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High volatility, thick tails and extreme value theory in value-at-risk estimation

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  • Gencay, Ramazan
  • Selcuk, Faruk
  • Ulugulyagci, Abdurrahman

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8N-49PRHS9-7/2/4348944e70ecfe471a935aef5bfe8f14
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 337-356

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Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:33:y:2003:i:2:p:337-356

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554

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References

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  1. Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 2001. "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 249-286, November.
  2. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  3. Danielsson, Jon & Morimoto, Yuji, 2000. "Forecasting Extreme Financial Risk: A Critical Analysis of Practical Methods for the Japanese Market," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 18(2), pages 25-48, December.
  4. H. A. Hauksson & M. Dacorogna & T. Domenig & U. Mller & G. Samorodnitsky, 2001. "Multivariate extremes, aggregation and risk estimation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 79-95.
  5. Koedijk, C.G. & Schafgans, M.M.A. & Vries, C.G. de, 1990. "The tail index of exchange rate returns," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108722, Tilburg University.
  6. Levich, Richard M., 1985. "Empirical studies of exchange rates: Price behavior, rate determination and market efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 979-1040 Elsevier.
  7. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 421.
  8. Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept.
  9. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  10. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
  11. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Haque, Mahfuzul & Varela, Oscar & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2007. "Safety-first and extreme value bilateral U.S.-Mexican portfolio optimization around the peso crisis and NAFTA in 1994," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-469, July.
  2. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
  4. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Bechir Raggad & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2006. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk : Application to Oil Market," Working Papers halshs-00410746, HAL.
  5. Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2012. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3980, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Marimoutou, Velayoudoum & Raggad, Bechir & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2009. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk: Application to oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 519-530, July.
  7. Jose Oliver Q. Suaiso & Dennis S. Mapa, 2009. "Measuring market risk using extreme value theory," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 91-121, December.
  8. Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N. & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2010. "Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 515-526, November.
  9. Kaijian He & Kin Keung Lai & Guocheng Xiang, 2012. "Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(4), pages 1018-1043, April.
  10. Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait, 2007. "Filtered Extreme Value Theory for Value-At-Risk Estimation," MPRA Paper 3302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Lin, Jin-Guan & Huang, Chao & Zhuang, Qing-Yun & Zhu, Li-Ping, 2010. "Estimating generalized state density of near-extreme events and its applications in analyzing stock data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 13-20, August.
  12. Cifter, Atilla, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(12), pages 2356-2367.
  13. Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2009. "Hybrid Historical Simulation VaR and ES: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 2820, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Ana-Maria Gavril, 2009. "Exchange Rate Risk: Heads or Tails," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 35, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.

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