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The hidden dangers of historical simulation

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Cited by:

  1. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Fernanda Maria Muller & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2017. "On a robust risk measurement approach for capital determination errors minimization," Papers 1707.09829, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
  2. Cotter, John, 2007. "Varying the VaR for unconditional and conditional environments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1338-1354, December.
  3. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
  4. Chlebus Marcin, 2017. "EWS-GARCH: New Regime Switching Approach to Forecast Value-at-Risk," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 3(50), pages 01-25, December.
  5. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2013. "A comparison of the original and revised Basel market risk frameworks for regulating bank capital," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 249-268.
  6. Benjamin R. Auer & Benjamin Mögel, 2016. "How Accurate are Modern Value-at-Risk Estimators Derived from Extreme Value Theory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6288, CESifo.
  7. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2009. "Are interest rate options important for the assessment of interest rate risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1376-1387, August.
  8. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2012. "When more is less: Using multiple constraints to reduce tail risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2693-2716.
  9. Karagiannidis, Iordanis & Sykes Wilford, D., 2015. "Modeling fund and portfolio risk: A bi-modal approach to analyzing risk in turbulent markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 19-26.
  10. Pérignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2010. "The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-377, February.
  11. Katerina Rigana & Ernst C. Wit & Samantha Cook, 2024. "Navigating Market Turbulence: Insights from Causal Network Contagion Value at Risk," Papers 2402.06032, arXiv.org.
  12. Alexander N. Bogin & Nataliya Polkovnichenko & William M. Doerner, 2015. "Additional Market Risk Shocks: Prepayment Uncertainty and Option-Adjusted Spreads," FHFA Staff Working Papers 15-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
  13. Borut Jereb, 2013. "Risk Assessment Model Respecting Segments Of The Public," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 9(3), pages 75-94.
  14. Michele Leonardo Bianchi, 2023. "Assessing and forecasting the market risk of bank securities holdings: a data-driven approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(4), pages 1-23, December.
  15. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "First-passage probability, jump models, and intra-horizon risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 20-40, January.
  16. Juan Ignacio Pe~na & Rosa Rodriguez & Silvia Mayoral, 2022. "Tail Risk of Electricity Futures," Papers 2202.01732, arXiv.org.
  17. Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2010. "Heavy-tailed distributions in VaR calculations," HSC Research Reports HSC/10/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  18. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
  19. Carol Alexander & José María Sarabia, 2012. "Quantile Uncertainty and Value‐at‐Risk Model Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(8), pages 1293-1308, August.
  20. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2014. "Bank regulation and international financial stability: A case against the 2006 Basel framework for controlling tail risk in trading books," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 107-130.
  21. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Pei, Pei, 2012. "Pitfalls in backtesting Historical Simulation VaR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2233-2244.
  22. Shiva Zamani & Alireza Moslemi Haghighi & Hamid Arian, 2023. "Temporal Volatility Surface Projection: Parametric Surface Projection Method for Derivatives Portfolio Risk Management," Papers 2311.14985, arXiv.org.
  23. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Pei, Pei, 2012. "Pitfalls in backtesting Historical Simulation VaR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2233-2244.
  24. Pablo Farías, 2014. "Divulgación del valor en riesgo (VaR) previo a la crisis en el sector bancario espanol," Revista Ad-Minister, Universidad EAFIT, July.
  25. Alexander, Carol & Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2008. "Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2220-2236, October.
  26. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Rodríguez, Rosa & Mayoral, Silvia, 2020. "Tail risk of electricity futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  27. Po-Cheng Wu & Cheng-Kun Kuo & Chih-Wei Lee, 2012. "Evaluation Of Multi-Asset Value At Risk: Evidence From Taiwan," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(4), pages 23-34.
  28. Dias, Alexandra, 2013. "Market capitalization and Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5248-5260.
  29. Vladimir Rankovic & Mikica Drenovak & Branko Uroševic & Ranko Jelic, 2016. "Mean Univariate-GARCH VaR Portfolio Optimization: Actual Portfolio Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5731, CESifo.
  30. Frésard, Laurent & Pérignon, Christophe & Wilhelmsson, Anders, 2011. "The pernicious effects of contaminated data in risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2569-2583, October.
  31. Jolanta Tamošaitienė & Vahidreza Yousefi & Hamed Tabasi, 2021. "Project Portfolio Construction Using Extreme Value Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, January.
  32. Ranković, Vladimir & Ivanović, Miloš & Urošević, Branko & Jelic, Ranko, 2017. "Market risk management in a post-Basel II regulatory environmentAuthor-Name: Drenovak, Mikica," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(3), pages 1030-1044.
  33. Colletaz, Gilbert & Hurlin, Christophe & Pérignon, Christophe, 2013. "The Risk Map: A new tool for validating risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3843-3854.
  34. Danai Likitratcharoen & Pan Chudasring & Chakrin Pinmanee & Karawan Wiwattanalamphong, 2023. "The Efficiency of Value-at-Risk Models during Extreme Market Stress in Cryptocurrencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
  35. Gregor Weiß, 2013. "Copula-GARCH versus dynamic conditional correlation: an empirical study on VaR and ES forecasting accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 179-202, August.
  36. Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2011. "Are Copula-GoF-tests of any practical use? Empirical evidence for stocks, commodities and FX futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 173-188, May.
  37. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
  38. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2021. "Regulation of bank proprietary trading post 2007–09 crisis: An examination of the Basel framework and Volcker rule," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  39. Pérignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2010. "Diversification and Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 55-66, January.
  40. Iordanis Karagiannidis & D. Sykes Wilford, 2015. "Modeling fund and portfolio risk: A bi‐modal approach to analyzing risk in turbulent markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 19-26, April.
  41. Chan, Ngai Hang & Sit, Tony, 2016. "Artifactual unit root behavior of Value at risk (VaR)," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-93.
  42. Meng, Xiaochun & Taylor, James W., 2018. "An approximate long-memory range-based approach for value at risk estimation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 377-388.
  43. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista, 2017. "Bank Capital Regulation of Trading Portfolios: An Assessment of the Basel Framework," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 603-634, June.
  44. Jean-Paul Laurent & Hassan Omidi Firouzi, 2022. "Market Risk and Volatility Weighted Historical Simulation After Basel III," Working Papers hal-03679434, HAL.
  45. Fernanda Maria Müller & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2024. "Comparison of Value at Risk (VaR) Multivariate Forecast Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 75-110, January.
  46. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2012. "Bank regulation and stability: An examination of the Basel market risk framework," Discussion Papers 09/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  47. Chrétien, Stéphane & Coggins, Frank, 2010. "Performance and conservatism of monthly FHS VaR: An international investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 323-333, December.
  48. Shaozhen Chen & Bangqian Zhang & Jinjin Deng, 2018. "Research on Risk Measurement in Financial Market Based on GARCH-VaR and FHS¡ª¡ªAn Example of Chinese Bond Market," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 102-116, July.
  49. Alejandro Bernales & Diether W. Beuermann & Gonzalo Cortazar, 2014. "Thinly traded securities and risk management," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1 Year 20), pages 5-48, June.
  50. Ledermann, Daniel & Alexander, Carol, 2012. "Further properties of random orthogonal matrix simulation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 56-79.
  51. Carol Alexander & Jose Maria Sarabia, 2010. "Endogenizing Model Risk to Quantile Estimates," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2010-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  52. El Bouhadi, Abdelhamid & Achibane, Khalid, 2009. "The Predictive Power of Conditional Models: What Lessons to Draw with Financial Crisis in the Case of Pre-Emerging Capital Markets?," MPRA Paper 19482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. O’Brien, James & Szerszeń, Paweł J., 2017. "An evaluation of bank measures for market risk before, during and after the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 215-234.
  54. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista & Shu Yan, 2009. "Reducing estimation risk in optimal portfolio selection when short sales are allowed," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 281-305.
  55. Aramonte, Sirio & Giudice Rodriguez, Marius del & Wu, Jason, 2013. "Dynamic factor Value-at-Risk for large heteroskedastic portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4299-4309.
  56. Ales Kresta & Tomas Tichy, 2012. "International Equity Portfolio Risk Modeling: The Case of the NIG Model and Ordinary Copula Functions," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(2), pages 141-161, May.
  57. Cheng, Wan-Hsiu & Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2011. "Skewness and leptokurtosis in GARCH-typed VaR estimation of petroleum and metal asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 160-173, January.
  58. Benjamin Mögel & Benjamin R. Auer, 2018. "How accurate are modern Value-at-Risk estimators derived from extreme value theory?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 979-1030, May.
  59. Siburg, Karl Friedrich & Stoimenov, Pavel & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Forecasting portfolio-Value-at-Risk with nonparametric lower tail dependence estimates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 129-140.
  60. Giannopoulos, Kostas, 2008. "Nonparametric, conditional pricing of higher order multivariate contingent claims," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1907-1915, September.
  61. James M. O'Brien & Pawel J. Szerszen, 2014. "An Evaluation of Bank VaR Measures for Market Risk During and Before the Financial Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  62. Fries, Christian P. & Nigbur, Tobias & Seeger, Norman, 2017. "Displaced relative changes in historical simulation: Application to risk measures of interest rates with phases of negative rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-198.
  63. Fernanda Maria Müller & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2018. "Numerical comparison of multivariate models to forecasting risk measures," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 29-50, February.
  64. Apergis, Emmanuel & Apergis, Iraklis & Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "A new macro stress testing approach for financial realignment in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 52-80.
  65. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Paulo Sergio Ceretta, 2015. "Shortfall Deviation Risk: An alternative to risk measurement," Papers 1501.02007, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
  66. David Happersberger & Harald Lohre & Ingmar Nolte, 2020. "Estimating portfolio risk for tail risk protection strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1107-1146, September.
  67. Basu, Sanjay, 2011. "Comparing simulation models for market risk stress testing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 329-339, August.
  68. Anja Vinzelberg & Benjamin R. Auer, 2022. "Unprofitability of food market investments," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2887-2910, October.
  69. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2015. "A comparison of Expected Shortfall estimation models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 14-47.
  70. Marcin Łupiński, 2013. "Comparison of Alternative Approaches to VaR Evaluation," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 33.
  71. Pritsker, Matt, 2019. "An overview of regulatory stress-testing and steps to improve it," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 39-43.
  72. Thor Pajhede, 2015. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Generalized Markov Framework," Discussion Papers 15-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  73. Ilhami KARAHANOGLU, 2020. "The VaR comparison of the fresh investment toolBITCOIN with other conventional investment tools, gold, stock exchange (BIST100) and foreign currencies (EUR/USD VS TRL)," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 160-181, December.
  74. Ibrahim Ergen, 2015. "Two-step methods in VaR prediction and the importance of fat tails," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1013-1030, June.
  75. Ian Laker & Chun-Kai Huang & Allan Ernest Clark, 2017. "Dependent bootstrapping for value-at-risk and expected shortfall," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(4), pages 301-322, November.
  76. Branko Uroševic & Mikica Drenovak & Vladimir Rankovic & Ranko Jelic & Milos Ivanovic, 2016. "Market Risk Management in a Post-Basel II Regulatory Environment," CESifo Working Paper Series 6293, CESifo.
  77. Jae‐Yun Jun & Victor Lebreton & Yves Rakotondratsimba, 2021. "Forecasting negative yield‐curve distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 367-386, April.
  78. Carol Alexander & Daniel Ledermann, 2012. "ROM Simulation: Applications to Stress Testing and VaR," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2012-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  79. Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Leatham, David J., 2017. "Hedging downside risk of oil refineries: A vine copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 493-507.
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