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A Note of Caution on Shadow Rate Estimates

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. André, Christophe & Caraiani, Petre & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Fiscal policy and stock markets at the effective lower bound," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  2. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2025. "Short-run and long-run consequences of unconventional monetary policy in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  3. Zhong, Changbiao & Xie, Lijuan & Shi, Yu & Xu, Xiangyun, 2023. "Macro-prudential policy, its alignment with monetary policy and house price growth: A cross-country study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 51-62.
  4. Karl-Friedrich Israel & Tim Florian Sepp & Nils Sonnenberg, 2023. "The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Stock Markets and Household Incomes in Japan," Post-Print halshs-04024219, HAL.
  5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5srl83htc08lnqmtptsrb72rt9 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Fukunaga, Ichiro & Kido, Yosuke & Suita, Kotaro, 2025. "Japan's inflation under global inflation synchronization," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  7. Bennani, Hamza & Burgard, Jan Pablo & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "The Financial Accelerator in the Euro Area: New Evidence Using a Mixture VAR Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(7), pages 1893-1931, October.
  8. Vincenzo Cuciniello & Giuseppe Ferrero & Elisa Guglielminetti & Alessandro Lin, 2025. "Data dependency, inflation projections and interest rate decisions," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 930, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Jérôme Creel & Mehdi El Herradi, 2024. "Income inequality and monetary policy in the euro area," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 332-355, January.
  10. Frantisek Brazdik & Karel Musil & Tomas Pokorny & Tomas Sestorad & Jaromir Tonner & Jan Zacek, 2025. "Upgrading the Czech National Bank's Core Forecasting Model g3+," Working Papers 2025/7, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
  11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Adeabah, David & Sahay, Vinita S., 2024. "Time-varying relationship between international monetary policy and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  12. Owusu Amponsah, Dan & Abdullah, Mohammad & Joel Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel & Yindenaba Abor, Joshua & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2025. "Multiscale tail risk integration between safe-haven assets and Africa’s emerging equity market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
  13. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  14. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2023. "Uncertainty And Monetary Policy During The Great Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 577-606, May.
  15. van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Investor sentiment and multi-scale positive and negative stock market bubbles in a panel of G7 countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  16. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark Wohar & David Roubaud & Hasan Gungor, 2024. "Global liquidity effect of quantitative easing on emerging markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2449-2461, December.
  17. Karl-Friedrich Israel & Tim Florian Sepp & Nils Sonnenberg, 2022. "Japanese monetary policy and household saving," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(21), pages 2373-2389, May.
  18. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2025. "Energy supply shocks’ nonlinearities on output and prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
  19. Liosi, Konstantina, 2023. "The sources of economic uncertainty: Evidence from eurozone markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  20. Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta & Xin Sheng & Joshua Nielsen, 2025. "Predicting Multi-Scale Positive and Negative Stock Market Bubbles in a Panel of G7 Countries: The Role of Oil Price Uncertainty," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, January.
  21. Chiang, Shu-hen & Suardi, Sandy & Chen, Chien-Fu, 2025. "Navigating shifting tides: Time-varying monetary policy spillovers in core-peripheral housing markets in the Euro area," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  22. Andreasen, Martin Møller & Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2021. "Why does risk matter more in recessions than in expansions?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2021, Bank of Finland.
  23. Fabrice Dabiré, 2022. "Forward guidance and the exchange rate: A theoretical sign restricted VAR analysis," Cahiers de recherche 22-03, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
  24. Ma, Chaoqun & Tian, Yonggang & Hsiao, Shisong & Deng, Liurui, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and Bitcoin prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  25. Andreeva, Desislava & Coman, Andra & Everett, Mary & Froemel, Maren & Ho, Kelvin & Lloyd, Simon & Meunier, Baptiste & Pedrono, Justine & Reinhardt, Dennis & Wong, Andrew & Wong, Eric & Żochowski, Dawi, 2025. "Negative rates, monetary policy transmission and cross-border lending via international financial centers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  26. Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2021. "Monetary transmission in money markets: The not-so-elusive missing piece of the puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  27. Marcelo A. T. Aragão & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2023. "A Little Less Uncertain about the Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity," Working Papers Series 585, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  28. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  29. Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenzo Mori, 2025. "Uncertainty, Skewness, and the Business Cycle Through the MIDAS Lens," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 89-107, January.
  30. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Climate Policy Uncertainty and Financial Stress: Evidence for China," Working Papers 202428, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  31. Shodipe Oladimeji T. & Shobande Olatunji Abdul, 2021. "Monetary Policy Dynamics in the United States," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 14-30, January.
  32. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Shadow rates as a measure of the monetary policy stance: Some international evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(5), pages 399-422, November.
  33. Israel, Karl-Friedrich & Sepp, Tim Florian & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2023. "The effects of unconventional monetary policy on stock markets and household incomes in Japan," Working Papers 177, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
  34. Dossani, Asad, 2024. "Monetary policy and currency variance risk premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  35. Oguzhan Cepni & Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "The time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the co-movement of regional housing prices of the United Kingdom," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22, December.
  36. Ruipeng Liu & Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2021. "Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Rate Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility: A Forecasting Perspective," Working Papers 202178, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  37. Alfred A. Haug & India Power, 2022. "Government Spending Multipliers in Times of Tight and Loose Monetary Policy in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(322), pages 249-270, September.
  38. Mansur, Alfan, 2023. "Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  39. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2022. "Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  40. Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch & Dennis Umlandt, 2023. "(Almost) Recursive Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with Economic Parameter Restrictions," Working Paper Series 2023-01, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
  41. Fava, Santino Del & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rognone, Lavinia, 2024. "Forecasting international financial stress: The role of climate risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  42. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  43. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2025. "Unraveling Financial Fragility of Global Markets Using Machine Learning," Working Papers 202511, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  44. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abdullah, Mohammad & Ji, Qiang & Sulong, Zunaidah, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and ESG performance across energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  45. Blampied, Nicolás & Mahadeo, Scott Mark Romeo, 2023. "Uncertainties under monetary tightening and easing shocks and different market states," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  46. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Kate McKinnon & Vance L Martin, 2022. "Measuring Global Interest Rate Comovements with Implications for Monetary Policy Interdependence," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2022-07, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Dec 2022.
  47. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Abdullah, Mohammad & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and energy market tail risk forecasting: An explainable machine learning approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  48. Schuler, Tobias & Sun, Yiqiao, 2022. "The current account and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2696, European Central Bank.
  49. Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch & Dennis Umlandt, 2023. "(Almost) Recursive Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with Economic Parameter Restrictions," CESifo Working Paper Series 10219, CESifo.
  50. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2025. "Forecasting with shadow rate VARs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(3), pages 795-822, July.
  51. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  52. Caraiani, Petre & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Nielsen, Joshua, 2023. "Monetary policy and bubbles in G7 economies using a panel VAR approach: Implications for sustainable development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 133-155.
  53. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic, policy responses and stock markets in the G20," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 77-90.
  54. James Dean & Scott Schuh, 2026. "From Conventional to Unconventional Monetary Policy: Is the Taylor Rule an Adequate Representation in Macro Models?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 1-48, February.
  55. Kim, Soyoung & Mehrotra, Aaron & Shim, Seri, 2025. "Governance arrangements and the use of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  56. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
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