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Extreme Value Estimation of Boom and Crash Statistics

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  • John Cotter

Abstract

Extreme price movements associated with market crashes and booms have catastrophic repercussions for all investors and it is necessary to make accurate predictions of the frequency and severity of these events. This paper investigates the extreme behaviour of equity market returns and quantifies the possible losses experienced during financial crises. Extreme value theory using the block maxima method is applied to equity indices representing American, Asian and European markets. The empirical evidence shows that the tail indices are characterized by the fat-tailed Frechet distribution. Extreme return levels associated with market crashes are more severe than booms. Asian markets exhibit the largest propensity for experiencing crashes and booms.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518470500460111
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 12 (2006)
Issue (Month): 6-7 ()
Pages: 553-566

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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:12:y:2006:i:6-7:p:553-566

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Related research

Keywords: Extreme value theory; market crashes and booms;

References

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  1. John Cotter, 2011. "Tail Behaviour of the Euro," Papers 1103.5418, arXiv.org.
  2. Broussard, John Paul, 2001. "Extreme-value and margin setting with and without price limits," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 365-385.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-10, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  4. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2000. "The Nasdaq crash of April 2000: Yet another example of log-periodicity in a speculative bubble ending in a crash," Papers cond-mat/0004263, arXiv.org, revised May 2000.
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Cited by:
  1. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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