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The Tail Behavior of Sotck Returns: Emerging Versus Mature Markets

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Author Info
Jondeau, E.
Rockinger, M.
Abstract

In the following paper the authors start with a review of theoretical elements of extreme value theory (evt). In the empirical section of this study they consider five mature markets, nine Asian, six Eastern European, and seven Latin American emerging markets. The tail-behavior of returns is found to be compatible with the existence of up to the third moment but not beyond. Using a subsample of countries they also demonstrate the limitations of evt. Finally they show that little can be learned from 19th century US data about presently emerging markets' tail behavior.

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File URL: http://www.banque-france.fr/gb/publications/telechar/ner/ner66.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Documents de Travail with number 66.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:66

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Related research
Keywords: Extreme value theory ; Generalized Pareto distribution ; Stock-market returns.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment

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  1. Shields, Kalvinder K, 1997. "Stock Return Volatility on Emerging Eastern European Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(0), pages 118-38, Supplemen.
  2. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394. [Downloadable!]
  4. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-80, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Vries, Caspar de & Danielsson, Jon, 1996. "Tail Index and Quantile Estimation with Very High Frequency Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Hall, Peter, 1990. "Using the bootstrap to estimate mean squared error and select smoothing parameter in nonparametric problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 177-203, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420. [Downloadable!]
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