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The Tail Behavior of Sotck Returns: Emerging Versus Mature Markets

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Author Info

  • Jondeau, E.
  • Rockinger, M.

Abstract

In the following paper the authors start with a review of theoretical elements of extreme value theory (evt). In the empirical section of this study they consider five mature markets, nine Asian, six Eastern European, and seven Latin American emerging markets. The tail-behavior of returns is found to be compatible with the existence of up to the third moment but not beyond. Using a subsample of countries they also demonstrate the limitations of evt. Finally they show that little can be learned from 19th century US data about presently emerging markets' tail behavior.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 66.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:66

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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Related research

Keywords: Extreme value theory ; Generalized Pareto distribution ; Stock-market returns.;

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References

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  1. Kon, Stanley J, 1984. " Models of Stock Returns-A Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 147-65, March.
  2. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  5. Hall, Peter, 1990. "Using the bootstrap to estimate mean squared error and select smoothing parameter in nonparametric problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 177-203, February.
  6. Loretan, Mico & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1994. "Testing the covariance stationarity of heavy-tailed time series: An overview of the theory with applications to several financial datasets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 211-248, January.
  7. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
  8. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420.
  9. Koedijk, C.G. & Schafgans, M.M.A. & Vries, C.G. de, 1990. "The tail index of exchange rate returns," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108722, Tilburg University.
  10. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-80, April.
  11. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
  12. de Haan, Laurens & Resnick, Sidney I. & Rootzén, Holger & de Vries, Casper G., 1989. "Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to arch processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-224, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Manfred Gilli & Evis këllezi, 2006. "An Application of Extreme Value Theory for Measuring Financial Risk," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 207-228, May.
  2. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Donald J. Mathieson & James Y. Yao, 2004. "Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 8.
  3. Niklas Wagner & Terry Marsh, 2004. "Tail index estimation in small smaples Simulation results for independent and ARCH-type financial return models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 545-561, October.
  4. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Economics Working Papers 2008,08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  5. Allen, David E. & Singh, Abhay K. & Powell, Robert J., 2013. "EVT and tail-risk modelling: Evidence from market indices and volatility series," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 355-369.
  6. Singh, Abhay K. & Allen, David E. & Robert, Powell J., 2013. "Extreme market risk and extreme value theory," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 310-328.
  7. Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos & Stavros Degiannakis, 2007. "A robust VaR model under different time periods and weighting schemes," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 187-201, February.
  8. Wagner, Niklas & Marsh, Terry A., 2005. "Measuring tail thickness under GARCH and an application to extreme exchange rate changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 165-185, January.
  9. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.

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