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New Extreme-Value Dependence Measures and Finance Applications

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Author Info
Poon, Ser-Huang
Rockinger, Michael
Tawn, Jonathan

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Abstract

In the finance literature, cross-sectional dependence in extreme returns of risky assets is often modelled implicitly assuming an asymptotically dependent structure. If the true dependence structure is asymptotically independent then existing finance models will lead to over-estimation of the risk of simultaneous extreme events. We provide simple techniques for deciding between these dependence classes and for quantifying the degree of dependence in each class. Examples based on daily stock market returns show that there is strong evidence in favour of asymptotically independent models for dependence in extremal stock market returns, and that most of the extremal dependence is due to heteroskedasticity in stock returns processes.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2762.

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Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2762

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Related research
Keywords: Asymptotic Independence; Extreme Value Theory; Hill's Estimator; Tail Index;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Dennis Jansen & Casper de Vries, 1988. "On the frequency of large stock returns: putting booms and busts into perspective," Working Papers 1989-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-081, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    Other versions:
  3. P. Bortot & S. Coles & J. Tawn, 2000. "The multivariate Gaussian tail model: an application to oceanographic data," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 49(1), pages 31-049. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December. [Downloadable!]
  5. de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Terry A. Marsh & Niklas Wagner, 2004. "Return-Volume Dependence and Extremes in International Equity Markets," Finance 0401007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Starica, Catalin, 1999. "Multivariate extremes for models with constant conditional correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 515-553, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Vries, Caspar de & Danielsson, Jon, 1996. "Tail Index and Quantile Estimation with Very High Frequency Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich.
  9. LONGIN, François & SOLNIK, Bruno, 2000. "Extreme correlation of international equity markets," Les Cahiers de Recherche 705, HEC Paris. [Downloadable!]
  10. Longin, François & Solnik, Bruno H, 2000. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "A Test for Multivariate Normality in Stock Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(2), pages 295-321, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Martens, Martin & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2001. "Returns synchronization and daily correlation dynamics between international stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1805-1827, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Longin, Francois M., 2000. "From value at risk to stress testing: The extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1097-1130, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Rockinger, M. & Jondeau, E., 2001. "Entropy Densities: with an Application to Autoregressive Conditional Skewness and Kurtosis," Documents de Travail 79, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Viviana Fernández, 2003. "Extreme Value Theory: Value at Risk and Returns Dependence Around the World," Documentos de Trabajo 161, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Gaussian Tests of "Extremal White Noise" for Dependent, Heterogeneous, Heavy Tailed Time Series with an Application," Econometrics 0411014, EconWPA, revised 09 Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sebastian Schich, 2004. "European stock market dependencies when price changes are unusually large," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 165-177, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. David Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 2003. "Wealth Accumulation, Credit Card Borrowing, and Consuption-Income Comovement," Documentos de Trabajo 166, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. J.L. Geluk & C.G. de Vries, 2004. "Weighted Sums of Subexponential Random Variables and Asymptotic Dependence between Returns on Reinsurance Equities," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-102/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  6. Viviana Fernandez, 2004. "Extremal Dependence In Exchange Rate Markets," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 13, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  7. C.G. de vries, 2004. "The simple economics of bank fragility," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 755, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Caspar G. de Vries, 2004. "Fundamentals and joint currency crises," Working Paper Series 324, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Niklas Wagner & Terry Marsh, 2000. "Return-Volume Dependence and Extremes in International Equity Markets," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series 1002, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. K. Minderhoud, 2006. "Systemic Risk in the Dutch Financial Sector," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 177-195, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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