IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Uncertain economic growth and sprawl: evidence from a stochastic growth approach

Listed author(s):
  • Belal Fallah

    ()

  • Mark Partridge

    ()

  • M. Olfert

    ()

This paper examines how the volatility of local economies, represented by uncertainty over future land rents, affects urban sprawl. We develop a theoretic model that links sprawl to shocks to expected rent from future land development, among other factors. The econometric analysis draws upon panel data from US metropolitan areas. To measure urban sprawl, we construct a distinctive measure that captures the distribution of population density within metropolitan areas. Using a proxy for uncertainty over future land rents, we confirm the theoretic prediction that across US metropolitan areas, higher levels of uncertainty are associated with lower levels of sprawl. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00168-011-0466-0
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer & Western Regional Science Association in its journal The Annals of Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 49 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 589-617

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:49:y:2012:i:3:p:589-617
DOI: 10.1007/s00168-011-0466-0
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Web page: http://www.wrsaonline.org/newsite/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://link.springer.com/journal/168

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Glaeser, Edward L. & Kahn, Matthew E., 2004. "Sprawl and urban growth," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics,in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 56, pages 2481-2527 Elsevier.
  2. Moretti, Enrico, 2011. "Local Labor Markets," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier.
  3. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
  4. McFarlane, Alastair, 1999. "Taxes, Fees, and Urban Development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 416-436, November.
  5. Brueckner, Jan K. & Thisse, Jacques-Francois & Zenou, Yves, 1999. "Why is central Paris rich and downtown Detroit poor?: An amenity-based theory," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 91-107, January.
  6. Davis, Morris A. & Palumbo, Michael G., 2008. "The price of residential land in large US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 352-384, January.
  7. Marcy Burchfield & Henry G. Overman & Diego Puga & Matthew A. Turner, 2006. "Causes of Sprawl: A Portrait from Space," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(2), pages 587-633.
  8. Thomas J. Nechyba & Randall P. Walsh, 2004. "Urban Sprawl," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 177-200, Fall.
  9. JunJie Wu, 2010. "Economic Fundamentals And Urban-Suburban Disparities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 570-591.
  10. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S., 2003. "The waxing and waning of regional economies: the chicken-egg question of jobs versus people," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 76-97, January.
  11. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
  12. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C., 1996. "Urban Development with Lags," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 87-113, January.
  13. Mark D. Partridge, 2005. "Does Income Distribution Affect U.S. State Economic Growth?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 363-394.
  14. Anas, Alex, 1978. "Dynamics of urban residential growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 66-87, January.
  15. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
  16. James L. Paddock & Daniel R. Siegel & James L. Smith, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508.
  17. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416-416.
  18. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Stavins, Robert N., 2002. "The effects of potential land development on agricultural land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 561-581, November.
  19. John Carruthers, 2003. "Growth at the fringe: The influence of political fragmentation in United States metropolitan areas," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 82(4), pages 475-499, November.
  20. Wu, JunJie, 2006. "Environmental amenities, urban sprawl, and community characteristics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 527-547, September.
  21. Mills, David E., 1981. "Growth, speculation and sprawl in a monocentric city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 201-226, September.
  22. Irwin, Elena G. & Bockstael, Nancy E., 2004. "Land use externalities, open space preservation, and urban sprawl," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 705-725, November.
  23. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
  24. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
  25. Jordan, Stacy & Ross, John P. & Usowski, Kurt G., 1998. "U.S. suburbanization in the 1980s1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 611-627, September.
  26. Margo, Robert A., 1992. "Explaining the postwar suburbanization of population in the United States: The role of income," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 301-310, May.
  27. Alberto Moel, 2002. "When Are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 35-64, March.
  28. John R. Ottensmann, 1977. "Urban Sprawl, Land Values and the Density of Development," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(4), pages 389-400.
  29. A. Steven Holland & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2000. "The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination of Competing Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-64.
  30. John Carruthers, 2003. "Growth at the fringe: The influence of political fragmentation in United States metropolitan areas," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 82(4), pages 475-499, November.
  31. John I. Carruthers & Alexander C. Vias, 2005. "Urban, Suburban, and Exurban Sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West: Evidence from Regional Adjustment Models," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 21-48.
  32. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-514, June.
  33. Mills, Edwin S. & Price, Richard, 1984. "Metropolitan suburbanization and central city problems," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.
  34. JunJie Wu, 2001. "Environmental Amenities and the Spatial Pattern of Urban Sprawl," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 691-697.
  35. Harrison, David Jr. & Kain, John F., 1974. "Cumulative urban growth and urban density functions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 61-98, January.
  36. Brueckner, Jan K & Fansler, David A, 1983. "The Economics of Urban Sprawl: Theory and Evidence on the Spatial Sizes of Cities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 479-482, August.
  37. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-349, June.
  38. Cunningham, Christopher R., 2006. "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-31, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:49:y:2012:i:3:p:589-617. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Rebekah McClure)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.