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House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle

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Cited by:

  1. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
  2. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
  3. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Comovement In Buying Versus Renting In The Usa," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(3), pages 93-121, September.
  4. Segú, Mariona & Vignolles, Benjamin, 2018. "Taxing Vacant Dwellings: Can fiscal policy reduce vacancy?," MPRA Paper 85508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Siodla, James, 2015. "Razing San Francisco: The 1906 disaster as a natural experiment in urban redevelopment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 48-61.
  6. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Uzuner, Gizem & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 114-126.
  7. Carlos Pestana Barros & Zhongfei Chen & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Housing sales in urban Beijing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4495-4504, December.
  8. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  9. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Comovement in Buying versus Renting in the United States," Working Papers 201832, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  10. Elias Oikarinen, 2014. "Is Urban Land Price Adjustment More Sluggish than Housing Price Adjustment? Empirical Evidence," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(8), pages 1686-1706, June.
  11. Brueckner, Jan K., 2024. "Journal of Urban Economics, 1991–2007," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  12. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
  13. Shi, Song & Yang, Zan & Tripe, David & Zhang, Huan, 2015. "Uncertainty and new apartment price setting: A real options approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 574-591.
  14. Alan Sage & Mike Langen & Alex van de Minne, 2023. "Where is the opportunity in opportunity zones?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 338-371, March.
  15. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2018. "Managing Bubbles in the Korean Real Estate Market: A Real Options Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
  16. Wrenn, Douglas H. & Irwin, Elena G., 2015. "Time is money: An empirical examination of the effects of regulatory delay on residential subdivision development," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 25-36.
  17. Guillaume POUYANNE (GREThA-GRES), 2008. "Economics of discontinuous urban development (In French)," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2008-06, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
  18. Xufeng Jiang & Zelu Jia & Lefei Li & Tianhong Zhao, 2022. "Understanding Housing Prices Using Geographic Big Data: A Case Study in Shenzhen," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
  19. John Clapp & Piet Eichholtz & Thies Lindenthal, 2012. "Real Option Value over a Housing Market Cycle: West Berlin," ERSA conference papers ersa12p264, European Regional Science Association.
  20. Portillo, Javier E., 2019. "Land-assembly and externalities: How do positive post-development externalities affect land aggregation outcomes?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 104-124.
  21. Clapp, John M. & Bardos, Katsiaryna Salavei & Wong, S.K., 2012. "Empirical estimation of the option premium for residential redevelopment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 240-256.
  22. Tirthatanmoy Das & Kabir Dasgupta, 2018. "Evaluating the Impact of Mothers' Self-esteem on Early Childhood Home Environment: Evidence from NLSY," Working Papers 2018-03 JEL Classificatio, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2019.
  23. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
  24. Christidou Maria & Fountas Stilianos, 2018. "Uncertainty in the housing market: evidence from US states," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1-17, April.
  25. Douglas H. Wrenn & H. Allen Klaiber & David A. Newburn, 2017. "Confronting Price Endogeneity in a Duration Model of Residential Subdivision Development," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 661-682, April.
  26. Luis H.R. Alvarez & Jukka Lempa & Elias Oikarinen, 2009. "Do Standard Real Option Models Overestimate the Required Rate of Return of Real Estate Investment Opportunities?," Discussion Papers 52, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  27. Carozzi, Felipe, 2020. "The role of demand in land re-development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103690, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  28. Pennings, Enrico, 2008. "Privatization of real options," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 489-497, September.
  29. Felipe Morandé & Alexandra Petermann & Miguel Vargas, 2010. "Determinants of Urban Vacant Land," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 188-202, February.
  30. Seong-Hoon Cho & Seung Gyu Kim & Roland K. Roberts & Dayton M. Lambert & Taeyoung Kim, 2015. "Effects of Land-Related Policies on Land Development during a Real Estate Boom and a Recession," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 218-232, June.
  31. Albert Solé-Ollé & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal & José Mª Durán-Cabré & Thomas Davidoff & Mariona Segú, 2018. "Tourism and Gentrification in Global Cities: Could Fiscal Policy be Useful? / Turismo y gentrificación en ciudades globales: ¿podría ser útil la política fiscal? / Turisme i gentrificació en ciutats g," IEB Reports ieb_report_2_2018, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  32. Huang, Wei-Ling & Lin, Wen-Yuan & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2020. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  33. Luca Di Corato, 2018. "Rural land development under hyperbolic discounting: a real option approach," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 167-182, July.
  34. Yun‐chien Chang, 2011. "An Empirical Study of Court‐Adjudicated Takings Compensation in New York City: 1990–2003," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(2), pages 384-412, June.
  35. Steven Ott & W. Hughen & Dustin Read, 2012. "Optimal Phasing and Inventory Decisions for Large-Scale Residential Development Projects," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 888-918, November.
  36. L. Li & K. W. Chau, 2019. "What Motivates a Developer to Sell before Completion?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 209-232, August.
  37. Gang‐Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Tien Foo Sing & Xiaoyu Zhang, 2022. "Risk aversion and urban land development options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 767-788, September.
  38. Korthals Altes, Willem K., 2019. "Planning initiative: Promoting development by the use of options in Amsterdam," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 13-21.
  39. Belal Fallah & Mark Partridge & M. Olfert, 2012. "Uncertain economic growth and sprawl: evidence from a stochastic growth approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-617, December.
  40. Jean Cavailhès & Mohamed Hilal & Pierre Wavresky, 2011. "L’influence urbaine sur le prix des terres agricoles et ses conséquences pour l’agriculture," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 444(1), pages 99-125.
  41. Rohlin, Shawn & Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Ross, Amanda, 2014. "Tax avoidance and business location in a state border model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 34-49.
  42. McMillen, Daniel & Singh, Ruchi, 2022. "Land value estimation using teardowns," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
  43. Andrianos Tsekrekos & George Kanoutos, 2013. "Real Options Premia Implied from Recent Transactions in the Greek Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 152-168, July.
  44. Ganhammar, Kajsa, 2021. "The effect of regulatory uncertainty in green certificate markets: Evidence from the Swedish-Norwegian market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  45. Lu, Chien-Lin & Liao, Wen-Chi & Peng, Chien-Wen, 2020. "Developers’ perspectives on timing to build: Evidence from microdata of land acquisition and development," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  46. Renigier-Biłozor Małgorzata & d’Amato Maurizio, 2017. "The Valuation of Hope Value for Real Estate Development," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 91-101, June.
  47. Elias Oikarinen, 2009. "Dynamic linkages between housing and lot prices: Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Discussion Papers 53, Aboa Centre for Economics.
  48. Johannes Strobel & Binh Nguyen Thanh & Gabriel Lee, 2020. "Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Labor Demand Shocks on the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 345-372, June.
  49. Kim, Seung Gyu & Cho, Seong-Hoon & Classen, Roger, 2012. "Exploring Spatially Heterogeneous Effect of Property Tax Scheme on Land Development," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124709, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  50. Jean Cavailhés & Mohamed Hilal & Pierre Wavresky, 2011. "Option values on periurban land markets," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1629, European Regional Science Association.
  51. W. Bowman Cutter & Sofia F. Franco, 2012. "The uneasy case for lower Parking Standards," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp564, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
  52. Desen Lin, 2024. "From vacancy to verdancy? The impact of land options on the timing of vacant lot investment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1263-1307, September.
  53. Robert Grovenstein & James Kau & Henry Munneke, 2011. "Development Value: A Real Options Approach Using Empirical Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 321-335, October.
  54. Carozzi, Felipe, 2020. "The role of demand in land re-development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  55. Vifill KARLSSON, 2010. "The Relationship of House Price and Transportation Improvements: A General Case for Iceland; a Large but Thinly Populated European Country," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100024, EcoMod.
  56. Fan, Jianshuang & Zhou, Lin & Yu, Xiaofen & Zhang, Yanjiang, 2021. "Impact of land quota and land supply structure on China’s housing prices: Quasi-natural experiment based on land quota policy adjustment," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  57. Cutter, W. Bowman & Franco, Sofia F., 2012. "Do parking requirements significantly increase the area dedicated to parking? A test of the effect of parking requirements values in Los Angeles County," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 901-925.
  58. Yusupova, Alisa & Pavlidis, Nicos G. & Pavlidis, Efthymios G., 2023. "Dynamic linear models with adaptive discounting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1925-1944.
  59. Ivo Gasic, 2024. "Disentangling Land Financialisation: Insights from Santiago de Chile's Land Lease‐Purchase Contracts," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 115(1), pages 28-41, February.
  60. Yun-chien Chang, 2010. "An Empirical Study of Compensation Paid in Eminent Domain Settlements: New York City, 1990-2002," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 201-244, January.
  61. Groves, Jeremy R., 2009. "The impact of positive property tax differentials on the timing of development," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 739-748, November.
  62. Sheng-Hau Lin & Chia-Tsong Chen, 2020. "Pricing Rent for Social Housing Under Uncertainty," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-4.
  63. Geoffrey Meen, 2016. "Spatial housing economics: A survey," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(10), pages 1987-2003, August.
  64. Alisa Yusupova & Nicos G. Pavlidis & Efthymios G. Pavlidis, 2019. "Adaptive Dynamic Model Averaging with an Application to House Price Forecasting," Papers 1912.04661, arXiv.org.
  65. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  66. Vifill KARLSSON, 2010. "Modern Industrial Structure and Development of House PriceÂ’s Spatial Disparity: A General Case for Iceland; a Large but Thinly Populated European Country," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100023, EcoMod.
  67. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2020. "Detecting Possible Reduction of the Housing Bubble in Korea for Different Residential Types and Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, February.
  68. Kim, Byungil & Kim, Changyoon & Han, SangUk & Bae, JuHyun & Jung, Jaehoon, 2020. "Is it a good time to develop commercial photovoltaic systems on farmland? An American-style option with crop price risk," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  69. Vifill Karlsson, 2011. "The Relationship of Housing Prices and Transportation Improvements: Location and Marginal Impact," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 223-241.
  70. Linnerud, Kristin & Simonsen, Morten, 2017. "Swedish-Norwegian tradable green certificates: Scheme design flaws and perceived investment barriers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 560-578.
  71. Wang, Han & Wu, Xingyi & Wu, Di & Nie, Xin, 2019. "Will land development time restriction reduce land price? The perspective of American call options," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-83.
  72. Anglin, Paul M. & Dale-Johnson, David & Gao, Yanmin & Zhu, Guozhong, 2014. "Patterns of growth in Chinese cities: Implications of the land lease," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 87-107.
  73. Seung Gyu Kim & Roger Claassen, 2016. "Modelling land development processes using a sample selection regression," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 664-668, June.
  74. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chen, Zhongfei, 2014. "The housing market in Beijing and delays in sales: A fractional polynomial survival model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 296-300.
  75. Jean Cavailhès & Mohamed Hilal & Pierre Wavresky, 2011. "Urban influence of farmland prices and its impact on agriculture [L'influence urbaine sur le prix des terres agricoles et ses conséquences pour l'agriculture]," Post-Print hal-02645617, HAL.
  76. Alexandra Petermann Reifschneider & Felipe Morandé & Miguel Vargas, 2000. "The Determinants of Vacant Land Inside Cities: the Case of Santiago De Chile," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600071, EcoMod.
  77. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2023. "The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Auckland," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  78. L. Li & Helen X. H. Bao & K. W. Chau, 2023. "On the Strategic Timing of Sales by Real Estate Developers: To Wait or To Presell?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 169-196, January.
  79. Jean Cavailhès & Mohamed Hilal & Pierre Wavresky, 2013. "A new real option value due to "demographic risk" in the market for developable land," Post-Print hal-00939785, HAL.
  80. Jean Cavailhés & Isabelle Thomas, 2011. "The influence of urban sprawl on farmland prices in Belgium (refereed paper)," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1628, European Regional Science Association.
  81. Gabbe, C.J. & Kevane, Michael & Sundstrom, William A., 2021. "The effects of an “urban village” planning and zoning strategy in San Jose, California," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  82. Stéphane Virol & Guillaume Pouyanne & Sandrine Lyser & Frédéric Gaschet & Jeanne Dachary-Bernard, 2011. "L’impact de la littoralisation sur les marchés fonciers. Une approche comparative des côtes basque et charentaise," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 444(1), pages 127-154.
  83. Zan Yang & Shuping Wu, 2019. "Land acquisition outcome, developer risk attitude and land development timing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 233-271, August.
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