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Nobel Lecture: Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Yashiv, Eran & Perets, Gadi, 2018. "Lie Symmetries and Essential Restrictions in Economic Optimization," CEPR Discussion Papers 12611, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2022. "Structured ambiguity and model misspecification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  3. Thomas J. Sargent, 2015. "Robert E. Lucas Jr.'s Collected Papers on Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(1), pages 43-64, March.
  4. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 623-649, October.
  5. Xiaohong Chen & Andres Santos, 2018. "Overidentification in Regular Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1771-1817, September.
  6. Anisha Ghosh & Christian Julliard & Alex P. Taylor, 2017. "What Is the Consumption-CAPM Missing? An Information-Theoretic Framework for the Analysis of Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 442-504.
  7. Ilke AYDOGAN & Loïc BERGER & Valentina BOSETTI & Ning LIU, 2022. "Three layers of uncertainty," Working Papers 2022-iRisk-01, IESEG School of Management.
  8. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Lars Peter Hansen & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Making Decisions under Model Misspecification," Papers 2008.01071, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
  9. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Berger, Loïc & Bosetti, Valentina, 2020. "Characterizing ambiguity attitudes using model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 621-637.
  11. Shahid Raza & Sun Baiqing & Imtiaz Hussain & Pwint Kay-Khine, 2023. "Do good and bad news affect the day of the week effect? An analysis of the KSE-100 Index," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-22, July.
  12. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Ning Liu, 2022. "Three layers of uncertainty," Working Papers hal-03031751, HAL.
  13. Kahn, Matthew E., 2015. "Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Economics," Strategic Behavior and the Environment, now publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, June.
  14. Ilke AYDOGAN & Loïc BERGER & Valentina BOSETTI, 2023. "Unraveling Ambiguity Aversion," Working Papers 2023-iRisk-01, IESEG School of Management.
  15. repec:hal:journl:hal-03031751 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Dave, Chetan & Malik, Samreen, 2017. "A tale of fat tails," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 293-317.
  17. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2020. "Risk, Ambiguity, And The Value Of Diversification," Working Papers hal-02910906, HAL.
  18. Xiaohong Chen & Lars Peter Hansen & Peter G. Hansen, 2020. "Robust identification of investor beliefs," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(52), pages 33130-33140, December.
  19. Xiaohong Chen & Yin Jia Jeff Qiu, 2016. "Methods for Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regressions with Endogeneity: A Gentle Guide," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 259-290, October.
  20. Hu Yingyao & Shum Matthew & Tan Wei & Xiao Ruli, 2017. "A Simple Estimator for Dynamic Models with Serially Correlated Unobservables," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, January.
  21. Gaurab Aryal & Dong-Hyuk Kim, 2013. "Emprical Relevance of Ambiguity in First Price Auction Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2013-607, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  22. Ghosh, Anisha & Julliard, Christian & Taylor, Alex, 2016. "An information based one-factor asset pricing model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118978, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  23. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.
  24. Loïc Berger & Nicolas Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Itzhak Gilboa & Lars Peter Hansen & Christopher Jarvis & Massimo Marinacci & Richard D. Smith, 2020. "Uncertainty and Decision-Making During a Crisis: How to Make Policy Decisions in the COVID-19 Context?," Working Papers 2020-95, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  25. Qiu, Chen & Otsu, Taisuke, 2022. "Information theoretic approach to high dimensional multiplicative models: stochastic discount factor and treatment effect," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110494, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  26. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Xiaoyu Cheng, 2022. "Robust Data-Driven Decisions Under Model Uncertainty," Papers 2205.04573, arXiv.org.
  28. Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2021. "Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 817-842, July.
  29. Junyi Chai & Zhiquan Weng & Wenbin Liu, 2021. "Behavioral Decision Making in Normative and Descriptive Views: A Critical Review of Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.
  30. Borovicka, J. & Hansen, L.P., 2016. "Term Structure of Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1641-1696, Elsevier.
  31. Ignacio Escañuela ROMANA, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic Cycle Theory," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 638-658, December.
  32. Angelini, Giovanni, 2020. "Bootstrap lag selection in DSGE models with expectations correction," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 38-48.
  33. William J. Luther, 2022. "Regulatory ambiguity in the market for bitcoin," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, March.
  34. Trojani, Fabio & Wiehenkamp, Christian & Wrampelmeyer, Jan, 2014. "Ambiguity and Reality," Working Papers on Finance 1418, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  35. Klaus Abberger & Andreas Dibiasi & Michael Siegenthaler & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans: Evidence from the Unexpected Acceptance of a Far-Reaching Referendum in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 5887, CESifo.
  36. Loic Berger, 2021. "What Is Partial Ambiguity?," Working Papers 2021-iRisk-01, IESEG School of Management.
  37. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Vincent Théroude, 2023. "More Ambiguous or More Complex? An Investigation of Individual Preferences under Uncertainty," Working Papers of BETA 2023-10, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  38. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-04071242 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Massimo Marinacci, 2015. "Model Uncertainty," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1022-1100, December.
  40. Xueting Yu & Yuhan Zhu & Guangming Lv, 2020. "Analysis of the Impact of China’s GDP Data Revision on Monetary Policy from the Perspective of Uncertainty," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(6), pages 1251-1274, May.
  41. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Macro-Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 945-985.
  42. Hill, Brian, 2020. "Dynamic consistency and ambiguity: A reappraisal," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 289-310.
  43. Nieto, Belén & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2022. "The risk aversion and uncertainty channels between finance and macroeconomics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  44. Keshab Bhattarai, 2015. "Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 178-195, February.
  45. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2021. "Risk, ambiguity, and the value of diversification," Post-Print hal-02910906, HAL.
  46. Raman Uppal & Harjoat Bhamra, 2016. "Do Individual Behavioral Biases Affect Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1358, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  47. Ilke Aydogan & Loic Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Ning Liu, 2018. "Three layers of uncertainty: an experiment," Working Papers 623, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  48. Bingyan Han, 2022. "Distributionally robust risk evaluation with a causality constraint and structural information," Papers 2203.10571, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
  49. Kazuto Sasai & Yukio-Pegio Gunji & Tetsuo Kinoshita, 2017. "Intermittent Behavior Induced By Asynchronous Interactions In A Continuous Double Auction Model," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(02n03), pages 1-21, March.
  50. Loic Berger & Valentina Bosetti, 2016. "Ellsberg Re-revisited: An Experiment Disentangling Model Uncertainty and Risk Aversion," Working Papers 2016.37, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  51. Ilke AYDOGAN & Loïc BERGER & Vincent THEROUDE, 2023. "More Ambiguous or More Complex? An Investigation of Individual Preferences under Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023-iRisk-02, IESEG School of Management.
  52. Tak Kuen Siu, 2023. "Bayesian nonlinear expectation for time series modelling and its application to Bitcoin," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 505-537, January.
  53. Loïc Berger & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2021. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Value of Diversification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1639-1647, March.
  54. Chen Qiu & Taisuke Otsu, 2022. "Information theoretic approach to high‐dimensional multiplicative models: Stochastic discount factor and treatment effect," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 63-94, January.
  55. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Valentina Bosetti, 2023. "Unraveling Ambiguity Aversion," Post-Print hal-04370668, HAL.
  56. Loïc Berger, 2023. "A Randomness Device to Create the Conditions of Uncertainty," Working Papers hal-04071230, HAL.
  57. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
  58. Zhu, Wenge, 2017. "Wanting robustness in insurance: A model of catastrophe risk pricing and its empirical test," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 14-23.
  59. Ponta, Linda & Murialdo, Pietro & Carbone, Anna, 2021. "Information measure for long-range correlated time series: Quantifying horizon dependence in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
  60. Zhiguo He & Maggie Hu & Zhenping Wang & Vincent Yao, 2020. "Valuation of Long-Term Property Rights under Political Uncertainty," Working Papers 2020-105, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  61. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2017. "Model Averaging and Persistent Disagreement," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(3), pages 279-294.
  62. Loic BERGER & Nicolas BERGER & Valentina BOSETTI & Itzhak GILBOA & Lars Peter HANSEN & Christopher JARVIS & Massimo MARINACCI & Richard D. Smith, 2020. "Rational policymaking during a pandemic," Working Papers 2020-iRisk-02, IESEG School of Management.
  63. Zappia, Carlo, 2021. "Leonard Savage, The Ellsberg Paradox, And The Debate On Subjective Probabilities: Evidence From The Archives," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 169-192, June.
  64. Djeutem Edouard & Nguimkeu Pierre, 2020. "Robust learning in the foreign exchange market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, January.
  65. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Valentina Bosetti, 2023. "Unraveling Ambiguity Aversion," Post-Print hal-04071242, HAL.
  66. Klaus Abberger & Andreas Dibiasi & Michael Siegenthaler & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans," KOF Working papers 16-406, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  67. Zhiguo He & Maggie Rong Hu & Zhenping Wang & Vincent Yao, 2020. "Valuing Long-Term Property Rights with Anticipated Political Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 27665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Milo Bianchi & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2019. "Ambiguity Preferences and Portfolio Choices: Evidence from the Field," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1486-1501, April.
  69. Lee, Velma & Viale, Ariel M., 2023. "Total factor productivity in East Asia under ambiguity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
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