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False posteriors for the long-term growth determinants

Author

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  • Charemza, Wojciech W.
  • Strachan, Rodney
  • Zurawski, Piotr

Abstract

This paper shows: (1) bias may exist in Bayesian methods of selecting regressors; (2) the non-zero posterior inclusion probability of irrelevant regressors might affect the choice of regressors; and (3) how to compute the probability of falsely including a variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Charemza, Wojciech W. & Strachan, Rodney & Zurawski, Piotr, 2010. "False posteriors for the long-term growth determinants," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 144-146, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:109:y:2010:i:3:p:144-146
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
    2. Garett Jones & W. Schneider, 2006. "Intelligence, Human Capital, and Economic Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 71-93, March.
    3. Lovell, Michael C, 1983. "Data Mining," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-12, February.
    4. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E., 2008. "Least-squares forecast averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 342-350, October.
    6. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    7. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2005. "How Robust Are the Linkages Between Religiosity and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0510, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    8. Bruce E. Hansen, 2007. "Least Squares Model Averaging," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1175-1189, July.
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