IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!)

Citations for "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?"

by Pesaran, H.M. & Timmermann, A.

For a complete description of this item, click here. For a RSS feed for citations of this item, click here.
as
in new window

  1. Chambers, Marcus J. & Ercolani, Joanne S. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Testing for seasonal unit roots by frequency domain regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 243-258.
  2. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  3. Stanislav Anatolyev & Natalia Kryzhanovskaya, 2009. "Directional Prediction of Returns under Asymmetric Loss: Direct and Indirect Approaches," Working Papers w0136, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  4. Junsoo Lee & John List & Mark Strazicich, 2005. "Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?," Natural Field Experiments 00486, The Field Experiments Website.
  5. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Predictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 187-228.
  6. Hamid Baghestani, 2010. "Predicting the direction of change in aggregate demand growth and its components," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 292-302.
  7. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Angelos Kanas & George Kouretas, 2001. "A cointegration approach to the lead-lag effect among size-sorted equity portfolios," Working Papers 0101, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  9. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society.
  10. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
  11. Christian M. Hafner & Oliver Linton, 2010. "Efficient estimation of a multivariate multiplicative volatility model," Post-Print hal-00732539, HAL.
  12. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
  13. Emilian Dobrescu, 2014. "Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-21, December.
  14. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Yang, Yang, 2006. "Bagging binary and quantile predictors for time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 465-497.
  15. Koo, Bonsoo & Linton, Oliver, 2012. "Estimation of semiparametric locally stationary diffusion models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 210-233.
  16. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
  17. Caterina Forti Grazzini & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Forecasting yield spreads under crisis-induced multiple breakpoints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1656-1664, December.
  18. Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Härdle & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2008. "Adaptive pointwise estimation in time-inhomogeneous time-series models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-002, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  19. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  20. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  21. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 189-201.
  22. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2016. "Structural breaks and monetary dynamics: A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 133-143.
  23. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  24. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen
    [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]
    ," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  26. repec:kie:kieliw:1987 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Rossen Anja, 2016. "On the Predictive Content of Nonlinear Transformations of Lagged Autoregression Residuals and Time Series Observations," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(3), pages 389-409, May.
  28. Ubilava, David, 2016. "The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability," Working Papers 2016-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  29. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
  30. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 201103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  31. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2006. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1273-1287, August.
  32. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chang, Shinhye & Balcilar, Mehmet & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: A fractional integration approach with structural breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 57-64.
  33. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  34. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  35. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2012. "Is the Purchasing Managers' Index useful for assessing the economy's strength? A directional analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1302-1311.
  36. Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli, 2007. "The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 77-94.
  37. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  38. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:292-302 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Gutierrez, Luciano & Erickson, Kenneth W. & Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "The Present Value Model, Farmland Prices and Structural Breaks," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24702, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  40. Cem Cakmakli & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-115/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  41. Giammarino, Flavia & Barrieu, Pauline, 2009. "A semiparametric model for the systematic factors of portfolio credit risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 655-670, September.
  42. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
  43. Norman Swanson & Valentina Corradi, 2004. "Predictive Density Accuracy Tests," Working Papers wp04-16, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  44. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.
  45. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.
  46. Ana Beatriz C. Galvao, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487.
  47. Anatolyev Stanislav, 2009. "Multi-Market Direction-of-Change Modeling Using Dependence Ratios," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
  48. Cizek, P., 2010. "Modelling Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Nonstationary Series," Discussion Paper 2010-84, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.