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Extreme downside risk and expected stock returns

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  • Huang, Wei
  • Liu, Qianqiu
  • Ghon Rhee, S.
  • Wu, Feng
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    Abstract

    We propose a measure for extreme downside risk (EDR) to investigate whether bearing such a risk is rewarded by higher expected stock returns. By constructing an EDR proxy with the left tail index in the classical generalized extreme value distribution, we document a significantly positive EDR premium in cross-section of stock returns even after controlling for market, size, value, momentum, and liquidity effects. The EDR premium is more prominent among glamor stocks and when high market returns are expected. High-EDR stocks are generally characterized by high idiosyncratic risk, large downside beta, lower coskewness and cokurtosis, and high bankruptcy risk. The EDR premium persists after these characteristics are controlled for. Although Value at Risk (VaR) plays a significant role in explaining the EDR premium, it cannot completely subsume the EDR effect.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 1492-1502

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:5:p:1492-1502

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: Extreme downside risk; Generalized extreme value distribution; Idiosyncratic risk; Bankruptcy risk;

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    Cited by:
    1. Farruggio, Christian & Michalak, Tobias C. & Uhde, Andre, 2013. "The light and dark side of TARP," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2586-2604.
    2. DiTraglia, Francis J. & Gerlach, Jeffrey R., 2013. "Portfolio selection: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 305-323.
    3. Guillén, Montserrat & Sarabia, José María & Prieto, Faustino, 2013. "Simple risk measure calculations for sums of positive random variables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 273-280.
    4. Demirer, Rıza & Jategaonkar, Shrikant P., 2013. "The conditional relation between dispersion and return," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 125-134.
    5. Aman, Hiroyuki, 2013. "An analysis of the impact of media coverage on stock price crashes and jumps: Evidence from Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 22-38.

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