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Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns

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  • Jondeau, Eric
  • Rockinger, Michael

Abstract

In this paper, we use a database consisting of daily stock-returns for 20 countries to test for similarities between the left and right tail of returns as well as for cross-sectional differences. To mitigate the issue of dependency between stock returns, we estimate the distribution of extremes over subsamples of two months. We document a good fit of the model and show that the left and right tails of returns behave very similarly. Across countries, we find that extremes are located at different levels and that their dispersion varies. On the other hand, the tail index, characterizing large extreme realizations is found to be constant worldwide. Our results are not due to a lack of power. We also discuss the results from an economic point of view.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 559-581

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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:10:y:2003:i:5:p:559-581

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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References

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  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. de Haan, Laurens & Resnick, Sidney I. & Rootzén, Holger & de Vries, Casper G., 1989. "Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to arch processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-224, August.
  3. Quintos, Carmela & Fan, Zhenhong & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Structural Change Tests in Tail Behaviour and the Asian Crisis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 633-63, July.
  4. de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Koedijk, C.G. & Kool, C.J.M., 1992. "Tail estimates of East European exchange rates," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108733, Tilburg University.
  6. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in the Stock Markets of Transition Economies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 73-84, January.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  9. Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept.
  10. Hsing, Tailen, 1991. "Estimating the parameters of rare events," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 117-139, February.
  11. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-16, April.
  12. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
  13. Phillip Kearns & Adrian Pagan, 1997. "Estimating The Density Tail Index For Financial Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 171-175, May.
  14. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
  15. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
  16. Claessens, Stijn & Dasgupta, Susmita & Glen, Jack, 1995. "Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 131-51, January.
  17. Koedijk, C.G. & Schafgans, M.M.A. & Vries, C.G. de, 1990. "The tail index of exchange rate returns," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108722, Tilburg University.
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