IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/0906.3841.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Model for Non-Gaussian Intraday Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Austin Gerig
  • Javier Vicente
  • Miguel A. Fuentes

Abstract

Stock prices are known to exhibit non-Gaussian dynamics, and there is much interest in understanding the origin of this behavior. Here, we present a model that explains the shape and scaling of the distribution of intraday stock price fluctuations (called intraday returns) and verify the model using a large database for several stocks traded on the London Stock Exchange. We provide evidence that the return distribution for these stocks is non-Gaussian and similar in shape, and that the distribution appears stable over intraday time scales. We explain these results by assuming the volatility of returns is constant intraday, but varies over longer periods such that its inverse square follows a gamma distribution. This produces returns that are Student distributed for intraday time scales. The predicted results show excellent agreement with the data for all stocks in our study and over all regions of the return distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Austin Gerig & Javier Vicente & Miguel A. Fuentes, 2009. "Model for Non-Gaussian Intraday Stock Returns," Papers 0906.3841, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0906.3841
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0906.3841
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eckhard Platen, 2006. "A Benchmark Approach To Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 131-151, January.
    2. David Heath & Eckhard Platen & Martin Schweizer, 2001. "A Comparison of Two Quadratic Approaches to Hedging in Incomplete Markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 385-413, October.
    3. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169, June.
    4. Shephard, Neil (ed.), 2005. "Stochastic Volatility: Selected Readings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257201, Decembrie.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dashti Moghaddam, M. & Serota, R.A., 2021. "Combined multiplicative–Heston model for stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 561(C).
    2. Marian Gidea & Yuri Katz, 2017. "Topological Data Analysis of Financial Time Series: Landscapes of Crashes," Papers 1703.04385, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2017.
    3. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and COVID-19," Papers 2107.06659, arXiv.org.
    4. De Domenico, Federica & Livan, Giacomo & Montagna, Guido & Nicrosini, Oreste, 2023. "Modeling and simulation of financial returns under non-Gaussian distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 622(C).
    5. Mauro Politi & Nicolas Millot & Anirban Chakraborti, 2011. "The near-extreme density of intraday log-returns," Papers 1106.0039, arXiv.org.
    6. Mauro Politi & Nicolas Millot & Anirban Chakraborti, 2011. "The near-extreme density of intraday log-returns," Post-Print hal-00827942, HAL.
    7. Federica De Domenico & Giacomo Livan & Guido Montagna & Oreste Nicrosini, 2023. "Modeling and Simulation of Financial Returns under Non-Gaussian Distributions," Papers 2302.02769, arXiv.org.
    8. Xu, Dan & Beck, Christian, 2016. "Transition from lognormal to χ2-superstatistics for financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 453(C), pages 173-183.
    9. M. Dashti Moghaddam & R. A. Serota, 2018. "Combined Mutiplicative-Heston Model for Stochastic Volatility," Papers 1807.10793, arXiv.org.
    10. Wang, Xiao-Tian & Li, Zhe & Zhuang, Le, 2017. "European option pricing under the Student’s t noise with jumps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 848-858.
    11. Cassidy, Daniel T., 2011. "Describing n-day returns with Student’s t-distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(15), pages 2794-2802.
    12. Politi, Mauro & Millot, Nicolas & Chakraborti, Anirban, 2012. "The near-extreme density of intraday log-returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 147-155.
    13. Gangadhar Nayak & Amit Kumar Singh & Dilip Senapati, 2021. "Computational Modeling of Non-Gaussian Option Price Using Non-extensive Tsallis’ Entropy Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1353-1371, April.
    14. Kangrong Tan & Meifen Chu, 2012. "Estimation Of Portfolio Return And Value At Risk Using A Class Of Gaussian Mixture Distributions," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(1), pages 97-107.
    15. Ko, Bonggyun & Song, Jae Wook, 2018. "A simple analytics framework for evaluating mean escape time in different term structures with stochastic volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 398-412.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miguel A. Fuentes & Austin Gerig & Javier Vicente, 2009. "Universal Behavior of Extreme Price Movements in Stock Markets," Papers 0912.5448, arXiv.org.
    2. Tak Siu, 2006. "Option Pricing Under Autoregressive Random Variance Models," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 62-75.
    3. Wayne King Ming Chan, 2015. "RAROC-Based Contingent Claim Valuation," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2015, January-A.
    4. Eckhard Platen & David Taylor, 2016. "Loading Pricing of Catastrophe Bonds and Other Long-Dated, Insurance-Type Contracts," Papers 1610.09875, arXiv.org.
    5. Katz, Yuri A. & Tian, Li, 2013. "q-Gaussian distributions of leverage returns, first stopping times, and default risk valuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(20), pages 4989-4996.
    6. Francesca Biagini & Alessandra Cretarola & Eckhard Platen, 2012. "Local Risk-Minimization under the Benchmark Approach," Papers 1210.2337, arXiv.org.
    7. Wayne King Ming Chan, 2015. "RAROC-Based Contingent Claim Valuation," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 21, July-Dece.
    8. Raoul Golan & Austin Gerig, 2013. "A Stochastic Feedback Model for Volatility," Papers 1306.4975, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2013.
    9. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    10. Assaf Almog & Ferry Besamusca & Mel MacMahon & Diego Garlaschelli, 2015. "Mesoscopic Community Structure of Financial Markets Revealed by Price and Sign Fluctuations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    11. Ataurima Arellano, Miguel & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "Empirical modeling of high-income and emerging stock and Forex market return volatility using Markov-switching GARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Sebastiano Michele Zema & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tiziano Squartini & Diego Garlaschelli, 2021. "Mesoscopic Structure of the Stock Market and Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2112.06544, arXiv.org.
    13. S. Reimann, 2007. "Price dynamics from a simple multiplicative random process model," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 56(4), pages 381-394, April.
    14. Nicolas Langrené & Geoffrey Lee & Zili Zhu, 2016. "Switching To Nonaffine Stochastic Volatility: A Closed-Form Expansion For The Inverse Gamma Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(05), pages 1-37, August.
    15. Large, Jeremy, 2011. "Estimating quadratic variation when quoted prices change by a constant increment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 2-11, January.
    16. Nicola Bruti-Liberati & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen & Erik Schlögl, 2009. "Alternative Defaultable Term Structure Models," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, March.
    17. Paulo Ferreira & Éder J.A.L. Pereira & Hernane B.B. Pereira, 2020. "From Big Data to Econophysics and Its Use to Explain Complex Phenomena," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-10, July.
    18. V. Alfi & L. Pietronero & A. Zaccaria, 2008. "Minimal Agent Based Model For The Origin And Self-Organization Of Stylized Facts In Financial Markets," Papers 0807.1888, arXiv.org.
    19. Eckhard Platen, 2003. "Pricing and Hedging for Incomplete Jump Diffusion Benchmark Models," Research Paper Series 110, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    20. Hatcher, Michael, 2011. "Time-varying volatility, precautionary saving and monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 440, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0906.3841. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.