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False posteriors for the long-term growth determinants

Author

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  • Charemza, Wojciech W.
  • Strachan, Rodney
  • Zurawski, Piotr

Abstract

This paper shows: (1) bias may exist in Bayesian methods of selecting regressors; (2) the non-zero posterior inclusion probability of irrelevant regressors might affect the choice of regressors; and (3) how to compute the probability of falsely including a variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Charemza, Wojciech W. & Strachan, Rodney & Zurawski, Piotr, 2010. "False posteriors for the long-term growth determinants," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 144-146, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:109:y:2010:i:3:p:144-146
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
    2. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    3. Ronelle Burger, & Stan du Plessis, "undated". "Examining the Robustness of Competing Explanations of Slow Growth in African Countries," Discussion Papers 06/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    4. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    5. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Least-squares forecast averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 342-350, October.
    7. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, July.
    8. Garett Jones & W. Schneider, 2006. "Intelligence, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 71-93, March.
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