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The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns

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Author Info
Hols, Martien C A B
de Vries, Casper G

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Abstract

Several nonnested fat-tailed distributions have been advocated for modeling exchange rate reurns. Instead of directly estimating these nonnested distributions the authors investigate the extremal distribution of the returns. The advantage is that the parameter which characterizes the amount of tail fatness can be estimated without maintaining a specific distribution, and hence enables one to test hypotheses. The parameter of the limit law is estimated by employing nonparametric procedures based on order statistics. The appropriateness of these procedures is assessed. Given this estimate one can derive bounds on the returns for very low probabilities on an excess. Such information is useful in evaluating the volatility of exchange rates. Copyright 1991 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 6 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (July-Sept.)
Pages: 287-302
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:6:y:1991:i:3:p:287-302

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  3. Gus Garita & Chen Zhou, 2009. "Can Open Capital Markets Help Avoid Currency Crises?," DNB Working Papers 205, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 1999. "The Tail Behavior of Sotck Returns: Emerging Versus Mature Markets," Documents de Travail 66, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Cotter, John, 2000. "Volatility and the Euro: an Irish perspective," MPRA Paper 3535, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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