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Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920's

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Abstract

This paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies. The methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data. They are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails, and they can be applied to data sets where the frequency of observation and the futures maturity do not coincide. In addition, our methods allow for stochastic trend nonstationarity and general forms of serial dependence. The methods are applied to daily data of spot exchange rates and forward exchange rates during the 1920's, which marked the first episode of a broadly general floating exchange rate system. The tail behavior of the data is analyzed using an adaptive data-based method for estimating the tail slope of the density. The results confirm the need for the use of robust regression methods. We find cointegration between the forward rate and spot rate for the four currencies we consider (the Belgian and French francs, the Italian lira and the US dollar, all measured against the British pound), we find support for a stationary risk premium in the case of the Belgian franc, the Italian lira and the US dollar, and we find support for the simple market efficiency hypothesis (where the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate and there is a zero mean risk premium) in the case of the US dollar.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d10b/d1080.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1080.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Sep 1994
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Applied Econometrics (1996), 11: 1-22
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1080

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References

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  1. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August.
  2. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
  3. Dennis Jansen & Casper de Vries, 1988. "On the frequency of large stock returns: putting booms and busts into perspective," Working Papers 1989-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-78, September.
  5. Phillips, P.C.B., 1991. "A Shortcut to LAD Estimator Asymptotics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 450-463, December.
  6. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-43, January.
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Unit Root Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1104, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Ross Levine, 1987. "The pricing of forward exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 312, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  10. Phillips, P.C.B., 1990. "Time Series Regression With a Unit Root and Infinite-Variance Errors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 44-62, March.
  11. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March.
  12. Phillips, Peter C.B., 1995. "Robust Nonstationary Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 912-951, October.
  13. Knight, Keith, 1991. "Limit Theory for M-Estimates in an Integrated Infinite Variance," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 200-212, June.
  14. Corbae, Dean & Lim, Kian-Guan & Ouliaris, Sam, 1992. "On Cointegration and Tests of Forward Market Unbiasedness," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 728-32, November.
  15. Chan, Ngai Hang & Tran, Lanh Tat, 1989. "On the First-Order Autoregressive Process with Infinite Variance," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 354-362, December.
  16. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  17. Koedijk, Kees G & Kool, Clemens J M, 1992. "Tail Estimates of East European Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(1), pages 83-96, January.
  18. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  19. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:4:p:450-63 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Phillip Kearns & Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Estimating The Density Tail Index For Financial Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 171-175, May.
  21. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  22. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  23. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Time Series Modeling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: Concepts, Illustrations and Asymptotics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1038, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  24. Bowden,Roger J. & Turkington,Darrell A., 1990. "Instrumental Variables," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521385824, 9.
  25. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 307-17, July.
  26. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:2:p:200-212 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. John Cotter, 2011. "Varying the VaR for Unconditional and Conditional Environments," Papers 1103.5649, arXiv.org.
  2. Cotter, John, 2000. "Margin Exceedences for European Stock Index Futures using Extreme Value Theory," MPRA Paper 3534, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  3. Nucci, Francesco, 2003. "Cross-currency, cross-maturity forward exchange premiums as predictors of spot rate changes: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 183-200, February.
  4. Tore Selland Kleppe & Jun Yu & Hans J. Skaug, 2012. "Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Latent Diffusion Models," Working Papers 12-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  5. Gallagher, Liam A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "Measuring the temporary component of stock prices: robust multivariate analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 193-200, May.
  6. John Cotter, 2011. "Tail Behaviour of the Euro," Papers 1103.5418, arXiv.org.
  7. Hodgson, Douglas J., 1998. "Adaptive estimation of cointegrating regressions with ARMA errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 231-267, August.
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips & James W. McFarland, 1993. "Forward Exchange Market Unbiasedness: The Case of the Australian Dollar Since 1984," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1055, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised 1996.
  9. R.D. Rossiter, 2002. "Term structure of forward exchange premiums: evidence from the 1920s," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 33-47, January.
  10. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1999. "Re-examining forward market efficiency Evidence from fractional and Harris-Inder cointegration tests," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 433-453, November.
  11. Alex Maynard, 2003. "Testing for Forward-Rate Unbiasedness: On Regression in Levels and in Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 313-327, May.

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