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Stock market return distributions: From past to present

Author

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  • Drożdż, S.
  • Forczek, M.
  • Kwapień, J.
  • Oświe¸cimka, P.
  • Rak, R.

Abstract

We show that recent stock market fluctuations are characterized by the cumulative distributions whose tails on short, minute time scales exhibit power scaling with the scaling index α>3 and this index tends to increase quickly with decreasing sampling frequency. Our study is based on high-frequency recordings of the S&P500, DAX and WIG20 indices over the interval May 2004–May 2006. Our findings suggest that dynamics of the contemporary market may differ from the one observed in the past. This effect indicates a constantly increasing efficiency of world markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Drożdż, S. & Forczek, M. & Kwapień, J. & Oświe¸cimka, P. & Rak, R., 2007. "Stock market return distributions: From past to present," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 59-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:383:y:2007:i:1:p:59-64
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2007.04.130
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Ting & Wang, Yue & Li, Ming-Xia, 2018. "Price performance following stock’s IPO in different price limit systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 953-966.
    2. Provash Mali & Amitabha Mukhopadhyay, 2015. "Multifractal characterization of gold market: a multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Papers 1506.08847, arXiv.org.
    3. Stanisław Drożdż & Ludovico Minati & Paweł Oświȩcimka & Marek Stanuszek & Marcin Wa̧torek, 2019. "Signatures of the Crypto-Currency Market Decoupling from the Forex," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Jarosław Kwapień & Sylwia Gworek & Stanisław Drożdż & Andrzej Górski, 2009. "Analysis of a network structure of the foreign currency exchange market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(1), pages 55-72, June.
    5. Ducha, F.A. & Atman, A.P.F. & Bosco de Magalhães, A.R., 2021. "Information flux in complex networks: Path to stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    6. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Rafa{l} Kowalski & Pawe{l} O'swic{e}cimka & Rafa{l} Rak & Robert Gc{e}barowski, 2018. "Dynamical variety of shapes in financial multifractality," Papers 1809.06728, arXiv.org.
    7. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and COVID-19," Papers 2107.06659, arXiv.org.
    8. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Marcin Wk{a}torek, 2023. "What is mature and what is still emerging in the cryptocurrency market?," Papers 2305.05751, arXiv.org.
    9. Hasan, Rashid & Mohammed Salim, M., 2017. "Power law cross-correlations between price change and volume change of Indian stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 620-631.
    10. De Domenico, Federica & Livan, Giacomo & Montagna, Guido & Nicrosini, Oreste, 2023. "Modeling and simulation of financial returns under non-Gaussian distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 622(C).
    11. do Nascimento, José Cláudio, 2021. "The personal wealth importance to the intertemporal choice," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    12. Kostanjcar, Zvonko & Jeren, Branko & Juretic, Zeljan, 2012. "Impact of uncertainty in expected return estimation on stock price volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5563-5571.
    13. P. Peirano & D. Challet, 2012. "Baldovin-Stella stochastic volatility process and Wiener process mixtures," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 85(8), pages 1-12, August.
    14. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek & Marcin Wk{a}torek, 2019. "Signatures of crypto-currency market decoupling from the Forex," Papers 1906.07834, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
    15. Charutha, S. & Gopal Krishna, M. & Manimaran, P., 2020. "Multifractal analysis of Indian public sector enterprises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    16. Wu, Ting & Wang, Yue & Li, Ming-Xia, 2017. "Post-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 464-471.
    17. Jaroslaw Kwapien & Sylwia Gworek & Stanislaw Drozdz & Andrzej Gorski, 2009. "Analysis of a network structure of the foreign currency exchange market," Papers 0906.0480, arXiv.org.
    18. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    19. Massing, Till & Ramos, Arturo, 2021. "Student’s t mixture models for stock indices. A comparative study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    20. Robert Gk{e}barowski & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2019. "Detecting correlations and triangular arbitrage opportunities in the Forex by means of multifractal detrended cross-correlations analysis," Papers 1906.07491, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    21. Xie, Wen-Jie & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2010. "On the growth of primary industry and population of China’s counties," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3876-3882.
    22. Mali, Provash & Mukhopadhyay, Amitabha, 2014. "Multifractal characterization of gold market: A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 361-372.
    23. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2020. "Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market," Papers 2010.15403, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    24. Challet, Damien & Peirano, Pier Paolo, 2008. "The ups and downs of the renormalization group applied to financial time series," MPRA Paper 9770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Fonseca, Carla L.G. & de Resende, Charlene C. & Fernandes, Danilo H.C. & Cardoso, Rodrigo T.N. & de Magalhães, A.R. Bosco, 2021. "Is the choice of the candlestick dimension relevant in econophysics?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).

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