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Intra-Day Seasonality in Foreign Exchange Market Transactions

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  • john cotter
  • kevin dowd

Abstract

This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system indicates significant evidence of intraday seasonality in returns and return volatilities under usual market conditions. Moreover, analysis of realised tail outcomes supports seasonality for extraordinary market conditions across the trading day.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1103.5664
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1103.5664.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.5664

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  1. Brockman, Paul & Chung, Dennis Y., 2008. "Commonality under market stress: Evidence from an order-driven market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 179-196.
  2. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  4. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-16, April.
  5. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2007. "The tail risks of FX return distributions: A comparison of the returns associated with limit orders and market orders," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 146-154, September.
  6. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2006. "Intra-day Seasonality in Activities of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from the Electronic Broking System," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-407, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  7. John Cotter, 2011. "Tail Behaviour of the Euro," Working Papers 200417, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  8. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
  9. Lo, Ingrid & Sapp, Stephen G., 2008. "The submission of limit orders or market orders: The role of timing and information in the Reuters D2000-2 system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1056-1073, November.
  10. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  11. Carlson, John A. & Lo, Melody, 2006. "One minute in the life of the DM/US$: Public news in an electronic market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1090-1102, November.
  12. Harris, Lawrence & Hasbrouck, Joel, 1996. "Market vs. Limit Orders: The SuperDOT Evidence on Order Submission Strategy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(02), pages 213-231, June.
  13. Michael A. Goldstein & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, . "Liquidity Provision during Circuit Breakers and Extreme Market Movements," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  14. de Haan, Laurens & Resnick, Sidney I. & Rootzén, Holger & de Vries, Casper G., 1989. "Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to arch processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-224, August.
  15. Longin, Francois M., 2000. "From value at risk to stress testing: The extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1097-1130, July.
  16. Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees G. & Kool, Clemens J.M. & Palm, Franz, 2001. "Tail-index estimates in small samples," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-5756, Maastricht University.
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