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Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9|11

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Author Info
S. T. M. Straetmans (Limburg Institute of Financial Economics (LIFE), Maastricht University, the Netherlands)
W. F. C. Verschoor (LIFE, Maastricht University and Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands)
C. C. P. Wolff (LIFE, Maastricht University, The Netherlands; and CEPR, London, UK)

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Abstract

We apply extreme value analysis to US sectoral stock indices in order to assess whether tail risk measures like value-at-risk and extremal linkages were significantly altered by 9|11. We test whether semi-parametric quantile estimates of 'downside risk' and 'upward potential' have increased after 9|11. The same methodology allows one to estimate probabilities of joint booms and busts for pairs of sectoral indices or for a sectoral index and a market portfolio. The latter probabilities measure the sectoral response to macro shocks during periods of financial stress (so-called 'tail-βs'). Taking 9|11 as the sample midpoint we find that tail-βs often increase in a statistically and economically significant way. This might be due to perceived risk of new terrorist attacks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.973
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2008-v23.1/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 17-42
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:1:p:17-42

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper de Vries, 2005. "Banking system stability - a cross-Atlantic perspective," Working Paper Series 527, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ray C. Fair, 2002. "Events That Shook the Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 713-732, October. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jeffrey R. Brown & J. David Cummins & Christopher M. Lewis & Ran Wei, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Impact of Federal Terrorism Reinsurance," NBER Working Papers 10388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Quintos, Carmela & Fan, Zhenhong & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Structural Change Tests in Tail Behaviour and the Asian Crisis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 68(3), pages 633-63, July.
  8. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Drakos, Konstantinos, 2004. "Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 435-446, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Turan G. Bali, 2003. "An Extreme Value Approach to Estimating Volatility and Value at Risk," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(1), pages 83-108, January. [Downloadable!]
  12. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2004. "Policy Watch: Challenges for Terrorism Risk Insurance in the United States," NBER Working Papers 10870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bali, Turan G. & Neftci, Salih N., 2003. "Disturbing extremal behavior of spot rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 455-477, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Chen, Andrew H. & Siems, Thomas F., 2004. "The effects of terrorism on global capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 349-366, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michel Beine & Pierre-Yves Preumont & Ariane Szafarz, 2006. "Sector diversification during crises: A European perspective," Working Papers DULBEA 06-07.RS, Université libre de Bruxelles, Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2003. "September 11 and Stock Return Expectations of Individual Investors," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-17, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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