IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/anr/reveco/v4y2012p111-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Endogenous Extreme Events and the Dual Role of Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Jon Danielsson

    ( Department of Finance, London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE London, United Kingdom)

  • Hyun Song Shin

    ( Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08540)

  • Jean-Pierre Zigrand

    ( Department of Finance, London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE London, United Kingdom)

Abstract

Extreme events in financial markets are often generated by shocks that come from within the system, rather than those that arrive from outside the system. The combination of risk-sensitive behavior rules and the coordinated actions implied by market-to-market accounting can result in outcome distributions with fat tails, even if the fundamental shocks are Gaussian. We illustrate such endogenous extreme events through the pricing density resulting from dynamic hedging of options and the flash crash of May 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon Danielsson & Hyun Song Shin & Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 2012. "Endogenous Extreme Events and the Dual Role of Prices," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 111-129, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:4:y:2012:p:111-129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-080511-110930
    Download Restriction: Full text downloads are only available to subscribers. Visit the abstract page for more information.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio & Burnside, Craig & Kleshchelski, Isaac, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    3. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
    4. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    5. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    6. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    7. Eckhard Platen & Martin Schweizer, 1998. "On Feedback Effects from Hedging Derivatives," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 67-84, January.
    8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    9. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    10. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818728.
    11. Martin Eichenbaum & Craig Burnside & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 333-338, May.
    12. Rüdiger Frey & Alexander Stremme, 1997. "Market Volatility and Feedback Effects from Dynamic Hedging," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 351-374, October.
    13. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    14. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "Subjective Expectations and Asset-Return Puzzles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1102-1130, September.
    16. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
    18. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524131.
    19. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818735.
    20. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524124.
    21. Xiong, Wei, 2001. "Convergence trading with wealth effects: an amplification mechanism in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 247-292, November.
    22. repec:oup:rfinst:v:25:y::i:12:p:3457-3489 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    24. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    25. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    26. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    27. N/A, 1996. "Events," Psychology and Developing Societies, , vol. 8(2), pages 287-288, September.
    28. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
    29. Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Risk and Liquidity," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199546367.
    30. Mathias Dewatripont & Lars Peter Hansen & Stephen Turnovsky, 2003. "Advances in economics and econometrics :theory and applications," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9557, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    31. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818742.
    32. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kim Christensen & Roel Oomen & Roberto Renò, 2016. "The Drift Burst Hypothesis," CREATES Research Papers 2016-28, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Piero Mazzarisi & Fabrizio Lillo & Stefano Marmi, 2018. "When panic makes you blind: a chaotic route to systemic risk," Papers 1805.00785, arXiv.org.
    3. Marco Fruzzetti & Giulio Gariano & Gerardo Palazzo & Antonio Scalia, 2021. "From SMP to PEPP: a further look at the risk endogeneity of the Central Bank," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 11, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    4. Pagnottoni, Paolo & Spelta, Alessandro & Pecora, Nicolò & Flori, Andrea & Pammolli, Fabio, 2021. "Financial earthquakes: SARS-CoV-2 news shock propagation in stock and sovereign bond markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    5. Mazzarisi, Piero & Lillo, Fabrizio & Marmi, Stefano, 2019. "When panic makes you blind: A chaotic route to systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 176-199.
    6. Cai, Mei-Ling & Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Li, Sai-Ping & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei & Yang, Ming-Yuan & Ren, Fei, 2022. "New volatility evolution model after extreme events," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Heckens, Anton J. & Guhr, Thomas, 2022. "New collectivity measures for financial covariances and correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    8. Mei-Ling Cai & Zhang-HangJian Chen & Sai-Ping Li & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang & Ming-Yuan Yang & Fei Ren, 2022. "New volatility evolution model after extreme events," Papers 2201.03213, arXiv.org.
    9. Danielsson, Jon & Macrae, Robert & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2016. "Why macropru can end up being procyclical," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 70711, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Bluwstein, Kristina & Yung, Julieta, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England working papers 806, Bank of England.
    11. Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2014. "Systems and systemic risk in finance and economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61220, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Christopher D. Clack & Elias Court & Dmitrijs Zaparanuks, 2020. "Dynamic Coupling and Market Instability," Papers 2005.13621, arXiv.org.
    13. Ben Hambly & Andreas Søjmark, 2019. "An SPDE model for systemic risk with endogenous contagion," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 535-594, July.
    14. Steffen, Viktoria, 2023. "A literature review on extreme price movements with reversal," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles D Brummitt & Rajiv Sethi & Duncan J Watts, 2014. "Inside Money, Procyclical Leverage, and Banking Catastrophes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-12, August.
    2. Ahnert, Toni & Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Chapman, James, 2015. "Safe, or not safe? Covered bonds and Bank Fragility," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112875, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. David Aikman & Andrew G. Haldane & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2015. "Curbing the Credit Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1072-1109, June.
    4. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    5. Wang, F. Albert, 2022. "Double leverage cycle, interest rate, and financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Chabakauri, Georgy & Han, Brandon Yueyang, 2020. "Collateral constraints and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 754-776.
    7. John Geanakoplos & Robert Axtell & J. Doyne Farmer & Peter Howitt & Benjamin Conlee & Jonathan Goldstein & Matthew Hendrey & Nathan M. Palmer & Chun-Yi Yang, 2012. "Getting at Systemic Risk via an Agent-Based Model of the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 53-58, May.
    8. Bachmann, Manuel, 2018. "Market Illiquidity, Credit Freezes and Endogenous Funding Constraints," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 255, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    9. Augusto de la Torre & Alain Ize, 2016. "The Conceptual Foundations of Macroprudential Policy: A Roadmap," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 333-352, December.
    10. Assaf Razin & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "Review Of Theories of Financial Crises," 2012 Meeting Papers 214, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Manuel Bachmann, 2018. "Market Illiquidity, Credit Freezes and Endogenous Funding Constraints," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp255, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    12. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    13. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2016. "Financial Innovation, Collateral, and Investment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 242-284, January.
    14. Liu, Xuewen & Mello, Antonio S., 2011. "The fragile capital structure of hedge funds and the limits to arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 491-506.
    15. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity Black Holes," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18.
    16. Christian Laux & Thomas Rauter, 2017. "Procyclicality of U.S. Bank Leverage," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 237-273, May.
    17. Philipp Koenig & David Pothier, 2016. "Information Acquisition and Liquidity Dry-Ups," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    18. Eva Lütkebohmert & Daniel Oeltz & Yajun Xiao, 2017. "Endogenous Credit Spreads and Optimal Debt Financing Structure in the Presence of Liquidity Risk," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(1), pages 55-86, January.
    19. Alan Moreira & Alexi Savov, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking," NBER Working Papers 20335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. de Frutos, M. Ángeles & Manzano, Carolina, 2014. "Market transparency, market quality, and sunshine trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 174-198.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking crises; financial intermediation; value-at-risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:4:y:2012:p:111-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: http://www.annualreviews.org (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.annualreviews.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.