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The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Zhang, Lu & Chen, Juejin & Wang, Yuan, 2024. "Appointing bankers as governors: Bureaucratic transfers and local government debt dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  2. H.R.A. Chamini Thilanka & J.G. Sri Ranjith, 2018. "The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
  3. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
  4. Chen, Suyun & Li, Zongze & Xie, Feixue & Xu, Xiaofang, 2024. "The signaling effect of local government debt: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
  5. Wu, Fulong, 2022. "Land financialisation and the financing of urban development in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  6. Chaowei Wang & Vo Phuong Mai Le & Kent Matthews & Peng Zhou, 2021. "Shadow banking activity and entrusted loans in a DSGE model of China," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(5), pages 445-469, September.
  7. Zhang, Jiarui & Shi, Yingying & Li, Lei, 2025. "Corporate response to monetary policies: Do foreign subsidiaries and local firms behave differently?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  8. Yan, Guan & Trück, Stefan & Liu, Zhidong & Gao, Hongwei, 2025. "Sectoral similarity of banks’ business loans and its negative externality in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  9. Mehmet Bac, 2024. "Ex ante transparency and corruption by networks," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(363), pages 1023-1046, July.
  10. Yu, Siming & Kang, Wan & Wenjun, Liu & Wang, Deli & Zheng, Jieying & Dong, Boyan, 2024. "The crowding out effect of local government debt expansion: Insights from commercial credit financing," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 858-872.
  11. H.R.A. Chamini Thilanka & J.G. Sri Ranjith, 2018. "The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
  12. Jingzhu Chen & Yuemei Ji, 2022. "Is Finance Good for Growth? New Evidence from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 9882, CESifo.
  13. Yunyang Ji & Xiaoxin Guo & Shihu Zhong & Lina Wu, 2020. "Land Financialization, Uncoordinated Development of Population Urbanization and Land Urbanization, and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, November.
  14. Wang, Yabin & Wu, Sharon Xiaohui, 2023. "Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  15. Liu, Shulin & Wang, Xianbin & Huang, Liangxiong, 2025. "Economic growth target fluctuation and bond issuance by LGFVs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  16. Gao, Haoyu & Ru, Hong & Tang, Dragon Yongjun, 2021. "Subnational debt of China: The politics-finance nexus," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 881-895.
  17. Liang, Quanxi & Huang, Jinlan & Liang, Mingjun & Li, Jingxiang, 2024. "Economic growth targets and bank risk exposure: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  18. Guo, Di & Jiang, Kun & Xu, Chenggang & Yang, Xiyi, 2023. "Geographic clusters, regional productivity and resource reallocation across firms: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
  19. Zhuo Chen & Zhiguo He & Chun Liu, 2018. "The Financing of Local Government in the People’s Republic of China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes," ADBI Working Papers 800, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  20. Jiang, Tianyuan & Zhang, Manling & Chen, Jing, 2025. "Demographic shifts and the strategic use of flexible off-budget debt tools," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  21. Zhang, Shidai & Tsai, Kellee S., 2024. "‘One System, Two Shadows’: A local public finance perspective on China's shadow banking system," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  22. Huang, Yi & Panizza, Ugo & Portes, Richard, 2024. "Corporate foreign bond issuance and interfirm loans in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  23. Gyourko, Joseph & Shen, Yang & Wu, Jing & Zhang, Rongjie, 2022. "Land finance in China: Analysis and review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  24. Han Gao & Minming Lan & Jie Li & Tianhang Zhou, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and local government debt: Evidence from China," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(4), pages 1103-1141, November.
  25. Bao, Helen X.H. & Wang, Ziyou & Wu, Robert Liangqi, 2024. "Understanding local government debt financing of infrastructure projects in China: Evidence based on accounting data from local government financing vehicles," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  26. Qu, Xi & Xu, Zhiwei & Yu, Jinxiang, 2025. "The pricing of local government bonds in China: A bank-government relationship perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  27. Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Sophia Chen & Pi-Han Tsai, 2017. "Credit and Fiscal Multipliers in China," IMF Working Papers 2017/273, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2020. "Cycles of credit expansion and misallocation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
  29. Hao, Tongtong & Sun, Ruiqi & Tombe, Trevor & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2020. "The effect of migration policy on growth, structural change, and regional inequality in China," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 112-134.
  30. Henderson, J. Vernon & Su, Dongling & Zhang, Qinghua & Zheng, Siqi, 2022. "Political manipulation of urban land markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
  31. Chen, Hongyi & Li, Ran & Tillmann, Peter, 2019. "Pushing on a string: State-owned enterprises and monetary policy transmission in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-40.
  32. Yu, Li & Lyu, Zhuoyang & Duan, Hao, 2024. "Plugging the gap: Debt pressure and the rise of forfeiture revenues in local governments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  33. Hu, Yushan & Zhang, Penglong, 2024. "International exposure and the transmission of financial shocks: Evidence from China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  34. Wang, He & Yao, Yang & Zhou, Yue, 2022. "Markets price politicians: Evidence from China’s municipal bond markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  35. Cheng, Feiyang & Gao, Haoyu & Pan, Xiaofei & Qian, Meijun & Zhou, Qing (Clara), 2025. "China's debt market: Evolution, regulation, and global integration," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  36. Li, Jie & Guo, Xiaowei & Huang, Bihong & Zhou, Tianhang, 2024. "Political connections and zombie firms: The role of the 2008 stimulus plan in China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  37. Li, Anjie & Qiu, Junjie, 2024. "Does local government debt promote firm green innovation? Evidence from the Chinese local government debt governance reform," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1046-1062.
  38. Wang, Jiaxin & Huang, Xiang & Gu, Qiankun & Song, Zilong & Sun, Ruiyi, 2023. "How does fintech affect bank risk? A perspective based on financialized transfer of government implicit debt risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  39. Cai, Yue, 2021. "Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  40. Xing, Jing & Tam, Eddy H.F., 2024. "Expressways and policy choices of local governments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  41. Dechun Liu & Xinye Zheng & Yihua Yu, 2022. "Public Debt Competition in Local China: Evidence and Mechanism of Spatial Interactions," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S2), pages 91-105, November.
  42. Yi Feng & Fulong Wu & Fangzhu Zhang, 2024. "Building state centrality through state selective financialization: Reconfiguring the land reserve system in China," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 56(3), pages 766-783, May.
  43. Huang, Zhonghua & Du, Xuejun, 2018. "Holding the market under the stimulus plan: Local government financing vehicles' land purchasing behavior in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-100.
  44. Shao, Wenbo & Chen, Yufan & Zhu, Huan, 2025. "Does the “Braking” of China's land finance facilitate economic “Shift Gears”? Evidence from investment decisions of real firms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 223-237.
  45. Xiong, Jiacai & Huang, Ling & Yang, Zelin & Wang, Xin, 2024. "The impact of local government debt on entrepreneurship: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment of local debt governance reform," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 501-519.
  46. Mark J. Flannery & Claire Yurong Hong & Baolian Wang, 2023. "The Effect of Government Reference Bonds on Corporate Borrowing Costs: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4051-4077, July.
  47. Zhu, Xiaodong, 2021. "The varying shadow of China's banking system," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 135-146.
  48. Liu, Yajie & Cui, Lijuan & Xiong, Yanyan & Yao, Xianguo, 2023. "Does the development of the Internet improve the allocative efficiency of production factors? Evidence from surveys of Chinese manufacturing firms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 161-174.
  49. Chang Liu & Wei Xiong, 2018. "China's Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 25297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Chen, Sophia & Ratnovski, Lev & Tsai, Pi-Han, 2019. "Credit and fiscal multipliers in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  51. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
  52. Liu, Yan & Wu, Guowei & Xiong, Chen, 2024. "Countercyclical central government transfers incentivize local government overborrowing: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  53. Han, Hongling & Mao, Yidan & Liu, Qiang, 2024. "The information externality of public firms’ employment in the municipal corporate bond market in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  54. Lombardi, Domenico & Siklos, Pierre L. & Xie, Xiangyou, 2018. "Monetary policy transmission in systemically important economies and China’s impact," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 61-79.
  55. Zou, Yanchi, 2024. "The impact of fiscal stimulus on employment: Evidence from China’s four-trillion RMB package," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  56. Guonan Ma & Jinzhao Chen, 2019. "The Role of Internally Financed Capex in Rising Chinese Corporate Debts," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 413-442, September.
  57. Cheng, Cheng & Huang, Bo & Wang, Yiqian & Hu, Lei, 2024. "Military background officials, risk awareness, and local government fiscal balance: Novel evidence from text analysis of Chinese local officials' news reports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  58. Zixing Wang & Meirong Zhang, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Associated with Land Finance in China: A Perspective Based on the Urban–Rural Income Gap," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15, September.
  59. Cong Yu & Linke Hou & Yuxia Lyu & Qi Zhang, 2022. "Political competition, spatial interactions, and default risk of local government debts in China," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 717-743, June.
  60. John M. Griffin & Clark Liu & Tao Shu, 2022. "Is the Chinese Anticorruption Campaign Authentic? Evidence from Corporate Investigations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7248-7273, October.
  61. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.
  62. Xi, Tianyang & Yao, Yang & Zhang, Muyang, 2018. "Capability and opportunism: Evidence from city officials in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1046-1061.
  63. Cheng, Yudan & Jia, Shanghui & Meng, Huan, 2022. "Fiscal policy choices of local governments in China: Land finance or local government debt?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 294-308.
  64. Qun Bao & Rui Huang & Guoqin Pan & Laixun Zhao, 2025. "Inside Job, Chinese Style: Suspicious Use of Public Funds under Fiscal Pressure," Discussion Paper Series DP2025-23, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  65. Fan, Meiting & Ma, Kaili & Shao, Shuai & Wang, Hui & Zhang, Ying, 2025. "Urban sprawl and environmentally sensitive productivity: Is urban sprawl a green spread?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 895-914.
  66. Chen, Jie & Wu, Fulong, 2022. "Housing and land financialization under the state ownership of land in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  67. Cheng, Wenyin & Liu, Shenglong & Meng, Bo & Gao, Yuning, 2025. "Impact of countercyclical fiscal policy on total factor productivity in state-owned enterprises: A corporate governance perspective," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1916-1930.
  68. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2022. "Bubbly bailout," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
  69. Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2020. "The transition of China's monetary policy regime: Before and after the four trillion RMB stimulus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 273-303.
  70. Chen, Ziyang & Chen, Ting & Lin, Yatang & Wang, Jin, 2025. "Building tall, falling short: An empirical assessment of Chinese skyscrapers," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  71. Wen, Bohui & Xu, Jiaxiang & Zhang, Li & Hao, Jing & Zhang, Zhongyi, 2024. "Spatial correlation of local government implicit debt tail risks in China and its spillover effects on the banking system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  72. Deng, Jiapin & Liu, Qiao, 2024. "Good finance, bad finance, and resource misallocation: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  73. Han, Yang & Liu, Zehao & Ma, Jun, 2020. "Growth cycles and business cycles of the Chinese economy through the lens of the unobserved components model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  74. Mo, Jiawei, 2018. "Land financing and economic growth: Evidence from Chinese counties," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 218-239.
  75. Qian, Ningyu, 2018. "Anti-corruption effects on the credit risk of local financing vehicles and the pricing of Chengtou bonds: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 162-168.
  76. Walker, Thomas & Zhang, Xueying & Zhang, Aoran & Wang, Yulin, 2021. "Fact or fiction: Implicit government guarantees in China’s corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  77. Jacopo Timini & Ayman El-Dahrawy Sánchez-Albornoz, 2019. "The impact of China on Latin America: trade and foreign direct investment channels," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUN.
  78. Feng, Yi & Wu, Fulong & Zhang, Fangzhu, 2022. "The development of local government financial vehicles in China: A case study of Jiaxing Chengtou," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  79. Zhang, Min & Zhang, Yahong, 2022. "Monetary stimulus policy in China: The bank credit channel," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  80. Gu, Yanwei & Guo, Jing & Liang, Xiao & Zhao, Yajun, 2022. "Does the debt-growth link differ across private and public debt? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  81. Huang, Zhonghua & Du, Xuejun, 2022. "Hometown favoritism and land allocation: Evidence from China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
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