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Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9|11

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  • S. T. M. Straetmans

    (Limburg Institute of Financial Economics (LIFE), Maastricht University, the Netherlands)

  • W. F. C. Verschoor

    (LIFE, Maastricht University and Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands)

  • C. C. P. Wolff

    (LIFE, Maastricht University, The Netherlands; and CEPR, London, UK)

Abstract

We apply extreme value analysis to US sectoral stock indices in order to assess whether tail risk measures like value-at-risk and extremal linkages were significantly altered by 9|11. We test whether semi-parametric quantile estimates of 'downside risk' and 'upward potential' have increased after 9|11. The same methodology allows one to estimate probabilities of joint booms and busts for pairs of sectoral indices or for a sectoral index and a market portfolio. The latter probabilities measure the sectoral response to macro shocks during periods of financial stress (so-called 'tail-βs'). Taking 9|11 as the sample midpoint we find that tail-βs often increase in a statistically and economically significant way. This might be due to perceived risk of new terrorist attacks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 17-42

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:1:p:17-42

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  1. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper de Vries, 2007. "Banking System Stability. A Cross-Atlantic Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 133-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
  2. Tolikas, Konstantinos, 2014. "Unexpected tails in risk measurement: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 476-493.
  3. Michel Beine & Pierre-Yves Preumont & Ariane Szafarz, 2006. "Sector diversification during crises: a European perspective," DULBEA Working Papers 06-07.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Chun-Pin Hsu & Chin-Wen Huang & Wan-Jiun Chiou, 2012. "Effectiveness of copula-extreme value theory in estimating value-at-risk: empirical evidence from Asian emerging markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 447-468, November.
  5. van Oordt, Maarten R.C. & Zhou, Chen, 2012. "The simple econometrics of tail dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 371-373.
  6. De Jonghe, O.G., 2009. "Back to Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability," Discussion Paper 2009-45 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper de Vries, 2007. "Banking System Stability. A Cross-Atlantic Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 133-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Amelia Pais & Philip A. Stork, 2013. "Short-Selling, Leverage and Systemic Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-186/IV/DSF68, Tinbergen Institute.
  9. Straetmans, Stefan & Candelon, Bertrand, 2013. "Long-term asset tail risks in developed and emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1832-1844.
  10. Toni Gravelle & Fuchun Li, 2011. "Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach," Working Papers 11-19, Bank of Canada.
  11. Carsten Bormann & Melanie Schienle & Julia Schaumburg, 2014. "A Test for the Portion of Bivariate Dependence in Multivariate Tail Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-024/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Gregory-Allen, Russell & Lu, Helen & Stork, Philip, 2012. "Asymmetric extreme tails and prospective utility of momentum returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 295-297.
  13. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Neumann, Sascha & Bostandzic, Denefa, 2014. "Systemic risk and bank consolidation: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 165-181.

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