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High volatility, thick tails and extreme value theory in value-at-risk estimation

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  • Gencay, Ramazan
  • Selcuk, Faruk
  • Ulugulyagci, Abdurrahman

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 337-356

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Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:33:y:2003:i:2:p:337-356

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554

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References

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  1. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  2. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 421.
  3. Danielsson, Jon & Morimoto, Yuji, 2000. "Forecasting Extreme Financial Risk: A Critical Analysis of Practical Methods for the Japanese Market," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 18(2), pages 25-48, December.
  4. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  5. Levich, Richard M., 1985. "Empirical studies of exchange rates: Price behavior, rate determination and market efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 979-1040 Elsevier.
  6. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
  7. Michel Dacorogna & Höskuldur Ari Hauksson & Thomas Domenig & Ulrich Müller & Gennady Samorodnitsky, 2001. "Multivariate extremes, aggregation and risk estimation," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 P2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  8. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
  9. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
  10. Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept.
  11. Koedijk, C.G. & Schafgans, M.M.A. & Vries, C.G. de, 1990. "The tail index of exchange rate returns," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108722, Tilburg University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kaijian He & Kin Keung Lai & Guocheng Xiang, 2012. "Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(4), pages 1018-1043, April.
  2. Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N. & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2010. "Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 515-526, November.
  3. Haque, Mahfuzul & Varela, Oscar & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2007. "Safety-first and extreme value bilateral U.S.-Mexican portfolio optimization around the peso crisis and NAFTA in 1994," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-469, July.
  4. Ana-Maria Gavril, 2009. "Exchange Rate Risk: Heads or Tails," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 35, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
  5. Marimoutou, Velayoudoum & Raggad, Bechir & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2009. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk: Application to oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 519-530, July.
  6. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2012. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3980, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. He, Kaijian & Wang, Lijun & Zou, Yingchao & Lai, Kin Keung, 2014. "Value at risk estimation with entropy-based wavelet analysis in exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 62-71.
  9. Mapa, Dennis S. & Suaiso, Oliver Q., 2009. "Measuring market risk using extreme value theory," MPRA Paper 21246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait, 2007. "Filtered Extreme Value Theory for Value-At-Risk Estimation," MPRA Paper 3302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2009. "Hybrid Historical Simulation VaR and ES: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 2820, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Sofiane Aboura, 2014. "When the U.S. Stock Market Becomes Extreme?," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 211-225, May.
  13. Lin, Jin-Guan & Huang, Chao & Zhuang, Qing-Yun & Zhu, Li-Ping, 2010. "Estimating generalized state density of near-extreme events and its applications in analyzing stock data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 13-20, August.
  14. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
  15. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Bechir Raggad & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2006. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk : Application to Oil Market," Working Papers halshs-00410746, HAL.
  16. Cifter, Atilla, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(12), pages 2356-2367.
  17. Zuoxiang, Peng & Miaomiao, Liu & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2010. "Asymptotic expansions for the location invariant moment-type estimator," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(5), pages 982-998.

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