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False posteriors for the long-term growth determinants

  • Charemza, Wojciech W.
  • Strachan, Rodney
  • Zurawski, Piotr

This paper shows: (1) bias may exist in Bayesian methods of selecting regressors; (2) the non-zero posterior inclusion probability of irrelevant regressors might affect the choice of regressors; and (3) how to compute the probability of falsely including a variable.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-511GVKF-1/2/8f5b528a4fdabd43e874f8ed45c83017
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 109 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 144-146

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:109:y:2010:i:3:p:144-146
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Least-squares forecast averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 342-350, October.
  3. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
  4. Ronelle Burger, & Stan du Plessis, . "Examining the Robustness of Competing Explanations of Slow Growth in African Countries," Discussion Papers 06/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  5. Garett Jones & W. Joel Schneider, 2005. "Intelligence, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," Development and Comp Systems 0507005, EconWPA.
  6. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
  7. Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  8. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, 07.
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