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Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information about the Economy?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
  3. Kwamie Dunbar, 2008. "The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox," Working papers 2008-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  4. Alexander Kurov, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187, November.
  5. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
  6. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
  7. Patrice T. Robitaille & Jennifer E. Roush, 2006. "How do FOMC actions and U.S. macroeconomic data announcements move Brazilian sovereign yield spreads and stock prices?," International Finance Discussion Papers 868, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2016. "Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 498-517, July.
  9. Mamun, Abdullah & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2014. "What explains the lack of monetary policy influence on bank holding companies?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 227-235.
  10. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403256, HAL.
  11. Jia, Chengcheng, 2023. "The informational effect of monetary policy and the case for policy commitment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  12. Gardner, Ben & Scotti, Chiara & Vega, Clara, 2022. "Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 387-409.
  13. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Monetary Momentum," CESifo Working Paper Series 6648, CESifo.
  14. Golez, Benjamin & Matthies, Ben, 2025. "Fed information effects: Evidence from the equity term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
  15. Gorodnichenko, Y & Coibion, O, 2016. "How inertial is monetary policy? implications for the fed’s exit strategy," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2qc6f09b, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  16. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 661-698, June.
  17. Kishor N. Kundan, 2010. "The Superiority of Greenbook Forecasts and the Role of Recessions," NBP Working Papers 74, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  18. Antonello D'Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 609-620, 04-05.
  19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 126-162, October.
  21. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
  22. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
  23. Christopher D. Cotton, 2022. "Looking Beyond the Fed: Do Central Banks Cause Information Effects?," Working Papers 22-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  24. Lavan Mahadeva, 2007. "A model of market surprises," Bank of England working papers 327, Bank of England.
  25. Chan, Kam Fong & Bowman, Robert G. & Neely, Christopher J., 2017. "Systematic cojumps, market component portfolios and scheduled macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 43-58.
  26. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
  27. Aymen Belgacem, 2009. "Fundamentals, Macroeconomic Announcements and Asset Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  28. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  29. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  31. Bennett Schmanski & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2023. "Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  32. Mariana García-Schmidt, 2024. "Is the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Alive in Emerging Markets?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1017, Central Bank of Chile.
  33. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & McNamara, Dylan C., 2014. "Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 296-312.
  34. de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1652-1669, December.
  35. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  37. Calvin He, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Equity Markets and the Information Effect," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  38. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  39. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
  41. Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2011. "An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 259-275, June.
  42. Friedrich Heinemann & Katrin Ullrich, 2007. "Does it Pay to Watch Central Bankers’ Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 155-185, June.
  43. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  44. Frankel, Alex & Kartik, Navin, 2018. "What kind of central bank competence?," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), May.
  45. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
  46. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2023. "Estimating Expected Asset Returns With the Present Value Model of Consumption and Fed Forecasts," MPRA Paper 119617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Samer Adra & Elie Menassa, 2023. "Uncertainty and corporate investments in response to the Fed's dual shocks," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 463-484, August.
  48. Thealexa Becker & Andrew Lee Smith, 2015. "Has Forward Guidance Been Effective?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 57-78.
  49. Jackson, Aaron L., 2010. "Policy futures markets with multiple goals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 45-54, March.
  50. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Goodhart Charles A.E., 2005. "The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, August.
  52. S. Rubun Dey & Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Sep), pages 417-464.
  53. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2008. "Commentary on \\"Assessing monetary policy effects using daily federal funds futures contracts\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 399-404.
  54. Michael Smolyansky & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2021. "Non-monetary news in Fed announcements: Evidence from the corporate bond market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-010r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 31 Jan 2025.
  55. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
  56. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Nicholas S. Magginas, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 1-22, June.
  57. Brett W. Fawley & Christopher J. Neely, 2014. "The evolution of Federal Reserve policy and the impact of monetary policy surprises on asset prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 73-109.
  58. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
  60. B. Onur Tas, 2012. "Why does the Federal Reserve Forecast Inflation Better than Everyone Else?," Working Papers 1207, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  61. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2020. "How Did Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect Economic Forecasts?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 206-220, January.
  62. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
  63. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2021. "Policy and Macro Signals from Central Bank Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 255-296, June.
  64. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Efficient forecast tests for conditional policy forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 293-303, October.
  65. Baghestani, Hamid, 2006. "Federal reserve vs. private forecasts of real net exports," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 349-353, June.
  66. Viacheslav Kramkov & Andrey Maksimov, 2024. "Monetary surprises and term structure of interest rates: Identification through heteroscedasticity," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 5-34.
  67. Hwang, Youngjin, 2025. "Information content in yield curve dynamics: Implications for monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  68. Karnaukh, Nina & Vokata, Petra, 2022. "Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 55-70.
  69. Seung Kwak, 2022. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect Prices of Corporate Loans?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  70. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2007. "Inflation Targeting as a Signalling Mechanism," Working Papers 0701, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  71. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  72. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  73. Vipul Bhatt & N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik Marfatia, 2020. "Estimating Excess Sensitivity and Habit Persistence in Consumption Using Greenbook Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 257-284, April.
  74. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
  75. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  76. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
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