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New Extreme-Value Dependence Measures and Finance Applications

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  • Rockinger, Michael
  • Poon, Ser-Huang
  • Tawn, Jonathan

Abstract

In the finance literature, cross-sectional dependence in extreme returns of risky assets is often modelled implicitly assuming an asymptotically dependent structure. If the true dependence structure is asymptotically independent then existing finance models will lead to over-estimation of the risk of simultaneous extreme events. We provide simple techniques for deciding between these dependence classes and for quantifying the degree of dependence in each class. Examples based on daily stock market returns show that there is strong evidence in favour of asymptotically independent models for dependence in extremal stock market returns, and that most of the extremal dependence is due to heteroskedasticity in stock returns processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Rockinger, Michael & Poon, Ser-Huang & Tawn, Jonathan, 2001. "New Extreme-Value Dependence Measures and Finance Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 2762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2762
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    Cited by:

    1. Viviana Fernández, 2003. "Extreme Value Theory: Value at Risk and Returns Dependence Around the World," Documentos de Trabajo 161, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    2. Geluk, J.L. & De Vries, C.G., 2006. "Weighted sums of subexponential random variables and asymptotic dependence between returns on reinsurance equities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 39-56, February.
    3. Viviana Fernandez, 2004. "Extremal Dependence In Exchange Rate Markets," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 13, Econometric Society.
    4. Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2004. "Fundamentals and joint currency crises," Working Paper Series 324, European Central Bank.
    5. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Gaussian Tests of "Extremal White Noise" for Dependent, Heterogeneous, Heavy Tailed Time Series with an Application," Econometrics 0411014, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2005.
    6. Sebastian Schich, 2004. "European stock market dependencies when price changes are unusually large," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 165-177.
    7. Fukuhara, Masahiro & Saruwatari, Yasufumi, 2003. "An Analysis of Contagion in Emerging Currency Markets Using Multivariate Extreme Value Theory," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 113-131, August.
    8. David Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 2003. "Wealth Accumulation, Credit Card Borrowing, and Consuption-Income Comovement," Documentos de Trabajo 166, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    9. K. Minderhoud, 2006. "Systemic Risk in the Dutch Financial Sector," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 177-195, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymptotic independence; Extreme value theory; Hill's estimator; Tail index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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