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Least-squares forecast averaging

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Cited by:

  1. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 29-50, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  2. Tu, Yundong & Yi, Yanping, 2017. "Forecasting cointegrated nonstationary time series with time-varying variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 83-98.
  3. Yin, Anwen, 2015. "Forecasting and model averaging with structural breaks," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005727, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Hsiao, Cheng & Wan, Shui Ki, 2014. "Is there an optimal forecast combination?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 294-309.
  5. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Wang, Shouyang, 2014. "Frequentist model averaging for multinomial and ordered logit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 118-128.
  6. George Papadopoulos & Savas Papadopoulos & Thomas Sager, 2016. "Credit risk stress testing for EU15 banks: a model combination approach," Working Papers 203, Bank of Greece.
  7. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
  8. Hansen, Bruce E., 2010. "Averaging estimators for autoregressions with a near unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 142-155, September.
  9. Tae‐Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Forecasting Under Structural Breaks Using Improved Weighted Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1485-1501, December.
  10. Scott Wentland & Gary Cornwall & Jeremy G. Moulton, 2023. "For What It's Worth: Measuring Land Value in the Era of Big Data and Machine Learning," BEA Papers 0115, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  11. Dieudonne Mignamissi & Yselle Flora Malah Kuete, 2020. "What Makes Africans Happy?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2741-2754.
  12. Jan R. Magnus & Wendun Wang & Xinyu Zhang, 2016. "Weighted-Average Least Squares Prediction," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 1040-1074, June.
  13. Jingwen Tu & Hu Yang & Chaohui Guo & Jing Lv, 2021. "Model averaging marginal regression for high dimensional conditional quantile prediction," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2661-2689, December.
  14. Zhang, Xinyu & Liu, Chu-An, 2023. "Model averaging prediction by K-fold cross-validation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 280-301.
  15. Chen, Yi-Ting & Liu, Chu-An, 2023. "Model averaging for asymptotically optimal combined forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 592-607.
  16. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Penalized time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1355-1377.
  17. Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Model pooling and changes in the informational content of predictors: An empirical investigation for the euro area," Kiel Working Papers 1982, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  18. Claeskens, Gerda & Magnus, Jan R. & Vasnev, Andrey L. & Wang, Wendun, 2016. "The forecast combination puzzle: A simple theoretical explanation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 754-762.
  19. Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu & Zou, Guohua, 2010. "Least squares model averaging by Mallows criterion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 277-283, June.
  20. Gang Cheng & Sicong Wang & Yuhong Yang, 2015. "Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
  21. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "High Dimensional Time Series Regression Models: Applications to Statistical Learning Methods," Papers 2308.16192, arXiv.org.
  22. Hui Xiao & Yiguo Sun, 2020. "Forecasting the Returns of Cryptocurrency: A Model Averaging Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, November.
  23. Wei, Xiaoqiao & Yang, Yuhong, 2012. "Robust forecast combinations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 224-236.
  24. Jeongwoo Kim, 2019. "Optimally adjusted last cluster for prediction based on balancing the bias and variance by bootstrapping," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(11), pages 1-31, November.
  25. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. repec:bea:wpaper:0209 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Giovanni Caggiano & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2011. "Are more data always better for factor analysis? Results for the euro area, the six largest euro area countries and the UK," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 736-752, December.
  28. Cheng, Gang & Yang, Yuhong, 2015. "Forecast combination with outlier protection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 223-237.
  29. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakenas, 2019. "Does It Matter When Labor Market Reforms Are Implemented? The Role of the Monetary Policy Environment," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 66, Bank of Lithuania.
  30. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 974-992.
  31. Bayer, Sebastian, 2018. "Combining Value-at-Risk forecasts using penalized quantile regressions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 56-77.
  32. Aman Ullah & Alan T. K. Wan & Huansha Wang & Xinyu Zhang & Guohua Zou, 2017. "A semiparametric generalized ridge estimator and link with model averaging," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 370-384, March.
  33. Boot, Tom & Nibbering, Didier, 2019. "Forecasting using random subspace methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 391-406.
  34. Katja Heinisch & Rolf Scheufele, 2018. "Bottom-up or direct? Forecasting German GDP in a data-rich environment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 705-745, March.
  35. Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2018. "Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 99-108.
  36. Ando, Tomohiro & Tsay, Ruey, 2010. "Predictive likelihood for Bayesian model selection and averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-763, October.
  37. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Kade Sorensen, 2021. "A spatial model averaging approach to measuring house prices," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, December.
  38. Magnus, Jan R. & Vasnev, Andrey L., 2015. "Interpretation and use of sensitivity in econometrics, illustrated with forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 769-781.
  39. Aman Ullah & Huansha Wang, 2013. "Parametric and Nonparametric Frequentist Model Selection and Model Averaging," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-23, September.
  40. Esteban Fernández-Vázquez & Blanca Moreno, 2017. "Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 349-370, October.
  41. Qingfeng Liu & Ryo Okui & Arihiro Yoshimura, 2016. "Generalized Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8-10), pages 1692-1752, December.
  42. Jiang Du & Zhongzhan Zhang & Tianfa Xie, 2017. "Focused information criterion and model averaging in censored quantile regression," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 80(5), pages 547-570, July.
  43. Michael Schomaker & Christian Heumann, 2020. "When and when not to use optimal model averaging," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2221-2240, October.
  44. Xinyu Zhang & Alan T. K. Wan & Sherry Z. Zhou, 2011. "Focused Information Criteria, Model Selection, and Model Averaging in a Tobit Model With a Nonzero Threshold," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 132-142, June.
  45. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
  46. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2011. "The Financial Crisis from a Forecaster’s Perspective," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  47. Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Model averaging by jackknife criterion in models with dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 82-94.
  48. Pablo Pincheira-Brown & Andrea Bentancor & Nicolás Hardy, 2023. "An Inconvenient Truth about Forecast Combinations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-24, September.
  49. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2016. "Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-359.
  50. Dimitriadis, Timo & Liu, Xiaochun & Schnaitmann, Julie, 2020. "Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multi-step forecasts based on inference on the boundary," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
  51. Shangwei Zhao, 2014. "Model averaging based on James–Stein estimators," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 77(8), pages 1013-1022, November.
  52. Lu, Xun & Su, Liangjun, 2015. "Jackknife model averaging for quantile regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 40-58.
  53. Fiaschi, Davide & Gianmoena, Lisa & Parenti, Angela, 2018. "Spatial club dynamics in European regions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-130.
  54. Magnus, Jan R. & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2011. "Weighted average least squares estimation with nonspherical disturbances and an application to the Hong Kong housing market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 1331-1341, March.
  55. Tian Xie, 2019. "Forecast Bitcoin Volatility with Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, September.
  56. Conflitti, Cristina & De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico, 2015. "Optimal combination of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1096-1103.
  57. Yan Gao & Xinyu Zhang & Shouyang Wang & Terence Tai-leung Chong & Guohua Zou, 2019. "Frequentist model averaging for threshold models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(2), pages 275-306, April.
  58. Vanina Forget, 2012. "Doing well and doing good: a multi-dimensional puzzle," Working Papers hal-00672037, HAL.
  59. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Forecasting Nigerian Inflation using Model Averaging methods: Modelling Frameworks to Central Banks," MPRA Paper 88754, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
  60. Cheng, Xu & Hansen, Bruce E., 2015. "Forecasting with factor-augmented regression: A frequentist model averaging approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 280-293.
  61. Rongjie Jiang & Liming Wang & Yang Bai, 2021. "Optimal model averaging estimator for semi-functional partially linear models," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 84(2), pages 167-194, February.
  62. Cornelius Köpp & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim & Michael Breitner, 2014. "Decision Analytics with Heatmap Visualization for Multi-step Ensemble Data," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 6(3), pages 131-140, June.
  63. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  64. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2021. "CRPS Learning," Papers 2102.00968, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
  65. Qian, Wei & Rolling, Craig A. & Cheng, Gang & Yang, Yuhong, 2022. "Combining forecasts for universally optimal performance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 193-208.
  66. Pablo Pincheira, 2012. "Are Forecast Combinations Efficient?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 661, Central Bank of Chile.
  67. Liao, Jun & Zou, Guohua & Gao, Yan & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Model averaging prediction for time series models with a diverging number of parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 190-221.
  68. Tae-Hwy Lee & Ekaterina Seregina, 2020. "Learning from Forecast Errors: A New Approach to Forecast Combination," Working Papers 202024, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  69. Pinkwart, Nicolas, 2018. "Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany: A supply and demand side system of bridge equations," Discussion Papers 36/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  70. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Strachan, Rodney & Zurawski, Piotr, 2010. "False posteriors for the long-term growth determinants," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 144-146, December.
  71. Hounyo, Ulrich & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Estimating the variance of a combined forecast: Bootstrap-based approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 445-468.
  72. Qian, Yilin & Thompson, Ryan & Vasnev, Andrey L, 2022. "Global combinations of expert forecasts," Working Papers BAWP-2022-02, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
  73. Zhang, Xinyu & Lu, Zudi & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Adaptively combined forecasting for discrete response time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 80-91.
  74. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Liao, Jun & Zou, Guohua, 2020. "Corrected Mallows criterion for model averaging," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  76. Moiseev, Nikita & Volodin, Andrei, 2019. "Increasing the accuracy of macroeconomic time series forecast by incorporating functional and correlational dependencies between them," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 53, pages 119-137.
  77. Lehrer, Steven & Xie, Tian & Zhang, Xinyu, 2021. "Social media sentiment, model uncertainty, and volatility forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  78. Liao, Jun & Zong, Xianpeng & Zhang, Xinyu & Zou, Guohua, 2019. "Model averaging based on leave-subject-out cross-validation for vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 35-60.
  79. Gao, Yichen & Long, Wei & Wang, Zhengwei, 2015. "Estimating average treatment effect by model averaging," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 42-45.
  80. Ryan Thompson & Yilin Qian & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2022. "Flexible global forecast combinations," Papers 2207.07318, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  81. Samuels, Jon D. & Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2017. "Model Confidence Sets and forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 48-60.
  82. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Model Averaging in Economics," Working Papers wp2010_1008, CEMFI.
  83. Ng, Serena, 2013. "Variable Selection in Predictive Regressions," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 752-789, Elsevier.
  84. Ehsan Moradi & Luis Miranda-Moreno, 2022. "A Mixed Ensemble Learning and Time-Series Methodology for Category-Specific Vehicular Energy and Emissions Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, February.
  85. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Jan), pages 49-66.
  86. Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-061, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Sep 2013.
  87. Xu Cheng & Zhipeng Liao & Ruoyao Shi, 2013. "Uniform Asymptotic Risk of Averaging GMM Estimator Robust to Misspecification, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 25 Mar 2015.
  88. Magnus, J.R. & Wang, W. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2012. "WALS Prediction," Discussion Paper 2012-043, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  89. Zhao, Albert Bo & Cheng, Tingting, 2022. "Stock return prediction: Stacking a variety of models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 288-317.
  90. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-172/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  91. Zongwu Cai & Gunawan, 2023. "A Combination Forecast for Nonparametric Models with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202310, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2023.
  92. Guo, Chaohui & Lv, Jing & Wu, Jibo, 2021. "Composite quantile regression for ultra-high dimensional semiparametric model averaging," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  93. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
  94. Berrisch, Jonathan & Ziel, Florian, 2023. "CRPS learning," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  95. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.
  96. Schomaker, Michael & Wan, Alan T.K. & Heumann, Christian, 2010. "Frequentist Model Averaging with missing observations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3336-3347, December.
  97. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2022. "Forecast combination for VARs in large N and T panels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 142-164.
  98. Chor-yiu Sin & Shu-Hui Yu, 2019. "Order selection for possibly infinite-order non-stationary time series," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 103(2), pages 187-216, June.
  99. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "Model Averaging In Economics: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 46-75, February.
  100. Alena Skolkova, 2023. "Model Averaging with Ridge Regularization," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp758, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  101. Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2021. "Estimating cartel damages with model averaging approaches," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  102. Waychal, Nachiketas & Laha, Arnab Kumar & Sinha, Ankur, 2022. "Customized forecasting with Adaptive Ensemble Generator," IIMA Working Papers WP 2022-06-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  103. Magnus, J.R. & Wang, W. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2012. "WALS Prediction," Other publications TiSEM 7715e942-b446-4985-8216-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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