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Optimal Phasing and Inventory Decisions for Large-Scale Residential Development Projects

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  • Steven Ott
  • W. Hughen
  • Dustin Read

Abstract

Land developers in select economic environments have been found to build in large increments and hold substantial amounts of inventory despite their ability to mitigate risk by phasing the production of residential lots. Such behavior was observed in numerous metropolitan areas throughout the southeastern and southwestern United States in the years leading up to financial crises, resulting in inventories of tens of thousands of lots in cities such as Atlanta, Las Vegas and Orlando, just to name a few. The model presented in this paper explores the rationale behind the choices made by developers in these markets and others by extending the real options framework to concurrently estimate optimal phasing and inventory decisions for large-scale residential development projects. Modeled interactions between several variables indicate that full development, smooth phased development and lumpy development can all be optimal under different market conditions, with each pattern feeding back into inventory levels and lot pricing. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Ott & W. Hughen & Dustin Read, 2012. "Optimal Phasing and Inventory Decisions for Large-Scale Residential Development Projects," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 888-918, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:45:y:2012:i:4:p:888-918
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-011-9299-y
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    3. Yuanyuan Huang & Scott N. Lieske & Yan Liu, 2023. "Factors influencing vertical urban development at the parcel scale: The case in Brisbane, Australia," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(3), pages 694-708, March.
    4. Siu Kei Wong & Ling Li & Paavo Monkkonen, 2019. "How do Developers Price New Housing in a Highly Oligopolistic City?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 22(3), pages 309-333.
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    6. Wang, Han & Wu, Xingyi & Wu, Di & Nie, Xin, 2019. "Will land development time restriction reduce land price? The perspective of American call options," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-83.
    7. W. Hughen & Dustin Read, 2014. "Inclusionary Housing Policies, Stigma Effects and Strategic Production Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 589-610, May.
    8. Kwabena Mintah, 2018. "Real Options Analysis in Residential Property Development Decision-Making in Australia: Perspective of Executives," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 473-520.
    9. Rahmat Aris Pratomo & D. Ary A. Samsura & Erwin van der Krabben, 2020. "Transformation of Local People’s Property Rights Induced by New Town Development (Case Studies in Peri-Urban Areas in Indonesia)," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-24, July.
    10. Siu Kei Wong & Ling Li & Paavo Monkkonen, 2019. "How do Developers Price New Housing in a Highly Oligopolistic City?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(3), pages 307-331.
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    12. Patrick McAllister & Emma Street & Peter Wyatt, 2013. "Shovel-Ready? An Empirical Investigation of Stalled Residential Sites," ERES eres2013_259, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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