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Heavy-tailed distributions in VaR calculations

  • Adam Misiorek
  • Rafal Weron

The essence of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) computations is estimation of low quantiles in the portfolio return distributions. Hence, the performance of market risk measurement methods depends on the quality of distributional assumptions on the underlying risk factors. This chapter is intended as a guide to heavy-tailed models for VaR-type calculations. We first describe stable laws and their lighter-tailed generalizations, the so-called truncated and tempered stable distributions. Next we study the class of generalized hyperbolic laws, which – like tempered stable distributions – can be classified somewhere between infinite variance stable laws and the Gaussian distribution. Then we discuss copulas, which enable us to construct a multivariate distribution function from the marginal (possibly different) distribution functions of n individual asset returns in a way that takes their dependence structure into account. This dependence structure may be no longer measured by correlation, but by other adequate functions like rank correlation, comonotonicity or tail dependence. Finally, we provide numerical examples.

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File URL: http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_10_05.pdf
File Function: Original version, 2010
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Paper provided by Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology in its series HSC Research Reports with number HSC/10/05.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1005
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  1. Rafal Weron, 2001. "Levy-stable distributions revisited: tail index > 2 does not exclude the Levy-stable regime," HSC Research Reports HSC/01/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  2. Jérémy Poirot & Peter Tankov, 2006. "Monte Carlo Option Pricing for Tempered Stable (CGMY) Processes," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 327-344, December.
  3. Aleksander Janicki & Aleksander Weron, 1994. "Can One See Alpha-stable Variables and Processes?," HSC Research Reports HSC/94/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  4. Eberlein, Ernst & Keller, Ulrich & Prause, Karsten, 1998. "New Insights into Smile, Mispricing, and Value at Risk: The Hyperbolic Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 371-405, July.
  5. Andrew Matacz, 1997. "Financial modeling and option theory with the truncated Lévy process," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500035, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
  6. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
  7. GARCIA, René & RENAULT, Eric & VEREDAS, David, 2006. "Estimation of stable distributions by indirect inference," CORE Discussion Papers 2006112, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-24, October.
  9. Chen, Ying & Härdle, Wolfgang & Jeong, Seok-Oh, 2008. "Nonparametric Risk Management With Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(483), pages 910-923.
  10. Weron, Rafal, 1996. "On the Chambers-Mallows-Stuck method for simulating skewed stable random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 165-171, June.
  11. Janek, Agnieszka & Kluge, Tino & Weron, Rafal & Wystup, Uwe, 2010. "FX Smile in the Heston Model," MPRA Paper 25491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Lombardi, Marco J., 2007. "Bayesian inference for [alpha]-stable distributions: A random walk MCMC approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 2688-2700, February.
  13. repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/136280 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Borak, Szymon & Misiorek, Adam & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "Models for Heavy-tailed Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 25494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Rama Cont & Marc Potters & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 1997. "Scaling in stock market data: stable laws and beyond," Papers cond-mat/9705087, arXiv.org.
  16. Philipp Hartmann & Jon Danielsson, 1998. "The Cost of Conservatism: Extreme Returns, Value-at Risk, and the Basle Multiplicaiton Factor," FMG Special Papers sp100, Financial Markets Group.
  17. Pritsker, Matthew, 2006. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 561-582, February.
  18. Lillestøl, Jostein, 2000. "Bayesian estimation of NIG-parameters by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,112, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  19. Aleksander Janicki & Aleksander Weron, 1994. "Simulation and Chaotic Behavior of Alpha-stable Stochastic Processes," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook9401.
  20. McCulloch, J Huston, 1997. "Measuring Tail Thickness to Estimate the Stable Index Alpha: A Critique," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 74-81, January.
  21. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
  22. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
  23. Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2005. "Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0501.
  24. Richard B. Olsen & Ulrich A. Müller & Michel M. Dacorogna & Olivier V. Pictet & Rakhal R. Davé & Dominique M. Guillaume, 1997. "From the bird's eye to the microscope: A survey of new stylized facts of the intra-daily foreign exchange markets (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 95-129.
  25. Trivedi, Pravin K. & Zimmer, David M., 2007. "Copula Modeling: An Introduction for Practitioners," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-111, April.
  26. Dominicy, Yves & Veredas, David, 2013. "The method of simulated quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 235-247.
  27. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
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