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New Extreme-Value Dependence Measures and Finance Applications

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  • Poon, Ser-Huang
  • Rockinger, Michael
  • Tawn, Jonathan

Abstract

In the finance literature, cross-sectional dependence in extreme returns of risky assets is often modelled implicitly assuming an asymptotically dependent structure. If the true dependence structure is asymptotically independent then existing finance models will lead to over-estimation of the risk of simultaneous extreme events. We provide simple techniques for deciding between these dependence classes and for quantifying the degree of dependence in each class. Examples based on daily stock market returns show that there is strong evidence in favour of asymptotically independent models for dependence in extremal stock market returns, and that most of the extremal dependence is due to heteroskedasticity in stock returns processes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2762.

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Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2762

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Keywords: Asymptotic Independence; Extreme Value Theory; Hill's Estimator; Tail Index;

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References

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  1. repec:fth:banfra:79 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Starica, Catalin, 1999. "Multivariate extremes for models with constant conditional correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 515-553, December.
  3. Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Papers 71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  4. ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2000. "Entropy densities," Les Cahiers de Recherche 709, HEC Paris.
  5. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
  6. Longin, François & Solnik, Bruno H, 2000. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Rockinger, Michael & Jondeau, Eric, 2002. "Entropy densities with an application to autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 119-142, January.
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-081, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  9. Martens, Martin & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2001. "Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1805-1827, October.
  10. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April.
  11. Dennis Jansen & Casper de Vries, 1988. "On the frequency of large stock returns: putting booms and busts into perspective," Working Papers 1989-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
  13. P. Bortot & S. Coles & J. Tawn, 2000. "The multivariate Gaussian tail model: an application to oceanographic data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 49(1), pages 31-049.
  14. Terry A. Marsh & Niklas Wagner, 2004. "Return-Volume Dependence and Extremes in International Equity Markets," Finance 0401007, EconWPA.
  15. Longin, Francois M., 2000. "From value at risk to stress testing: The extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1097-1130, July.
  16. LONGIN, François & SOLNIK, Bruno, 2000. "Extreme correlation of international equity markets," Les Cahiers de Recherche 705, HEC Paris.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fukuhara, Masahiro & Saruwatari, Yasufumi, 2003. "An Analysis of Contagion in Emerging Currency Markets Using Multivariate Extreme Value Theory," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 113-131, August.
  2. Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2004. "Fundamentals and joint currency crises," Working Paper Series 0324, European Central Bank.
  3. David Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 2003. "Wealth Accumulation, Credit Card Borrowing, and Consuption-Income Comovement," Documentos de Trabajo 166, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  4. Viviana Fernández, 2003. "Extreme Value Theory: Value at Risk and Returns Dependence Around the World," Documentos de Trabajo 161, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  5. Sebastian Schich, 2004. "European stock market dependencies when price changes are unusually large," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 165-177.
  6. C.G. de vries, 2004. "The simple economics of bank fragility," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 755, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  7. K. Minderhoud, 2006. "Systemic Risk in the Dutch Financial Sector," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 177-195, June.
  8. Viviana Fernandez, 2004. "Extremal Dependence In Exchange Rate Markets," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 13, Econometric Society.
  9. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Gaussian Tests of "Extremal White Noise" for Dependent, Heterogeneous, Heavy Tailed Time Series with an Application," Econometrics 0411014, EconWPA, revised 09 Dec 2004.

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