IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v622y2023ics0378437123004417.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling and simulation of financial returns under non-Gaussian distributions

Author

Listed:
  • De Domenico, Federica
  • Livan, Giacomo
  • Montagna, Guido
  • Nicrosini, Oreste

Abstract

It is well known that the probability distribution of high-frequency financial returns is characterized by a leptokurtic, heavy-tailed shape. This behavior undermines the typical assumption of Gaussian log-returns behind the standard approach to risk management and option pricing. Yet, there is no consensus on what class of probability distributions should be adopted to describe financial returns and different models used in the literature have demonstrated, to varying extent, an ability to reproduce empirically observed stylized facts. In order to provide some clarity, in this paper we perform a thorough study of the most popular models of return distributions as obtained in the empirical analyses of high-frequency financial data. We compare the statistical properties and simulate the dynamics of non-Gaussian financial fluctuations by means of Monte Carlo sampling from the different models in terms of realistic tail exponents. Our findings show a noticeable consistency between the considered return distributions in the modeling of the scaling properties of large price changes. We also discuss the convergence rate to the asymptotic distributions of the non-Gaussian stochastic processes and we study, as a first example of possible applications, the impact of our results on option pricing in comparison with the standard Black and Scholes approach.

Suggested Citation

  • De Domenico, Federica & Livan, Giacomo & Montagna, Guido & Nicrosini, Oreste, 2023. "Modeling and simulation of financial returns under non-Gaussian distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 622(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:622:y:2023:i:c:s0378437123004417
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2023.128886
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437123004417
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2023.128886?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matsushita, Raul & Rathie, Pushpa & Da Silva, Sergio, 2003. "Exponentially damped Lévy flights," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 326(3), pages 544-555.
    2. Weron, Rafal, 1996. "Correction to: "On the Chambers–Mallows–Stuck Method for Simulating Skewed Stable Random Variables"," MPRA Paper 20761, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    3. Pan, Raj Kumar & Sinha, Sitabhra, 2008. "Inverse-cubic law of index fluctuation distribution in Indian markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2055-2065.
    4. Rafał Weron, 2001. "Levy-Stable Distributions Revisited: Tail Index> 2does Not Exclude The Levy-Stable Regime," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 209-223.
    5. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 991-1012.
    6. Ole Peters & William Klein, 2012. "Ergodicity breaking in geometric Brownian motion," Papers 1209.4517, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2013.
    7. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-280, April.
    8. Kleinert, Hagen, 2002. "Option pricing from path integral for non-Gaussian fluctuations. Natural martingale and application to truncated Lèvy distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(1), pages 217-242.
    9. Lisa Borland, 2002. "Option Pricing Formulas based on a non-Gaussian Stock Price Model," Papers cond-mat/0204331, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2002.
    10. Michael, Fredrick & Johnson, M.D., 2003. "Financial market dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 525-534.
    11. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    13. Aban, Inmaculada B. & Meerschaert, Mark M. & Panorska, Anna K., 2006. "Parameter Estimation for the Truncated Pareto Distribution," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 270-277, March.
    14. Constantino Tsallis & Celia Anteneodo & Lisa Borland & Roberto Osorio, 2003. "Nonextensive statistical mechanics and economics," Papers cond-mat/0301307, arXiv.org.
    15. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices," Papers cond-mat/9905305, arXiv.org.
    16. Lisa Borland, 2002. "A theory of non-Gaussian option pricing," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 415-431.
    17. Liuren Wu, 2006. "Dampened Power Law: Reconciling the Tail Behavior of Financial Security Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1445-1474, May.
    18. Svetlana I. Boyarchenko & Sergei Z. Levendorskiǐ, 2000. "Option Pricing For Truncated Lévy Processes," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 549-552.
    19. Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
    20. Lisa Borland, 2002. "A Theory of Non_Gaussian Option Pricing," Papers cond-mat/0205078, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2002.
    21. Sergio Da Silva & Raul Matsushita & Iram Gleria, 2002. "Scaling power laws in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(3), pages 1-12.
    22. Weron, Rafal, 1996. "On the Chambers-Mallows-Stuck method for simulating skewed stable random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 165-171, June.
    23. Austin Gerig & Javier Vicente & Miguel A. Fuentes, 2009. "Model for Non-Gaussian Intraday Stock Returns," Papers 0906.3841, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2009.
    24. Lisa Borland & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2004. "A non-Gaussian option pricing model with skew," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 499-514.
    25. Gupta, Hari M. & Campanha, José R., 1999. "The gradually truncated Lévy flight for systems with power-law distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 231-239.
    26. Andrew Matacz, 2000. "Financial Modeling And Option Theory With The Truncated Levy Process," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 143-160.
    27. Miccichè, Salvatore & Bonanno, Giovanni & Lillo, Fabrizio & Mantegna, Rosario N, 2002. "Volatility in financial markets: stochastic models and empirical results," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 756-761.
    28. Pierre Cizeau & Yanhui Liu & Martin Meyer & C. -K. Peng & H. Eugene Stanley, 1997. "Volatility distribution in the S&P500 Stock Index," Papers cond-mat/9708143, arXiv.org.
    29. Stjepan Beguv{s}i'c & Zvonko Kostanjv{c}ar & H. Eugene Stanley & Boris Podobnik, 2018. "Scaling properties of extreme price fluctuations in Bitcoin markets," Papers 1803.08405, arXiv.org.
    30. Figueiredo, Annibal & Gleria, Iram & Matsushita, Raul & Da Silva, Sergio, 2003. "Autocorrelation as a source of truncated Lévy flights in foreign exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 601-625.
    31. J. Michael Harrison & Stanley R. Pliska, 1981. "Martingales and Stochastic Integrals in the Theory of Continous Trading," Discussion Papers 454, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    32. V. Plerou & P. Gopikrishnan & L. A. N. Amaral & M. Meyer & H. E. Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of price fluctuations of individual companies," Papers cond-mat/9907161, arXiv.org.
    33. Y. Malevergne & V. Pisarenko & D. Sornette, 2005. "Empirical distributions of stock returns: between the stretched exponential and the power law?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 379-401.
    34. Mariani, M.C. & Liu, Y., 2007. "Normalized truncated Levy walks applied to the study of financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(2), pages 590-598.
    35. Drożdż, S. & Forczek, M. & Kwapień, J. & Oświe¸cimka, P. & Rak, R., 2007. "Stock market return distributions: From past to present," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 59-64.
    36. Eryiğit, Mehmet & Çukur, Sadik & Eryiğit, Resul, 2009. "Tail distribution of index fluctuations in World markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(9), pages 1879-1886.
    37. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical distributions of Chinese stock returns at different microscopic timescales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(2), pages 495-502.
    38. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    39. Alfonso, Léster & Mansilla, Ricardo & Terrero-Escalante, César A., 2012. "On the scaling of the distribution of daily price fluctuations in the Mexican financial market index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(10), pages 2990-2996.
    40. Michael Grabchak & Gennady Samorodnitsky, 2010. "Do financial returns have finite or infinite variance? A paradox and an explanation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 883-893.
    41. Cizeau, Pierre & Liu, Yanhui & Meyer, Martin & Peng, C.-K. & Eugene Stanley, H., 1997. "Volatility distribution in the S&P500 stock index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 441-445.
    42. Praetz, Peter D, 1972. "The Distribution of Share Price Changes," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-55, January.
    43. S. Drozdz & M. Forczek & J. Kwapien & P. Oswiecimka & R. Rak, 2007. "Stock market return distributions: from past to present," Papers 0704.0664, arXiv.org.
    44. L. Borland & J. P. Bouchaud, 2004. "A Non-Gaussian Option Pricing Model with Skew," Papers cond-mat/0403022, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2004.
    45. Kullmann, L & Töyli, J & Kertesz, J & Kanto, A & Kaski, K, 1999. "Characteristic times in stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 98-110.
    46. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2002:i:3:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Cassidy, Daniel T. & Hamp, Michael J. & Ouyed, Rachid, 2010. "Pricing European options with a log Student’s t-distribution: A Gosset formula," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(24), pages 5736-5748.
    48. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    49. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frédéric Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Post-Print hal-00621058, HAL.
    50. Begušić, Stjepan & Kostanjčar, Zvonko & Eugene Stanley, H. & Podobnik, Boris, 2018. "Scaling properties of extreme price fluctuations in Bitcoin markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 400-406.
    51. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    52. Rak, R. & Drożdż, S. & Kwapień, J., 2007. "Nonextensive statistical features of the Polish stock market fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(1), pages 315-324.
    53. Bormetti, Giacomo & Cisana, Enrica & Montagna, Guido & Nicrosini, Oreste, 2007. "A non-Gaussian approach to risk measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 532-542.
    54. Saralees Nadarajah & Samuel Kotz, 2006. "The modified Weibull distribution for asset returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(6), pages 449-449.
    55. Miranda, L.Couto & Riera, R., 2001. "Truncated Lévy walks and an emerging market economic index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 509-520.
    56. Celikoglu, Ahmet & Tirnakli, Ugur, 2018. "Skewness and kurtosis analysis for non-Gaussian distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 499(C), pages 325-334.
    57. López Martín, María del Mar & García, Catalina García & García Pérez, José, 2012. "Treatment of kurtosis in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(5), pages 2032-2045.
    58. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    59. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Martin Meyer & Luis A Nunes Amaral & H Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Inverse Cubic Law for the Probability Distribution of Stock Price Variations," Papers cond-mat/9803374, arXiv.org, revised May 1998.
    60. Katz, Yuri A. & Tian, Li, 2013. "q-Gaussian distributions of leverage returns, first stopping times, and default risk valuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(20), pages 4989-4996.
    61. Tsallis, Constantino & Anteneodo, Celia & Borland, Lisa & Osorio, Roberto, 2003. "Nonextensive statistical mechanics and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 89-100.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Van Tran, Quang & Kukal, Jaromir, 2024. "Renyi entropy based design of heavy tailed distribution for return of financial assets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 637(C).
    2. Dufera, Tamirat Temesgen, 2024. "Fractional Brownian motion in option pricing and dynamic delta hedging: Experimental simulations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federica De Domenico & Giacomo Livan & Guido Montagna & Oreste Nicrosini, 2023. "Modeling and Simulation of Financial Returns under Non-Gaussian Distributions," Papers 2302.02769, arXiv.org.
    2. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    3. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and COVID-19," Papers 2107.06659, arXiv.org.
    4. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 991-1012.
    5. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: II. Agent-based models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 1013-1041.
    6. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frédéric Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Post-Print hal-00621058, HAL.
    7. Suárez-García, Pablo & Gómez-Ullate, David, 2013. "Scaling, stability and distribution of the high-frequency returns of the Ibex35 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1409-1417.
    8. Viktor Stojkoski & Trifce Sandev & Lasko Basnarkov & Ljupco Kocarev & Ralf Metzler, 2020. "Generalised geometric Brownian motion: Theory and applications to option pricing," Papers 2011.00312, arXiv.org.
    9. Trindade, Marco A.S. & Floquet, Sergio & Filho, Lourival M. Silva, 2020. "Portfolio theory, information theory and Tsallis statistics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    10. López Martín, María del Mar & García, Catalina García & García Pérez, José, 2012. "Treatment of kurtosis in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(5), pages 2032-2045.
    11. Sosa-Correa, William O. & Ramos, Antônio M.T. & Vasconcelos, Giovani L., 2018. "Investigation of non-Gaussian effects in the Brazilian option market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 496(C), pages 525-539.
    12. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2020. "Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market," Papers 2010.15403, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    13. Marian Gidea & Yuri Katz, 2017. "Topological Data Analysis of Financial Time Series: Landscapes of Crashes," Papers 1703.04385, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2017.
    14. Restocchi, Valerio & McGroarty, Frank & Gerding, Enrico, 2019. "The stylized facts of prediction markets: Analysis of price changes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 515(C), pages 159-170.
    15. S. M. Duarte Queiros, 2005. "On non-Gaussianity and dependence in financial time series: a nonextensive approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 475-487.
    16. Wang, Xiao-Tian & Li, Zhe & Zhuang, Le, 2017. "European option pricing under the Student’s t noise with jumps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 848-858.
    17. Hua, Jia-Chen & Chen, Lijian & Falcon, Liberty & McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2015. "Variable diffusion in stock market fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 221-233.
    18. Bucsa, G. & Jovanovic, F. & Schinckus, C., 2011. "A unified model for price return distributions used in econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3435-3443.
    19. Lasko Basnarkov & Viktor Stojkoski & Zoran Utkovski & Ljupco Kocarev, 2019. "Option Pricing With Heavy-Tailed Distributions Of Logarithmic Returns," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(07), pages 1-35, November.
    20. Derksen, M. & Kleijn, B. & de Vilder, R., 2022. "Heavy tailed distributions in closing auctions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:622:y:2023:i:c:s0378437123004417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.