 153-65, June.
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  18. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Neely, Christopher J., 1999. "Target zones and conditional volatility: The role of realignments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 177-192, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Cotter, 2006. "Modelling catastrophic risk in international equity markets: an extreme value approach," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 13-17, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "Intra-Day Seasonality in Foreign Exchange Market Transactions," MPRA Paper 3502, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "The tail risks of FX return distributions: a comparison of the returns associated with limit orders and market orders," MPRA Paper 3493, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. John Cotter, 2006. "Extreme Value Estimation of Boom and Crash Statistics," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 553-566, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. John Cotter, 2005. "Extreme risk in futures contracts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 489-492, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cotter, John, 2004. "Modelling extreme financial returns of global equity markets," MPRA Paper 3532, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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