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Cross-currency, cross-maturity forward exchange premiums as predictors of spot rate changes: Theory and evidence

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  • Nucci, Francesco

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  • Nucci, Francesco, 2003. "Cross-currency, cross-maturity forward exchange premiums as predictors of spot rate changes: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 183-200, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:27:y:2003:i:2:p:183-200
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    1. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-39, September.
    2. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
    3. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 1998. "Foreign exchange market efficiency revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 831-838, October.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    5. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-181, March.
    6. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
    7. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The term structure of euromarket interest rates : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
    10. Phillips, Peter C B & McFarland, James W & McMahon, Patrick C, 1996. "Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920s," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, Jan.-Feb..
    11. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1995. "Predicting excess returns in financial markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-69, January.
    12. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    13. Huang, Roger D, 1989. " An Analysis of Intertemporal Pricing for Forward Foreign Exchange Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 183-194, March.
    14. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June.
    15. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John, 1992. "Investigating the correlation of unobserved expectations : Expected returns in equity and foreign exchange markets and other examples," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 217-253, November.
    16. Lewis, Karen K., 1991. "Should the holding period matter for the intertemporal consumption-based CAPM?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 365-389, December.
    17. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, July.
    18. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "The Time Variation of Expected Returns and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 397-408, October.
    20. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    21. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Melecky, 2008. "A Structural Investigation of Third‐Currency Shocks to Bilateral Exchange Rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 19-48, May.
    2. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W., 2010. "Forecasting the Yen/U.S. Dollar exchange rate: Empirical evidence from a capital enhanced relative PPP-based model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 476-484, October.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2020. "Predicting exchange rate returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    4. Kingston, Geoffrey & Melecky, Martin, 2007. "Currency preferences and the Australian dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-467, April.
    5. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    6. Axel Grossmann & Marc Simpson, 2011. "Predictability of the U.S. Dollar Index using a U.S. export and import price index-based relative PPP model," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 417-433, October.
    7. Carmen Gloria Silva, 2010. "Forward premium puzzle and term structure of interest rates: the case of New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 570, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Li, Xue & Liu, Yanghui & Li, Hanxu & Li, Jie, 2021. "Onshore spot and offshore forward markets for RMB: Evidence from the “8.11” exchange rate regime reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Azzam, Islam & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Foreign exchange market efficiency during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 717-730.
    10. Wang, Xi & Yang, Jiao-Hui & Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher, 2017. "Dynamic information spillovers in intraregionally-focused spot and forward currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 78-110.
    11. Melecky, M, 2007. "Currency Preferences in a Tri-Polar Model of Foreign Exchange," MPRA Paper 4186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. David Alan Peel & Pantelis Promponas, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    13. Jiang, Xue & Li, Sai-Ping & Mai, Yong & Tian, Tao, 2022. "Study of multinational currency co-movement and exchange rate stability base on network game," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).

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